CBA Share Price Outlook: What to Expect from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) Before the ASX Opens on 1 December 2025

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) heads into the first trading session of December under intense scrutiny.

After a record-setting run earlier in 2025, CBA shares closed on Friday, 28 November at A$152.51, down 1.12% for the day and about 20.5% below their mid‑year peak around A$192. ^[1]

At the same time, November has just gone down as the worst month in over a decade for the Australian share market, with heavyweight banks sold off on concerns about lofty valuations, margin pressure and fading hopes of quick rate cuts. ^[2]

Between 28 and 30 November, a wave of fresh commentary, broker updates and macro analysis has sharpened the debate on CBA shares. Here’s how the picture looks for investors ahead of the ASX open on Monday, 1 December 2025.

1. Where the CBA share price stands now

Price, performance and scale

Last close (Fri 28 Nov 2025): A$152.51, down 1.12% on the day. ^[3]
52‑week range: A$140.21 – A$192.00. ^[4]
Current drawdown from 52‑week high: ~20.5%.
Market capitalisation: roughly A$255–290 billion, depending on source and exact share count. ^[5]
1‑year share price performance: about ‑3.8%. ^[6]

MarketScreener data show CBA down ~11% for the month of November, and modestly negative year‑to‑date, even after a powerful rally into mid‑year record highs. ^[7]

Valuation and income

Dividend and valuation data updated to 30 November paint the picture of a high‑quality franchise on a premium multiple:

Trailing dividend per share (FY25): A$4.85 (including the record A$2.60 final dividend paid 29 September). ^[8]
Trailing dividend yield: about 2.8–3.2% at the current price, depending on source and methodology. ^[9]
Forward dividend yield (based on FY25 payout): ~3.4%. ^[10]
Earnings per share (TTM): around A$6.0. ^[11]
Price‑to‑earnings ratio: roughly 29x trailing earnings – very high by global bank standards. ^[12]
Payout ratio: close to 80–90% of earnings, depending on the dataset. ^[13]

Specialist dividend site Digrin, updated as of 30 November 2025, shows CBA at A$152.51 with a 2.79% trailing yield, 3.41% forward yield, EPS of A$6.01, dividends of A$5.20 and a payout ratio near 89%. ^[14]

Taken together, that’s a mega‑cap bank on a growth‑stock multiple, paying a respectable but not spectacular yield — exactly the mix that is now being re‑rated as investors question how much they’re willing to pay for “safety”.

2. What changed between 28 and 30 November?

2.1 Worst November for the ASX in over a decade

On 28 November, a Reuters report (widely syndicated, including via The Economic Times) noted that the S&P/ASX 200 fell 3% in November, its worst November performance since 2014. Heavyweight banks led the decline as investors balked at stretch valuations and pressure on net interest margins, while strong inflation and jobs data dampened hopes for near‑term RBA rate cuts. Resources stocks, by contrast, “continued their upward trend”. ^[15]

This macro backdrop sets the stage for CBA: it’s not just one stock wobbling — it’s the entire “expensive banks” trade under review.

2.2 Friday’s close: banks lag as inflation worries linger

A detailed wrap on news.com.au described how the ASX 200 finished the week higher overall, but slipped slightly on Friday to close at 8,614.10. The laggards? The big four banks.

CBA “gave up” 1.12% to A$152.51, while ANZ, Westpac and NAB all also closed lower.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver linked the week’s gains to softer U.S. economic data (which boosted rate‑cut hopes offshore) but warned that rising local inflation is reviving talk that the next move by the RBA could be a hike in 2026. ^[16]

For Monday’s open, that leaves CBA in a market that likes global rate‑cut stories, but is increasingly anxious about Australia’s own inflation path.

2.3 Blue‑chip repricing: CBA down 20.5% from its high

The most pointed commentary over the weekend came from The Australian, with a feature on how the market is now punishing richly valued blue chips.

The article highlights CBA alongside CSL and WiseTech Global as major ASX names that have seen sharp pullbacks:

CBA is now 20.5% below its mid‑year record high, even after delivering solid profit numbers.
Analysts quoted in the piece (including VanEck’s Cameron McCormack) argue that “anything that’s been super‑expensive has come off”, and emphasise that a big price fall does not automatically make a stock cheap. ^[17]

In other words, CBA has derated, but in the eyes of many professionals it still isn’t a bargain on traditional valuation metrics.

2.4 A high‑profile fund manager turns bearish on the banks

Another article, also appearing over the last 24 hours in News Corp outlets, profiles Matt Haupt, lead portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management (WAM). Haupt says he is now bearish on Australian banks — including CBA — for two main reasons: ^[18]

Diverging monetary policy: while the U.S. edges toward rate cuts, Australian inflation remains sticky. That raises the risk of higher‑for‑longer local rates, which eventually bite households and credit growth.
Valuation and capital flows: CBA and other domestic “haven” stocks enjoyed huge inflows while China’s markets struggled. As sentiment toward China improves, Haupt expects capital to rotate out of expensive Australian banks into cheaper, more leveraged plays on global growth (notably resources).

His message is blunt: even after the pullback, CBA is still priced as a premium safety trade, and he prefers cyclical exposure elsewhere.

2.5 Morgans re‑rates CBA: deep downside to target price

On 29 November, a Motley Fool article outlined broker moves on several ASX 200 large caps and reported that Morgans:

Retains a “sell” rating on Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA).
Has a 12‑month price target of A$96.07. ^[19]

With CBA closing Friday at A$152.51, that implies about 37% downside to Morgans’ target.

This dovetails with earlier concerns from research houses such as Morningstar and Simply Wall St that have repeatedly described CBA as “materially overvalued” relative to its peers and its own growth prospects. ^[20]

2.6 Rask Media refocuses on fundamentals

Also on 30 November, Rask Media published “CBA share price: 4 key metrics to consider”, encouraging investors trying to value CBA to look beyond the headline share price and focus on underlying fundamentals. ^[21]

While the full article is paywalled to some users, the framing fits with the broader theme of the week: less excitement about “defensive growth”, more attention on whether earnings and dividends really justify the price.

3. What do current forecasts say about CBA shares?

3.1 Consensus targets: downside from current levels

Real‑time data from Investing.com as of 30 November 2025 show: ^[22]

Average 12‑month analyst target:A$121.28
High target:A$146
Low target:A$96.07 (matching Morgans’ view)
Implied downside from A$152.51: about 20.5% to the average target
Analyst recommendation breakdown:0 Buy, 14 Sell
Overall consensus rating:“Strong Sell”
Daily technical signal (moving averages & oscillators): also “Strong Sell”

This doesn’t mean the share price will fall — forecasts are often wrong — but it shows that sell‑side analysts, as a group, think the risk/reward now skews to the downside.

3.2 Simply Wall St: fair value around A$120

A detailed narrative piece from Simply Wall St on 21 November (still being widely referenced by investors into month‑end) argues that slower profit growth and rising costs are challenging the bull case for CBA. Key points: ^[23]

Recent quarterly results showed limited profit growth alongside a 6.1% increase in costs, heightening concerns about margin pressure.
Their long‑term scenario projects CBA’s revenue rising to A$31.9 billion and earnings to A$11.2 billion by 2028, implying about 4.9% annual revenue growth from roughly A$10.1 billion of earnings today.
On those forecasts, Simply Wall St calculates a fair value of A$120.47 per share — about 21% below the recent price.
Community fair‑value estimates for CBA span a wide range, from A$100 to A$147.26, illustrating deep disagreement even among investors who follow the stock closely.

The article’s conclusion is cautious: CBA can remain a high‑quality franchise, but cost growth plus regulatory and political scrutiny make it harder to justify a big valuation premium.

3.3 Dividend and valuation metrics reinforce the premium story

Dividend‑focused platforms and statistics pages add numerical backing to the “still expensive” narrative:

Digrin shows CBA on a P/E near 29x, a 2.79% trailing yield, 3.41% forward yield, A$5.20 in dividends per share, A$6.01 EPS and an ~89% payout ratio, all at A$152.51. ^[24]
StockAnalysis and other data providers give a 3.18% yield and A$4.85 in annual dividends, consistent with CBA’s record FY25 payout and the August ex‑dividend date. ^[25]

Meanwhile, a November piece in Firstlinks on “broken blue chips” explicitly uses CBA as a case study in single‑stock risk, noting that global banks trade on lower P/E ratios with rising earnings and dividends, while CBA’s premium multiple leaves less margin for error. ^[26]

The message investors will be weighing before Monday’s open: CBA still trades like a near‑perfect bank in a less‑than‑perfect world.

4. Macro backdrop: inflation, rates and the housing cycle

4.1 CBA’s own economists turn more hawkish

Commonwealth Bank’s Global Economic and Markets Research (GEMR) team has shifted markedly over 2025:

After hot Q3 inflation, Reuters reported that CBA economists abandoned their forecast for a further RBA rate cut in February and now expect inflation to remain above the 2–3% target band until at least mid‑2026. ^[27]
A separate Reuters piece noted that CBA and Citi are among the economists calling for an end to the current easing cycle, arguing that policy is not as restrictive as previously thought given strong housing loan growth. ^[28]

CBA’s own newsroom content reinforces this:

An “Is higher inflation here to stay?” insight from 18 November highlights persistent services inflation and a trimmed‑mean inflation path that only gradually returns to target, supporting the view that rates may stay high for longer. ^[29]
Another piece, “Is Australia about to crash through its economic ‘speed limit’?”, pegs potential growth at just 2.1% and points to capacity constraints, again suggesting limited scope for aggressive monetary easing without reigniting inflation. ^[30]

For a bank like CBA, that mix is tricky:

Higher‑for‑longer rates help margins in the short run but
Strained borrowers, regulatory pressure and competition can offset that benefit over time.

4.2 Housing and competition

A mid‑November Reuters story quoted CBA CEO Matt Comyn saying that demand for home loans is “too high” and contributing to rising property prices, even as regulators warn banks not to loosen lending standards to chase growth. ^[31]

At the same time, APRA has introduced debt‑to‑income caps on banks’ home‑loan books “to pre‑emptively counter a build‑up of risks”, a move ratings agency Fitch described as only marginally negative for banks in the near term, but clearly aimed at curbing aggressive growth. ^[32]

CBA’s August full‑year 2025 results underlined this tension:

Record A$10.25 billion cash profit, beating the prior year.
Strong growth in home and business lending.
Net interest margin up to 2.08% and a record A$4.85 in dividends per share. ^[33]

Yet the share price fell more than 5% on the day, dragging the ASX 200 lower, as investors fixated on overvaluation and the risk that lower rates and tougher competition would squeeze margins from here. ^[34]

Put simply: the numbers are still good, but the cycle is no longer getting easier, and CBA is priced as if it will continue to navigate that perfectly.

5. Strategic updates: AI, climate and long‑term positioning

While near‑term trading is dominated by valuations and macro, CBA did announce some strategic moves in the week leading up to 28–30 November:

On 26 November, the bank named Ranil Boteju (formerly Group Chief Data & Analytics Officer at Lloyds Banking Group) as its new Chief AI Officer, effective early 2026, with responsibility for advancing CBA’s artificial‑intelligence strategy across the group. ^[35]
On 27 November, a CBA “Momentum” conference session, summarised in “From net zero to AI: the new agenda for ASX chairs”, highlighted how boards are grappling with climate commitments and digital transformation, with CBA positioning itself as a leader on both fronts. ^[36]

These developments don’t move Monday’s open price by themselves, but they feed into the longer‑term bull case: CBA as a technology‑enabled, ESG‑aware franchise that can justify a premium multiple through superior execution.

The question, in the eyes of critics, is whether that premium is already more than reflected in today’s 29x earnings and sub‑3% trailing yield.

6. Key debates for investors before the 1 December open

6.1 The bull case in brief

Supporters of CBA shares typically point to:

Dominant market position in Australian retail and business banking, with strong brand and customer base. ^[37]
Resilient profitability through cycles, including record FY25 profit and historically high returns on equity. ^[38]
Consistent dividends, fully franked, with 10%+ dividend growth over the last three years on some measures. ^[39]
Investment in AI, data and technology, highlighted by the Chief AI Officer appointment. ^[40]
A still relatively low credit‑loss environment, with capital ratios above regulatory minima. ^[41]

From this angle, the recent pullback is seen as a typical de‑rating after a strong run, not the start of a structural decline.

6.2 The bear case in brief

Sceptics, including many brokers and value‑oriented managers, focus on:

Valuation risk: CBA trades at one of the highest P/E multiples of any major bank globally, even after falling 20% from its high. ^[42]
Limited upside on consensus numbers: average 12‑month targets (~A$121) and fair‑value estimates (~A$120) sit well below the current price; several analysts and at least one major broker (Morgans) see 30–40% downside. ^[43]
Cost and margin pressure: operating costs are rising faster than revenue in recent quarters, while competition in mortgages and deposits is intense, squeezing net interest margins. ^[44]
Regulatory and political risk: APRA’s new lending caps and public debate over bank fees and mortgage relief mean less room for aggressive pricing or cost‑cutting. ^[45]
Macro fragility: with Australia’s potential growth estimated at only 2.1% and inflation still elevated, the risk is that the economy slows without delivering the large rate cuts that would turbo‑charge loan demand. ^[46]

Put starkly, the bear view is that CBA is a wonderful bank on a not‑so‑wonderful price.

7. What to watch as ASX trading resumes on Monday

Ahead of the 1 December 2025 open, CBA investors and traders are likely to focus on:

Index and sector flows
- Will the “expensive bank sell‑off” highlighted by Reuters continue into December, or will bargain hunters step in after the worst November since 2014? ^[47]
- Do resources and smaller caps keep attracting capital at the expense of big banks, as WAM’s Matt Haupt expects? ^[48]
Rates expectations and economic data
- Any shift in market pricing for the RBA’s next moves, especially after strong local inflation data and CBA’s own more hawkish research calls. ^[49]
- Incoming data on housing, wages and employment that might change perceptions of credit quality and loan demand.
Newsflow on regulation and housing
- Further commentary from APRA or ratings agencies on debt‑to‑income caps and mortgage competition. ^[50]
Follow‑through from weekend commentary
- Retail and professional investors reacting to high‑profile pieces on blue‑chip repricing, bank valuations and CBA’s premium — especially from The Australian, Rask Media, Simply Wall St and Morgans. ^[51]

Final thoughts (and a quick disclaimer)

As of the close on 28 November 2025, Commonwealth Bank of Australia sits at a crossroads:

It remains a highly profitable, systemically important bank with strong dividends and a growing focus on AI and sustainability. ^[52]
But it is also one of the most expensive bank stocks in the world, and the events of late November show that markets are no longer willing to give that valuation a free pass when growth slows and costs creep higher. ^[53]

For investors heading into Monday’s open, the key question is not whether CBA is a good bank — that’s rarely disputed — but whether, at around A$152 a share, it still offers a good trade‑off between quality, growth and price in a world of sticky inflation, vigilant regulators and plenty of cheaper banks offshore.

Important: This article is for general information only. It summarises publicly available news, data and commentary as of 28–30 November 2025 and is not financial advice. It doesn’t take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider speaking to a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.