HOUSTON, Jan 31, 2026, 05:22 (CST) — Market closed.
- Chevron’s stock ended Friday up 3.3%, settling at $176.90.
- Chevron exceeded fourth-quarter profit forecasts and highlighted potential to increase Venezuela production, pending U.S. approval.
- Traders are eyeing Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting alongside Washington’s upcoming moves on Venezuela sanctions.
Chevron shares closed Friday up 3.3% at $176.90, boosted by a quarterly profit beat. Executives also faced tough questions on Venezuela, pushing the stock higher.
Oil also added some momentum. Brent finished 1.3% higher at $70.69 a barrel, while U.S. crude closed at $65.21. Traders were on edge over U.S.-Iran tensions.
U.S. markets are closed for the weekend, leaving crude policy front and center as investors prepare for Monday. OPEC+ plans to meet Sunday, with sources indicating the group will probably maintain its hold on increasing output in March.
Chevron reported adjusted Q4 earnings of $1.52 per share, topping the LSEG forecast of $1.45 but down from $2.06 a year ago. CEO Mike Wirth noted, “We have been a part of Venezuela’s past for more than a century,” as the company explores further opportunities there. Chevron estimates Venezuelan output at roughly 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) and said it could climb about 50% within 18 to 24 months if the U.S. grants more approvals. The firm also flagged a 185,000 to 225,000 boepd drop in production for Q1 due to maintenance and downtime but maintained a 7% to 10% production growth forecast for 2026, excluding asset sales. Reuters
Wirth said Chevron could handle an extra 100,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude at U.S. refineries, beyond the roughly 50,000 bpd currently processed at Pascagoula, Mississippi. He highlighted more heavy-crude capacity at El Segundo, California, but noted it hinges on how Venezuelan barrels compare to other options.
Exxon Mobil took a cautious stance on Venezuela. CEO Darren Woods highlighted technology that might cut costs for extracting the country’s heavy crude but, like Wirth, emphasized the need for firmer legal protections and political stability before making long-term commitments. Still, any easing in Venezuela’s troubles could relieve some pressure in Guyana, where both companies are partners.
Analysts approached the calls anticipating that dynamic. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors, suggested geopolitics and Venezuela might weigh heavier than the quarter’s headline figures. TD Cowen’s Jason Gabelman noted that better clarity on Venezuela could “create significant upside” for Chevron’s shares. Reuters
Chevron sweetened the deal for shareholders, with the board announcing a 4% hike in the quarterly dividend to $1.78 per share. The payout is set for March 10, to those holding shares by Feb. 17. The company also flagged $1.5 billion in structural cost cuts for 2025, part of a wider plan to trim expenses.
Wirth introduced another growth avenue on Friday, revealing Chevron’s talks with Iraq and Libya about producing fields and new exploration prospects. He emphasized, however, that the company demands competitive returns.
The Venezuela story is double-edged. Gains hinge on U.S. approvals and Caracas delivering steady fiscal policies, and the market won’t hesitate to sell off if politics or sanctions take a sudden turn. On top of that, the company faces an immediate snag: first-quarter production is expected to drop due to scheduled maintenance and bad weather.
The next major event is the OPEC+ decision coming Sunday, Feb. 1, which could jolt crude prices as markets open Monday. Chevron shareholders will also watch for new U.S. actions on Venezuela licensing, alongside the Feb. 17 record date for the boosted dividend.
