As U.S. markets get ready to reopen on Monday, November 17, 2025, Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) is heading into the week with serious momentum.
The stock closed Friday, November 14 at $78.00, its highest closing level in decades and right below its recent intraday high of $79.50. Data providers show this as Cisco’s top closing price on record, and market commentary notes it’s trading near levels last seen during the dot‑com era. MacroTrends
Year‑to‑date, Cisco has delivered roughly 30–35% total return, significantly ahead of the broader market, as investors pile into the company’s AI‑driven networking story. Total Real Returns
Below is what traders and long‑term investors should have on their radar before the opening bell on November 17.
Key things to know about Cisco stock before Monday’s open
- Stock price: Closed Friday at $78.00, near its 52‑week intraday high of $79.50 and at its highest closing level since the early 2000s. Yahoo Finance
- Fresh earnings beat: Fiscal Q1 2026 revenue and earnings both topped expectations, with revenue up 8% year over year to $14.9 billion and non‑GAAP EPS at $1.00. Cisco Newsroom
- Raised guidance: Cisco increased its full‑year fiscal 2026 outlook, now guiding to $60.2–$61.0 billion in revenue and $4.08–$4.14 in non‑GAAP EPS, up from prior ranges. Reuters
- AI is the main growth engine: The company booked $1.3 billion in AI infrastructure orders in Q1 and expects $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue in FY 2026, after surpassing $2 billion in AI orders during FY 2025. Q4 Capital
- Splunk integration adds software & security heft: Cisco is layering the $28 billion Splunk acquisition on top of its traditional networking business, boosting observability and security revenue. Investopedia
- Dividend and valuation: The stock yields about 2.1% on an annual dividend of $1.64 per share, while trading near 30x trailing earnings and around 19x forward earnings—well above its historical averages. Yahoo Finance
- Security vulnerabilities are in focus: U.S. cyber authorities are still warning about actively exploited zero‑day flaws in certain Cisco firewall products, keeping operational and reputational risk on the radar. Tenable®
- Analysts skew bullish but cautious on valuation: Consensus is a “Buy” with an average 12‑month price target in the low‑ to mid‑$80s, while several prominent firms have recently raised targets to as high as $90–$100. GuruFocus
1. Where Cisco stock stands heading into November 17
Cisco’s breakout has accelerated over the past week:
- Friday’s close: $78.00
- 52‑week high (intraday): $79.50, only about 2% above Friday’s close Yahoo Finance
- One‑year total return: mid‑30% range, with YTD returns over 30% on most measures, outpacing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Total Real Returns
Market data and commentary note that Cisco is trading at or near its highest levels since March 2000, reflecting how strongly investors have embraced its AI‑driven networking narrative. Morningstar
With the stock sitting at record or near‑record levels ahead of Monday’s session, profit‑taking, momentum flows, and any new headlines could make early trading more volatile than usual.
2. Earnings recap: Q1 FY26 beat and raised outlook
On November 12, 2025, Cisco reported results for the first quarter of its 2026 fiscal year (period ended October 25, 2025): Cisco Newsroom
- Revenue: $14.9 billion, up 8% year over year and above analyst expectations. The Wall Street Journal
- GAAP net income: $2.9 billion, or $0.72 per share. Cisco Newsroom
- Non‑GAAP net income: $4.0 billion, or $1.00 per share, roughly 10% higher than a year ago and ahead of the roughly $0.98 consensus. Yahoo Finance
- Product revenue: Up about 10%, driven primarily by networking and AI infrastructure. The Wall Street Journal
- Total product orders: Up 13% year over year, with growth across all regions—Americas, EMEA, and APJC. The Motley Fool
Crucially, Cisco didn’t just beat—it raised its full‑year fiscal 2026 guidance:
- FY26 revenue: Now $60.2–$61.0 billion (previously $59–$60 billion). Reuters
- FY26 non‑GAAP EPS: Now $4.08–$4.14, vs. prior guidance of $4.00–$4.06. Reuters
For Q2 FY26, management guided to: The Wall Street Journal
- Revenue of $15.0–$15.2 billion
- Non‑GAAP EPS of $1.01–$1.03
The beat‑and‑raise combination triggered a sharp move higher in the stock: shares jumped roughly 6–7% in the immediate aftermath of the release and are now up around 25–35% for 2025, depending on the data source. Total Real Returns
3. AI infrastructure is driving Cisco’s growth story
If you’re trying to understand why CSCO is near a 25‑year high, the answer is simple: AI infrastructure orders.
Across recent quarters, Cisco has:
- Surpassed $2 billion in AI‑related infrastructure orders during fiscal 2025, beating its own earlier $1 billion target ahead of schedule. Investopedia
- Reported $1.3 billion in AI infrastructure orders in Q1 FY26 alone, mostly from hyperscale cloud providers building out AI‑centric data centers. Investors.com
- Told investors it expects around $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue in fiscal 2026 and more than $4 billion in AI orders, pointing to a multiyear runway. Reuters
CEO Chuck Robbins has repeatedly described AI as a “massive opportunity,” positioning Cisco as a key supplier of the high‑speed Ethernet, routing, optics, and switching gear required to connect AI accelerators and build modern data centers. Investopedia
Cisco also introduced a new AI platform, “Cisco Unified Edge,” aimed at running AI workloads closer to where data is created—in places like retail stores, manufacturing plants, and healthcare facilities—opening an additional front beyond hyperscale cloud data centers. Reuters
Heading into Monday’s session, AI remains the core narrative that traders will be leaning on: any new commentary around orders from big names like Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, or Meta could sway the stock. Reuters
4. Splunk integration is reshaping Cisco’s software and security mix
Beyond routers and switches, Cisco is quietly becoming a much more software‑heavy business, thanks in part to its acquisition of Splunk, completed on March 18, 2024, in a deal valued at roughly $28 billion. Splunk
Splunk brings powerful security analytics and observability capabilities that Cisco can bundle with its networking, security, and data platforms. In more recent quarters:
- Cisco has highlighted that product orders growth remains strong even when excluding Splunk, suggesting the combined business is driving broad‑based demand rather than merely masking weakness. Q4 Capital
- Channel commentary suggests Splunk has meaningfully boosted security revenue, helping Cisco compete more directly with standalone security and logging vendors. Channel Futures
For investors, that matters because software and subscriptions generally carry higher margins and more recurring revenue, which can support higher valuation multiples. How smoothly Cisco executes the Splunk integration—and how well it cross‑sells AI‑driven observability and security tools—will remain an important theme into 2026.
5. Dividend, buybacks, and valuation: Cisco isn’t “cheap” anymore
Cisco remains a favorite for income‑oriented tech investors, but it’s no longer trading at a bargain:
- Dividend: Cisco pays a quarterly dividend of $0.41 per share, or $1.64 annually, implying a yield of about 2.1% at recent prices. GuruFocus
- Dividend track record: The company has raised its dividend modestly over time, with roughly 2–3% annual growth in recent years and a payout ratio in the low‑60% range. Digrin
- Buybacks: Cisco has been an aggressive repurchaser of its own shares, including a $15 billion buyback increase announced earlier in 2025, boosting total shareholder yield (dividends plus buybacks) into the 3–4% range. Investopedia
On valuation:
- Trailing P/E: Around 30x based on Friday’s close and trailing 12‑month earnings. FinanceCharts
- Forward P/E: Roughly 18–19x based on analyst forecasts for the coming year. GuruFocus
That’s well above Cisco’s long‑term averages, and higher than many traditional “value tech” names, though still below fast‑growing AI pure‑plays. FinanceCharts
In short, investors are now paying a premium multiple for Cisco’s AI‑enhanced growth prospects and improved earnings visibility. Any sign that AI orders or enterprise demand are slowing could therefore have an outsized impact on the share price.
6. Security vulnerabilities are a key risk to watch
Ironically, for a company that sells security products, Cisco is currently under scrutiny for its own vulnerabilities.
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has issued repeated warnings about two serious zero‑day vulnerabilities—CVE‑2025‑20333 and CVE‑2025‑20362—affecting Cisco Secure Firewall ASA and FTD software. These flaws have been actively exploited in targeted attacks, including campaigns against government networks. Zscaler
Key points:
- The vulnerabilities can enable remote code execution or unauthorized access on unpatched devices. Arctic Wolf
- CISA ordered federal agencies to patch affected systems rapidly, but tens of thousands of vulnerable devices were still visible online in recent scans. TechRadar
- Cisco has released patches and multiple security advisories, warning of continued attacks against unpatched systems. Cisco
While such incidents are not uncommon in the networking and security industry, they can create headline risk, generate incremental support costs, and raise questions about product quality. Traders on Monday may watch for any fresh security‑related news or customer commentary that could influence sentiment.
7. What Wall Street is saying about CSCO now
Analysts have become more constructive on Cisco following the Q1 FY26 report, but there is notable debate about valuation.
Recent moves include:
- UBS upgraded Cisco to “Buy” on November 3, citing a multiyear AI‑driven growth cycle and later raised its price target to $90 after the earnings beat. Cbonds
- Bank of America lifted its target to $85–$95, highlighting strong AI networking trends and the Splunk integration. Investors
- Other firms, including KeyCorp and Melius Research, have issued overweight or buy ratings with targets ranging up to $100. MarketBeat
- On the cautious side, HSBC and Evercore ISI have expressed concerns about valuation and the need for clearer AI revenue disclosure, assigning Hold/Neutral ratings and lower targets around the high‑$60s. Yahoo Finance
Across coverage, data aggregators show:
- A “Buy” or “Moderate Buy” consensus rating.
- An average 12‑month target in roughly the $83–$85 range—modest upside versus Friday’s close. StockAnalysis
In other words, Wall Street generally likes Cisco’s AI‑driven growth story, but many analysts think a lot of that optimism is already reflected in today’s price.
8. What to watch at the open on November 17, 2025
Here are the key things to monitor when trading starts on Monday:
- Follow‑through after the breakout
- Will momentum buyers continue to push CSCO to new highs above $79.50, or will profit‑taking dominate after a big post‑earnings run? Yahoo Finance
- Newsflow on AI orders or hyperscaler capex
- Any fresh commentary from major cloud providers—or from Cisco itself via events, interviews, or new deal announcements—could move expectations for 2026 AI revenue. Investing.com
- Security and vulnerability headlines
- Watch for follow‑ups from CISA, Cisco, or third‑party security researchers on the firewall vulnerabilities. New exploits or breaches could weigh on the stock, while signs of widespread patching might ease concerns. Rapid7
- Rotation within the networking and security group
- Peers like Arista Networks, Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, and others often move together with Cisco on macro or sector news. Relative strength or weakness could hint at whether CSCO’s move is company‑specific or part of a broader trade. MarketWatch
- Macro backdrop and index performance
- Cisco is a large component of major indices. Broader moves in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—particularly anything tied to interest rates or tech sentiment—can amplify or dampen stock‑specific drivers. Investopedia
Bottom line
Heading into the November 17, 2025 open, Cisco stock is:
- Technically strong, sitting near multi‑decade highs.
- Fundamentally supported by an earnings beat, raised guidance, and surging AI infrastructure demand.
- Strategically evolving through its Splunk‑powered push into software, observability, and security.
- Valuation‑sensitive, with the stock no longer priced as a deep‑value name but rather as a maturing AI infrastructure winner.
- Not without risk, particularly around cybersecurity vulnerabilities and the possibility that AI orders decelerate from today’s exceptionally strong levels.
As always, this overview is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Anyone considering trading or investing in CSCO should evaluate their own risk tolerance and perform additional research.
