HOUSTON, April 9, 2026, 14:59 CDT
Oil prices bounced Thursday, recouping some ground after the previous day’s dramatic slide, as traders zeroed in on persistent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz—even with a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran in place. Brent crude climbed 90 cents, or 1%, trading at $95.65 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate surged $3, or 3.2%, to $97.39 by 12:58 p.m. ET. Both benchmarks had earlier spiked past $99 and $102.
This is important right now because the market isn’t just reacting to the ceasefire headline anymore. Futures slid on the truce news, yet actual cargo supply remains scarce; North Sea Forties crude jumped to a record $146.43 a barrel. Neil Crosby, analyst at Sparta Commodities, flagged that it could be “months before a return to the full supply chain.” Reuters
On Thursday, fewer than 10% of the usual number of tankers and cargo vessels navigated the Strait of Hormuz, a route that typically handles roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas trade. Ship-tracking data, referenced by Reuters, showed just seven ships made the passage over 24 hours—far short of the normal daily count of about 140. Hundreds of ships remain backed up, and replacement barrels are in short supply.
Big shipping lines aren’t ready to say the crisis is over just yet. Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen told customers it will be “at least six to eight weeks” before cargo flows are back to normal. Frontline’s Lars Barstad, for his part, said he’s waiting to read “the fine print” before making any calls on the ceasefire. Reuters
Banks are working to make sense of the divide. Following the truce, Goldman Sachs lowered its second-quarter outlook to $90 a barrel for Brent and $87 for WTI, yet left forecasts for later quarters untouched. The firm added that if Middle East production losses drag on, Brent might end up averaging as much as $115.
Barclays struck a more decisive tone. The bank noted that traffic through Hormuz stayed limited, pegged current supply disruptions between 13 million and 14 million barrels a day, and stuck to its $85 Brent call for 2026—though it warned there’s still room for prices to move higher unless there’s a much deeper drop in demand.
Traders sifted through U.S. inventory numbers that sent conflicting signals. Commercial crude stocks climbed by 3.1 million barrels last week, reaching 464.7 million—the highest level in almost three years. Yet gasoline and distillate supplies dropped, reflecting steady export demand. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo described the outcome as “overall a neutral report.” Reuters
The U.S. Energy Information Administration isn’t expecting a swift turnaround. In its latest forecast, the agency projects Brent averaging $96 in 2026, with prices topping out around $115 in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the outlook for global oil demand growth has been cut to 600,000 barrels per day this year—half the 1.2 million bpd they called for just a month ago. Asia’s heavier exposure to Middle East supply disruptions is driving much of that revision.
Asia’s feeling the pinch. Imports of seaborne crude oil in April fell to 19.22 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters—down sharply from the first-quarter average of 25 million. Refined fuel markets haven’t loosened up either. Even with jet fuel, gasoil and gasoline dropping hard from their recent highs, supply remains tight.
Several firms are cashing in on the crunch. Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and PBF Energy have seen a boost from wider export margins along the U.S. Gulf Coast, with refinery utilization topping 95%. Consultant Jeff Krimmel points out that U.S. refiners are tapping into markets “facing scarcity.” Reuters
Still, oil’s got room to fall if the ceasefire sticks and countries keep drawing from reserves. Japan’s mulling another release, roughly 20 days’ worth of demand. Brent slid 13.3% on Wednesday, WTI tumbled 16.4%—a sharp reversal, with traders quick to price out the war premium as bets rise on Hormuz possibly reopening.
Supply worries continue to take center stage. Saudi Arabia reported its oil output capacity is down by around 600,000 bpd, with the East-West pipeline moving about 700,000 bpd less. ADNOC chief Sultan Al Jaber described the strait as “restricted, conditioned and controlled.” Reuters
