NEW YORK — As of 10:23 a.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. markets are back in regular session after the Christmas pause, with trading expected to be lighter than usual in the year-end “in-between” stretch. [1]
Against that backdrop, CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA) is drawing fresh attention from investors balancing two competing narratives: a fast-growing restaurant footprint with strong unit economics, and a near-term slowdown in comparable sales growth that has kept valuation debates front and center. [2]
CAVA stock price check: where shares are trading right now
In mid-morning trading, CAVA shares were around $60.94, down roughly 1.26% from the prior close (with the session’s range near $60.59–$61.90). Volume was approaching ~299K shares at the time of the latest update.
That puts the stock in a familiar place for late 2025: volatile, headline-sensitive, and often reactive to analyst notes—especially during thin holiday-week liquidity when price moves can look bigger than the day’s underlying news flow would normally justify. [3]
The broader market setting: holiday-week tape, lighter liquidity, and why it matters
Friday’s session follows a holiday-shortened stretch in U.S. equities. Per the NYSE calendar, December 24 had an early close (1:00 p.m. ET) and December 25 was closed for Christmas Day, with regular trading resuming December 26. [4]
On the macro tape, reports heading into the open described mixed-to-soft futures and expectations for lighter trading because many global markets remained shut or partially staffed. [5]
For single-name stocks like CAVA, that matters: thin liquidity can amplify both rallies and pullbacks, particularly when momentum traders and headline-driven flows dominate intraday action.
Why CAVA has been moving: analyst coverage and “rating-driven” momentum
A big part of CAVA’s late-December chatter has been analyst coverage and price targets, including:
- Stifel reiterating a Buy rating with a $75 price target, following discussions with management about 2026 sales drivers and operations. [6]
- Truist Securities initiating coverage with a Buy rating and a $66 price target, highlighting CAVA’s position within Mediterranean fast-casual and outlining multiple same-store sales and unit growth drivers. [7]
That analyst activity helped feed a mid-December rebound narrative. Some market commentary explicitly tied a sharp up-day to the stock receiving a strong “buy” consensus framing. [8]
The key nuance for investors: analyst notes can move the stock, but the durability of those moves usually comes back to the fundamentals—especially traffic trends, restaurant margins, and new-unit returns.
The fundamental anchor: CAVA’s Q3 2025 results and what changed
CAVA’s most recent major fundamental datapoint remains its fiscal Q3 2025 report (ended Oct. 5, 2025), where the company posted:
- Revenue: $289.8 million (up 20.0% year over year)
- Same-restaurant sales growth: 1.9%
- 17 net new restaurants in the quarter, bringing the total to 415
- Restaurant-level profit margin: 24.6%
- Digital revenue mix: 37.6% [9]
Management also pointed to flat guest traffic as price/mix drove much of the comp, while noting continued strength in newer units and average unit volume (AUV) around $2.9 million. [10]
Updated FY2025 guidance: comps trimmed, margin range nudged down, pre-opening costs up
The bigger market takeaway from Q3 wasn’t just the quarter—it was the updated full-year 2025 outlook. CAVA revised guidance to:
- Same-restaurant sales growth: 3%–4% (down from 4%–6%)
- Restaurant-level profit margin: 24.4%–24.8% (down from 24.8%–25.2%)
- Pre-opening costs: $18.0–$19.0 million (up from $15.5–$16.5 million)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $148–$152 million (down from $152–$159 million)
- Net new openings: 68–70 (unchanged) [11]
For growth investors, this is the heart of the story: unit growth remains rapid, but near-term same-store sales expectations have cooled, and costs (including pre-opening) are being guided higher.
The macro pressure point: younger diners, value competition, and “discount wars”
CAVA’s guidance cuts didn’t happen in a vacuum. Multiple reports across business media have pointed to pressures on younger consumers and a more competitive restaurant environment:
- Reuters reported CAVA cited softer demand from budget-conscious consumers—particularly ages 25 to 35—and noted margin pressure tied in part to tariffs affecting imported beef and other cost drivers. [12]
- Investopedia framed the broader theme as younger Americans dining out less, with restaurant chains feeling the squeeze and consumers being more selective about frequency even if they still buy premium items. [13]
- MarketWatch highlighted competitive intensity and noted management’s reluctance to lean hard into discounting, describing heavy promotions as potentially unsustainable. [14]
This matters for CAVA specifically because the market often prices the company like a premium grower. When traffic goes flat and the comp relies more on price/mix, investors start stress-testing the “how long can this stay premium?” question.
Growth story still intact: expansion runway, AUVs, and new-unit performance
Even amid the comp slowdown, CAVA continues to emphasize new restaurant productivity and longer-term expansion plans. The company has repeatedly framed a path toward 1,000 restaurants by 2032, and recent results showed new units performing at high levels (management referenced the 2025 cohort trending above $3 million AUV). [15]
Industry coverage has also emphasized how fast-casual leaders are expanding store counts quickly—and how investor confidence increasingly hinges on whether new units and brand strength can offset softer same-store sales. [16]
In plain English: CAVA can keep winning even with softer comps if new stores open well, stay profitable, and don’t cannibalize older restaurants too aggressively.
Brand moves investors are tracking: loyalty upgrades, digital, and lifestyle marketing
CAVA has also been active outside of earnings with initiatives aimed at strengthening frequency and brand affinity:
- The company announced an enhanced loyalty structure with “status matching”, positioning it as an industry-first style move to pull in customers who already have status elsewhere. [17]
- CAVA launched The CAVA Shop, a branded merchandise store—an increasingly common play for consumer brands trying to turn customers into communities. [18]
Do these programs move the stock by themselves? Usually not. But they feed the longer-term question: Can CAVA widen the top of the funnel (new guests) while nudging existing guests to come back more often—without resorting to margin-eroding discounting? [19]
Wall Street forecasts: price targets cluster, but the range is wide
Across tracking sites that compile analyst forecasts, the price target spread remains unusually large—a signal that analysts broadly agree CAVA is interesting, but disagree on how to value the growth path under today’s consumer conditions.
Examples from widely followed consensus trackers:
- MarketBeat lists an average 12‑month target around $81 (with a high of $150 and low of $52, per its compilation at the time). [20]
- TipRanks shows a consensus view in the low-$70s (and highlights a high forecast in the $80s and a low in the low-$50s, depending on the analyst set and time window). [21]
Two important investor takeaways:
- Targets change quickly after earnings and guidance updates.
- For a growth stock, the earnings multiple you’re “allowed” to pay is tightly linked to traffic + comps + margin direction, not just store count.
The valuation argument: premium growth vs. slowing comps
CAVA has been a magnet for valuation debate all year. Recent commentary has emphasized:
- Even after a major drawdown from highs, some analysts still see the stock as expensive relative to near-term earnings (one widely read analysis framed it as trading at a very high multiple). [22]
- DCF-style models from Simply Wall St have published estimates implying fair value meaningfully below the market price in late December (one update pointed to a DCF fair value in the high-$30s versus a market price in the $60s, depending on assumptions). [23]
This doesn’t “prove” the stock is mispriced—DCF outputs are only as good as their growth and margin assumptions—but it clarifies why CAVA trades the way it does: small changes in comp or margin expectations can swing the story dramatically.
If you’re watching CAVA into the close—and into the next session—here’s what matters
The NYSE is open right now (regular close 4:00 p.m. ET). [24]
Whether you’re reading this during the session or after the bell, the same checklist applies for the next trading day:
1) Liquidity and year-end positioning
Holiday-week trading can be headline-driven and jumpy. Broader market coverage expects lighter activity, which can exaggerate moves. [25]
2) Next earnings timing: still best treated as “estimate until confirmed”
Some market calendars estimate CAVA’s next report in late February 2026 (e.g., Feb. 24), while others show early March 2026 dates. The company’s confirmed date can differ—so investors typically verify through official IR postings when available. [26]
3) The core operating metrics the market is rewarding (or punishing)
Based on management’s latest update, investors are likely to remain hyper-focused on:
- Same-restaurant sales growth (3%–4% FY2025 guide)
- Restaurant-level margins (24.4%–24.8% guide)
- Pace and profitability of new openings (68–70 net new guide)
- Cost pressures (including tariff-related food cost impacts and pre-opening cost inflation) [27]
4) Competitive intensity and discounting dynamics
The sector-wide question is whether fast-casual brands can defend traffic without leaning into promotions that erode margins—an issue CAVA management has directly addressed. [28]
The weird seasonal footnote: why December 26 gets extra attention
Market lore loves patterns, and December 26 is often discussed as part of the “Santa Claus rally” window (last five trading days of the year plus the first two of the next). One data-centric note highlighted how historically strong December 26 has been for the S&P 500. Seasonal stats aren’t destiny, but they can shape trader psychology on days like today. [29]
For CAVA, that mostly translates into one practical point: don’t over-interpret a single holiday-week candle—especially for a stock with CAVA’s history of sharp multi-day swings.
Bottom line: CAVA enters the final trading days of 2025 as a classic market tension stock: high-growth footprint expansion and strong unit volumes on one side, slower comp growth and margin sensitivity on the other. With multiple analysts reiterating bullish views into year-end, the next real decision point is likely to come from fundamentals—specifically whether CAVA can re-accelerate same-store sales while protecting restaurant-level margins in a price-sensitive consumer environment. [30]
References
1. apnews.com, 2. investor.cava.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. www.nyse.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. stockstory.org, 9. investor.cava.com, 10. investor.cava.com, 11. investor.cava.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.investopedia.com, 14. www.marketwatch.com, 15. investor.cava.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. investor.cava.com, 18. investor.cava.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. seekingalpha.com, 23. simplywall.st, 24. www.nyse.com, 25. apnews.com, 26. www.zacks.com, 27. investor.cava.com, 28. www.marketwatch.com, 29. www.marketwatch.com, 30. www.investing.com
