NEW YORK, March 5, 2026, 11:49 EST
- Circle shares moved higher late in the morning, with oil’s rally feeding new inflation concerns.
- Mizuho bumped its price target on Circle up to $100 but stuck with a neutral rating.
- Circle’s interest earnings from USDC reserves are back in focus for investors.
Shares of Circle Internet Group Inc pushed higher Thursday, up roughly 1.9% to $107.23 by late morning. The move stretched a rally that’s mirrored oil’s recent jump and renewed attention on interest rates. During the session, the stock swung from $103.61 to $110.10.
Oil surged, climbing over 3% to $84.38 a barrel by 10:55 a.m. EST, as supply and shipping snarls from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran rippled through the Middle East and fanned inflation worries, according to Reuters.
It’s crucial for Circle, whose main revenue streams are linked to USDC, the stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar and underpinned by assets similar to cash. Goldman Sachs estimates that if oil prices briefly spike to $100 per barrel, global growth could take a 0.4 percentage point hit, while headline inflation rises—a tricky scenario for central banks debating rate cuts.
This week, Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev bumped his price target on Circle to $100 from $90, sticking with a neutral call, according to Barron’s. Dolev pointed to climbing oil prices as a risk for inflation and potential rate cuts: “Rising oil prices could drive up inflation, lowering the odds of rate cuts.” Not everyone’s convinced, though. Scott Helfstein, who leads investment strategy at Global X, pushed back: “The impact of higher oil prices on inflation or Fed policy is probably overdone.” Barron’s
Circle, operating out of One World Trade Center in New York, handles USDC and EURC issuance while also providing stablecoin and blockchain infrastructure for developers and institutions. Reuters lists its range as including stablecoins, developer services, integration tools, and tokenized funds.
Circle isn’t alone in feeling the impact of changing rates. Other reserve-backed stablecoin issuers, like bigger competitor Tether and newcomers including PayPal’s PYUSD, also depend—sometimes heavily—on returns from cash holdings and short-term government securities. Investor sentiment? That shifts along with crypto trading volumes.
Circle’s latest quarterly revenue came in ahead of forecasts last week, with gains tied to increased USDC circulation and stronger reserve earnings. CEO Jeremy Allaire, speaking to Reuters, said more rate cuts would be “welcome”—even though elevated rates are currently boosting revenue. “High rates… really slow down the velocity of money in the economy,” he said. Reuters
Fuel costs aren’t waiting around. On Wednesday, U.S. retail diesel topped $4 a gallon. Patrick De Haan at GasBuddy thinks drivers could see $4.25 to $4.45 “in the days ahead,” a jump that highlights how fast an oil rally can spark inflation jitters. Reuters
The setup’s a double-edged sword. Should oil prices drop or the conflict de-escalate, traders might pivot right back to expecting rate cuts—pinching the interest Circle collects on reserves, even if that stirs up more general activity and token use. Regulatory scrutiny around stablecoins is still intense, too; stricter rules or a fiercer competitive landscape could gradually eat into margins.
Circle showed up again among the most active crypto-related stocks in U.S. trading, landing on Nasdaq’s premarket volume leaderboard Thursday.
