As U.S. markets reopen on Monday, Dec. 15, 2025, Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) heads into the week with a rare combination of catalysts: a recently refreshed AI networking narrative, a raised fiscal-year outlook, and a calendar that includes investor events and Cisco’s annual shareholder meeting.
Cisco’s shares also have something else going for them—momentum. The stock recently pushed above its dot-com-era peak for the first time in 25 years, a milestone that has sparked fresh debate about whether the current AI cycle is creating echoes of 2000, or simply lifting the companies that supply the infrastructure behind it. [1]
Below is what to watch before Monday’s opening bell, including the latest company guidance, key dates, Wall Street expectations, and the risks that could move CSCO next.
Cisco stock price check: where CSCO stands heading into Monday
Cisco ended last week below the recent highs after a sharp run-up earlier in December.
- Last close: Cisco closed at $77.80 (Friday, Dec. 12, 2025). [2]
- Recent milestone: The stock posted a $80.25 close on Dec. 10, its highest close since March 2000 and just above its dot-com peak. [3]
- Recent intraday high: Cisco touched about $80.82 intraday on Dec. 10, underscoring how close the stock is trading to a psychologically important “80-handle.” [4]
That pullback matters for Monday because it can amplify sensitivity to headlines—especially any new commentary about AI demand, enterprise spending, or Cisco’s security strategy.
The core bullish driver: AI networking demand and Cisco’s raised FY2026 outlook
The biggest fundamental support for Cisco stock right now is that the company is no longer being valued only as a mature networking incumbent—it’s being priced more like an AI infrastructure enabler.
In its fiscal Q1 2026 results (period ended Oct. 25, 2025), Cisco reported:
- Revenue: $14.9 billion, up 8% year over year
- Non-GAAP EPS: $1.00, up 10% year over year
- Product orders: up 13% year over year
- AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers: $1.3 billion in the quarter [5]
Just as important for investors: Cisco’s forward guidance helped reset expectations for the year ahead.
Cisco’s guidance (company-issued)
From that same earnings release, Cisco guided:
- Q2 FY2026 guidance: Revenue $15.0–$15.2B; non-GAAP EPS $1.01–$1.03 [6]
- FY2026 guidance: Revenue $60.2–$61.0B; non-GAAP EPS $4.08–$4.14 [7]
Cisco also noted that margin and EPS guidance include the estimated impact of tariffs based on current trade policy, a reminder that macro policy shifts can flow through to hardware-heavy businesses. [8]
The “AI orders → AI revenue” bridge investors are watching
The company’s AI narrative has become more quantifiable. Reuters highlighted Cisco’s expectation of $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY2026, alongside commentary about a pipeline for high-performance networking products that exceeds $2 billion. [9]
Why that matters for Monday: if markets rotate back toward AI infrastructure winners—or if investors want “AI exposure” without mega-cap semiconductor valuations—Cisco is increasingly landing on the shortlist.
Beyond AI data centers: the campus networking refresh cycle
Cisco is also leaning on a more traditional, but potentially large, catalyst: enterprise upgrades.
Management described a “major multi-year, multi-billion-dollar campus networking refresh cycle” underway, noting that switching, routing, wireless, and IoT all saw accelerated order growth in Q1, and that WiFi 7 and other next-gen offerings are ramping faster than prior launches. [10]
For the stock, this matters because it suggests Cisco isn’t relying solely on hyperscaler AI spending. A broader enterprise refresh cycle can support more stable demand and help reduce “single-theme” risk.
Splunk is still central: security and observability as a second leg of the thesis
Cisco’s 2025 story isn’t only “more routers and switches.” It’s also a push to make security and data visibility more integrated—and more AI-native—especially after its Splunk deal.
Two Cisco releases investors continue to cite when discussing the Splunk strategy:
- Cisco introduced new Splunk Enterprise Security editions positioned around agentic AI to streamline threat detection, investigation, and response workflows inside the SOC. [11]
- Cisco also announced Splunk Federated Search for Snowflake, aimed at unifying operational and business data across Splunk and Snowflake environments—an attempt to reduce data silos and improve analytics and visibility. [12]
The near-term question is execution: can Cisco translate product announcements into sustained ARR growth and durable margin expansion? That’s a key debate that can influence how “software-like” investors are willing to value CSCO.
A fresh AI software move: Cisco completed the NeuralFabric acquisition
A notable corporate development that investors may still be digesting: Cisco says it completed the acquisition of NeuralFabric Corp. on Nov. 21, 2025, describing it as an enterprise AI platform for building and managing domain-specific Small Language Models (SLMs) using proprietary data, deployable across SaaS and on-premise environments. [13]
Cisco has framed NeuralFabric as a way to strengthen its enterprise AI platform direction—particularly where customers care about data sovereignty, compliance, and tailored models rather than one-size-fits-all LLMs. [14]
For Monday, this isn’t likely to be a trading catalyst by itself—but it’s part of the bigger repositioning that’s helped Cisco reclaim a “growth narrative” in the AI era.
December catalysts: investor conferences and Cisco’s annual meeting
Investor events (December calendar)
Cisco disclosed several December-facing events with the financial community, including:
- UBS Global Technology and AI Conference (Dec. 2)
- Nasdaq London Investor Conference (Dec. 10)
- Barclays TMT Conference (Dec. 10) with CFO Mark Patterson in a fireside chat
- Melius Research Conference (Dec. 11) [15]
Cisco also stated “No new financial information will be discussed” at these events. [16]
Even so, investors often trade on tone. Commentary about AI order cadence, optics demand, security momentum, or campus refresh timing can move the stock—especially when shares are near multi-decade highs.
Annual meeting (Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025)
Cisco’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders is scheduled for Dec. 16, 2025 at 8:00 a.m. Pacific Time. [17]
Items up for vote (as outlined in Cisco’s proxy materials) include:
- Election of directors (nine nominees) [18]
- Approval of an amendment and restatement of the 2005 Stock Incentive Plan [19]
- Advisory vote on executive compensation (say-on-pay) [20]
- Ratification of PwC as independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2026 [21]
- A shareholder proposal requesting a report assessing how Cisco’s inclusion programs provide positive financial value and accounting for litigation risk, with Cisco’s board recommending a vote against it [22]
Why it matters: annual meetings can generate short-term headlines, especially when shareholder proposals touch politically charged or litigation-adjacent issues. Most annual meetings don’t materially change fundamentals—but they can influence narrative and sentiment.
Wall Street forecasts: what analysts are expecting for CSCO
There’s no single “official” consensus dataset, but several widely-followed market summaries point to a generally constructive Street stance.
- MarketBeat’s consensus snapshot describes Cisco as a “Moderate Buy” with an average price target around $84.14(based on its tracked analyst set). [23]
- Using Friday’s $77.80 close, that implies roughly 8% upside to that average target (price targets are not guarantees and can change quickly). [24]
- UBS has been among the more bullish voices tied to the AI thesis, upgrading Cisco to Buy earlier in the fiscal year narrative and pointing to the potential for Cisco to beat revenue guidance as AI orders scale. [25]
- Reuters also pointed to valuation context that some investors find attractive versus higher-multiple AI infrastructure peers (Cisco at a materially lower forward earnings multiple than some networking comparables cited in that report). [26]
The key for Monday isn’t whether the Street is bullish or bearish in the abstract—it’s whether new information changes expectations for (1) AI order conversion into revenue and (2) the durability of enterprise networking refresh demand.
Dividend and buybacks: Cisco’s “shareholder yield” remains part of the pitch
Cisco continues to pair its AI narrative with substantial capital returns:
- Cisco declared a $0.41 quarterly dividend payable Jan. 21, 2026 to shareholders of record as of Jan. 2, 2026. [27]
- In Q1 FY2026, Cisco returned $3.6B to shareholders via buybacks and dividends, including about $2.0B of repurchases (29M shares at an average price of $68.28), and reported $12.2B remaining authorized for repurchases. [28]
At the current run-rate dividend ($1.64 annualized) and the $77.80 share price, Cisco’s indicated dividend yield is about 2.1%—though yield fluctuates with price, and future dividends remain subject to board approval. [29]
Macro backdrop: why rates and liquidity can matter for CSCO on Monday
Even for a single-stock story, the macro tape can drive the open—especially for mega-cap and “AI-adjacent” tech.
The Federal Reserve’s Dec. 10, 2025 statement said it lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.50%–3.75%, and also noted plans to initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample level of reserves. [30]
If Monday’s premarket sees yields move sharply (or if markets reassess the Fed path), that can change how investors price “duration” assets—including large-cap tech and AI infrastructure names.
Risks to keep in mind before the bell
Cisco’s recent run makes the stock more sensitive to disappointment. Key risks that investors commonly flag include:
- AI infrastructure cyclicality: A slowdown in data center buildouts—or tighter financing for some parts of the data center ecosystem—could ripple into networking demand. [31]
- Competitive pressure in networking: Competition is a recurring concern in switching/routing, and market structure may shift as large networking deals evolve (including the HPE–Juniper landscape). [32]
- Execution on Splunk strategy: Product announcements are positive, but investors will look for sustained growth and integration benefits. [33]
- Policy and tariff uncertainty: Cisco explicitly noted tariff impacts are embedded in margin and EPS guidance assumptions. [34]
What to watch specifically on Monday, Dec. 15
If you’re tracking Cisco stock into the open, here’s a practical Monday checklist:
- Price action vs. the recent ~$80 zone: Cisco has recently traded at multi-decade highs, and round-number levels can matter for short-term positioning. [35]
- Any weekend or early-morning headlines: Especially about AI capex sentiment, networking peers, or enterprise IT spending. [36]
- Annual meeting chatter into Tuesday: Watch for proxy-related headlines and whether the shareholder proposal draws unusual attention. [37]
- Rates and index tone: After the Fed’s Dec. 10 move, big shifts in yields can set the mood for the entire tech complex at the open. [38]
Bottom line
Cisco enters Dec. 15 with real momentum: the company’s own numbers show accelerating AI-related order activity, improving guidance, and continued capital returns. [39] The stock’s push above its dot-com-era peak has also put CSCO back on the radar of investors who haven’t treated it as a “story stock” in years. [40]
But with that renewed attention comes a higher bar. Monday’s open is less about whether Cisco is “an AI stock” in name—and more about whether the market still believes Cisco can convert AI orders and campus refresh momentum into durable FY2026 results while navigating competition, policy risks, and the broader AI capex debate. [41]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Consider your risk tolerance and consult a licensed professional for individualized guidance.
References
1. www.barrons.com, 2. www.macrotrends.net, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. investor.cisco.com, 6. investor.cisco.com, 7. investor.cisco.com, 8. investor.cisco.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. investor.cisco.com, 11. investor.cisco.com, 12. investor.cisco.com, 13. www.cisco.com, 14. blogs.cisco.com, 15. investor.cisco.com, 16. investor.cisco.com, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.macrotrends.net, 25. www.investors.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. investor.cisco.com, 28. investor.cisco.com, 29. investor.cisco.com, 30. www.federalreserve.gov, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. investor.cisco.com, 34. investor.cisco.com, 35. www.barrons.com, 36. www.ft.com, 37. www.sec.gov, 38. www.federalreserve.gov, 39. investor.cisco.com, 40. www.barrons.com, 41. investor.cisco.com
