SAN JOSE / NEW YORK — Updated Friday, Dec. 12, 2025: Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) capped a headline-making week with a sharp pullback after finally clearing a milestone investors have watched for a quarter century: a new record above its dot-com era peak. Cisco shares closed at $77.80 on Dec. 12 after trading between $79.56 and $77.72 during the session. [1]
The week’s story, in two acts: a breakout to $80.25 at Wednesday’s close (with an intraday high of $80.82)—then a fast reset as AI-linked tech stocks sold off into Friday. [2]
Below is a detailed, news-driven recap of what moved Cisco stock this week, what Wall Street is forecasting next, and a practical “week ahead” checklist for CSCO watchers.
Cisco stock this week: from record close to risk-off reversal
Cisco’s price action was unusually “eventful” for a mega-cap networking name that typically trades more like a steady dividend compounder than an AI momentum proxy.
The week in short (Dec. 8–12)
- Mon., Dec. 8: CSCO closed at $78.86, continuing a multi-day advance. [3]
- Wed., Dec. 10: Cisco hit an intraday high of $80.82 and closed at $80.25, marking a fresh record close and clearing the long-standing dot-com era peak. [4]
- Thu., Dec. 11: Shares slipped 1.22% to $79.27, snapping a seven-day winning streak. [5]
- Fri., Dec. 12: The slide accelerated, with CSCO finishing at $77.80. [6]
From Monday’s close to Friday’s close, the stock finished down about 1.3% for the week—despite briefly trading at levels not seen since the early 2000s. [7]
Why Cisco’s record matters: 25 years after the dot-com peak
Multiple outlets focused on the psychological significance of Cisco reclaiming and surpassing its dot-com high.
- Cisco closed at $80.25, topping the $80.06 record set in March 2000. [8]
- Commentary also emphasized that today’s Cisco is being re-rated amid AI infrastructure enthusiasm—while valuations remain far below the extremes of the late 1990s/2000 peak. [9]
Barron’s highlighted the contrast in valuation context: Cisco’s forward earnings multiple was far higher in the dot-com era than it is today, even after this year’s run-up. [10]
Why the stock fell Friday: AI trade jitters hit tech broadly
Friday’s move wasn’t just a Cisco story—it was a market story.
The broader U.S. market pulled back from recent highs, led by declines in large technology shares tied to AI optimism. The S&P 500 fell about 1.1% and the Nasdaq dropped about 1.7% on Dec. 12, according to AP’s market recap. [11]
At the same time, Reuters reported renewed turbulence in the AI trade after disappointing updates from other major tech names, reviving overvaluation/bubble debates even as many investors remain constructive on longer-term AI fundamentals. [12]
Cisco—now increasingly treated as part of the “AI infrastructure” basket—was pulled into that risk-off downdraft.
The fundamental driver: Cisco’s AI-networking demand and FY2026 outlook
Cisco’s “why now” moment has been building since its most recent earnings cycle.
Q1 FY2026 results and guidance set the tone
Cisco’s Q1 FY2026 earnings materials describe a strong start to the fiscal year, including:
- Q1 revenue of $14.9B, up 8% year-over-year [13]
- Non-GAAP EPS of $1.00 (also up year-over-year) [14]
- FY2026 guidance: revenue $60.2B–$61.0B, non-GAAP EPS $4.08–$4.14 [15]
- Q2 FY2026 guidance: revenue $15.0B–$15.2B, non-GAAP EPS $1.01–$1.03 [16]
In other words: Cisco didn’t just beat; it also provided a forward framework that supports the “AI networking + enterprise refresh” narrative investors are buying into.
The AI order numbers investors keep quoting
Cisco’s prepared remarks put hard figures behind the AI story:
- AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers totaled $1.3B in Q1, balanced between Silicon One systems and optics. [17]
- Cisco said it expects to recognize roughly $3B in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY2026. [18]
- Leadership also referenced a pipeline in excess of $2B for high-performance networking products across sovereign, neocloud, and enterprise customers. [19]
For many investors, those figures help justify why a “mature” networking company is suddenly trading like a growth infrastructure name again.
Cisco’s business mix: recurring revenue, Splunk, and the security wrinkle
A key part of the bull case is that Cisco isn’t only selling boxes—it’s increasingly selling subscriptions and software-like services.
From Cisco’s earnings prepared remarks:
- Total ARR ended the quarter at $31.4B (up 5%) [20]
- Total subscription revenue was $8.0B, representing 54% of total revenue [21]
But the report also shows where execution risk lives. Cisco noted that security was down 2%, reflecting declines in prior-generation platforms and a shift toward cloud subscriptions in the Splunk business (partially offset by growth in areas like Secure Firewall, Duo, and SASE). [22]
That matters because the post-Splunk Cisco thesis depends on successful cross-selling and platform integration—especially in security, where competition is intense.
Shareholder returns: dividend clarity and buyback capacity
Cisco continues to position itself as a shareholder-return story alongside the AI growth narrative.
In its Q1 FY2026 press release, Cisco said it:
- Declared a quarterly dividend of $0.41 per share, payable Jan. 21, 2026, to stockholders of record as of Jan. 2, 2026 [23]
- Returned $3.6B to shareholders in Q1 through dividends and buybacks, and reported $12.2B remaining under its repurchase authorization [24]
For income-focused investors, the dividend timetable is a near-term anchor even if the stock is volatile around AI sentiment.
Analyst forecasts: where Wall Street sees CSCO over the next 12 months
While there’s plenty of debate about “AI bubble” risk across tech, Cisco’s analyst sentiment currently reads more constructive than cautious.
- MarketWatch’s analyst snapshot shows an average target price around $86.28 with an average recommendation of “Overweight” (25 ratings). [25]
- Separate reporting on analyst activity notes UBS raising its Cisco price target to $90 (from $88) while maintaining a Buy stance. [26]
Taken together, published targets tend to cluster in the mid-$80s (with higher “blue-sky” targets in some cases), implying analysts generally expect upside from Friday’s close—while acknowledging the stock just printed a major technical milestone and may need digestion time.
Company events and catalysts: what matters for Cisco stock next week
Cisco’s own investor communications flagged several financial-community appearances in December—while explicitly stating no new financial information would be discussed. [27]
The most concrete calendar item coming up
- Cisco’s 2025 Virtual Annual Meeting of Stockholders:Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025, 8:00 a.m. PT (webcast format). [28]
Annual meetings are not usually price-moving by themselves, but they can become catalysts if management commentary shifts tone on AI demand, margins, capital allocation, or integration priorities.
Week-ahead outlook for CSCO: scenarios, levels, and what to monitor
With CSCO ending the week at $77.80, next week’s setup is largely about whether the stock can stabilize after failing to hold the breakout above $80. [29]
1) The “consolidation” base case
After a 25-year milestone and quick pullback, it’s common to see:
- sideways trade as early buyers lock in gains,
- dips being bought near prior support levels (often around round numbers),
- a market-wide tone (risk-on vs. risk-off) dominating single-stock moves.
Watch zone: the high-$70s area where Cisco traded most of this week, especially Friday’s intraday low near $77.72. [30]
2) The “breakout reclaim” bull case
A renewed push toward:
- $79–$80 as a first test,
- then the $80.25 record close / $80.82 intraday high as the key “overhead supply” level. [31]
To get there, Cisco likely needs the broader AI/tech tape to calm down—especially after Friday’s AI-linked selloff.
3) The “risk-off continuation” bear case
If markets continue rotating away from AI exposure (or yields rise sharply), Cisco could be dragged lower with the group—even if fundamentals haven’t changed week-to-week.
In that scenario, the next debate becomes: is this simply profit-taking after a historic run, or the start of a deeper de-rating?
The big picture: Cisco is being priced as “AI infrastructure” again—by fundamentals and narrative
Cisco’s late-2025 rally is not purely hype. The company has published tangible AI infrastructure order figures, reiterated an FY2026 revenue/EPS framework, and continues returning capital through dividends and buybacks. [32]
At the same time, the market is clearly sensitive to the “AI trade” mood swings, and media analysis has explicitly drawn parallels between today’s AI exuberance and the dot-com era—even while noting valuations are not the same. [33]
For CSCO investors, next week is less about another breakout headline—and more about whether the stock can hold its post-record gains while the broader AI narrative cools and resets.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. finance.yahoo.com, 7. finance.yahoo.com, 8. www.wsj.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. apnews.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. s2.q4cdn.com, 14. s2.q4cdn.com, 15. s2.q4cdn.com, 16. s2.q4cdn.com, 17. s2.q4cdn.com, 18. s2.q4cdn.com, 19. s2.q4cdn.com, 20. s2.q4cdn.com, 21. s2.q4cdn.com, 22. s2.q4cdn.com, 23. s2.q4cdn.com, 24. s2.q4cdn.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. finance.yahoo.com, 27. newsroom.cisco.com, 28. www.prnewswire.com, 29. finance.yahoo.com, 30. finance.yahoo.com, 31. finance.yahoo.com, 32. s2.q4cdn.com, 33. www.ft.com
