NEW YORK, January 7, 2026, 15:29 EST — Regular session
- Chevron down about 1% as investors weigh a possible role in a bid for Lukoil’s international assets
- Venezuela policy has turned into the main driver, with Washington saying it wants to control oil sales “indefinitely”
- Next big marker for CVX bulls and bears is the company’s January 30 earnings call
Chevron fell 0.9% to $155.17 in afternoon trade after Reuters reported private equity group Quantum Energy Partners is working on a bid that could involve the U.S. oil major for Lukoil’s international assets. A Chevron spokesperson said the company “continues to assess potential opportunities,” but declined to comment on commercial matters. 1
The Chevron stock price forecast is suddenly less about refinery margins and more about politics, with Washington moving to take a hand in Venezuelan crude sales. “We need to have that leverage and that control of those oil sales,” U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told a conference in Miami, adding the U.S. wants to control the revenue “indefinitely” as it pushes for change. 2
A deal announced on Tuesday calls for Venezuela to export up to $2 billion worth of crude to the United States, with flows currently controlled by Chevron under a U.S. authorization. Chevron has been exporting about 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day, or bpd, from Venezuela to the U.S., Reuters reported.
Chevron has kept operations moving even under a U.S. export blockade, calling about 20 employees back to Venezuela and resuming exports after a four-day pause, a source and shipping data showed. Output at its two biggest Venezuelan projects has been running about 240,000 bpd so far this month, near top capacity, the source said.
Crude prices have worked against the stock on Wednesday, with Brent down about 1.3% at $59.94 a barrel and U.S. WTI down 2% at $55.99, as traders digested the Venezuela deal and broader oversupply talk. “The volumes are quite small in a larger context,” SEB commodities analyst Ole Hvalbye said, while Morgan Stanley analysts put the potential surplus as high as 3 million bpd in the first half of 2026. 3
CVX has also shown how fast the trade can flip: U.S. oil shares rose on Monday on optimism about access to Venezuela’s vast reserves, then Chevron dropped 4.46% on Tuesday even as the Dow rose, according to MarketWatch data. The whipsaw has left traders wary of chasing headlines with size. 4
Away from Venezuela, Chevron’s portfolio still shifts in quieter ways. Shell said it signed a farm-in agreement — a buy-in to a license — to take a 35% interest in Angola’s Block 49 and 50 from Cabinda Gulf Oil, a Chevron unit; Chevron confirmed the deal and said it remains subject to regulatory approval.
Broker calls have split, and that’s where the “forecast” starts to show up in numbers. Freedom Capital Markets analyst Sergey Pigarev cut Chevron to “sell” with a $165 price target, calling the Venezuela-driven “euphoria” “unjustified and dangerous,” while Citi trimmed its target to $179 from $185 and kept a buy rating, citing higher upstream downtime. 5
But the bull case still comes with big “ifs”: output gains in Venezuela could take time and money, and policy can swing again. “It’s hard to imagine increases beyond 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day in the next year,” Goldman Sachs commodities co-head Daan Struyven said, and technicians note CVX is back near the $154 area — around its 100-day moving average — after breaking above it earlier this week. 6
The next clean catalyst is Chevron’s quarterly earnings call on January 30 at 11:00 a.m. EST, when investors will press management on upstream downtime, capital spending and whether Venezuela headlines are changing how the company thinks about risk and dealmaking. 7
