New York, March 4, 2026, 10:47 ET — Regular session
- Circle shares tack on more gains, stretching a three-day rally, with oil shocks now clouding the Fed’s rate-cut outlook.
- Circle had two insiders file SEC Rule 144 notices for planned share sales.
- Friday’s U.S. jobs numbers are up next, with traders eyeing those and the Fed’s March meeting as the next signal on rates.
Circle Internet Group Inc climbed 3.1% to $102.69 during Wednesday morning trading, after reaching as high as $106.30 earlier. More than 12 million shares changed hands.
The stock has followed changing expectations around U.S. interest rates, with energy prices moving higher and inflation back in the spotlight. According to CME FedWatch futures, the odds of a quarter-point rate cut in June have slipped to 30.7%, down sharply from 49.6% just last week. By December, markets are now factoring in about 42 basis points (0.42 percentage point) of cuts. Reuters
This is a key issue for Circle, whose revenue depends heavily on “reserve income”—the interest it collects from assets supporting USDC, its flagship stablecoin pegged to $1. The company reported a 72% jump in USDC’s circulation for the fourth quarter last week, which pushed reserve-related revenue up to $733 million. Reuters
Oil prices hovered just below recent highs, with traders eyeing the U.S.-Israeli tensions involving Iran and the resulting hit to regional supplies. Brent managed a 0.3% climb, hitting $81.67, while U.S. crude slipped 0.7% to $74.03 a barrel. “Market participants seem to expect a de-escalation,” noted UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Reuters
Circle shares kicked off their rally Monday and just kept climbing. On March 2, the stock surged 15.22%. The following day, it tacked on another 3.63%. Trading stayed heavy—volume cleared 30 million shares in both sessions, Investing.com figures show. Investing.com
Insiders are preparing to offload shares as well. Circle’s CFO, Jeremy Fox-Geen, submitted a Form 144 indicating he plans to sell 4,238 shares. Fellow executive Hossein Razzaghi put in his own notice for up to 43,119 shares, according to SEC disclosures. A Form 144 signals that an affiliate intends to sell restricted or control stock, though it doesn’t confirm a sale has happened. SEC
Mizuho’s Dan Dolev bumped up his price target on the stock to $100 from $90 on Tuesday but stuck with a Neutral rating, GuruFocus reported. GuruFocus
Crypto-adjacent stocks climbed as well. Coinbase surged 14.1%, while Robinhood picked up 8.3% in early action.
Still, there’s a flip side here. Should oil prices retreat and wagers on rate cuts rebound, Circle’s reserve earnings could vanish in a hurry. And stablecoins remain on regulators’ radar. The ECB flagged the risk again this week, warning in a paper that stablecoin growth might drain bank deposits and undermine monetary policy. Reuters
Coming Friday, traders are bracing for the U.S. February jobs report, followed by the Fed’s policy meeting set for March 17-18. Those two dates are circled on market calendars as benchmarks for the next shift in short-term yields. Bureau of Labor Statistics
