Citigroup (C) Stock: 2025 Rally, Fresh Capital Moves and 2026 Outlook After a 50% Surge

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is ending 2025 on a high note. The stock is trading around $108 per share on Friday, 5 December 2025, putting the bank’s market value in the neighborhood of $190–195 billion after a year in which the shares have climbed more than 50% and outpaced the broader large‑cap bank index. ^[1]

After a decade of underperformance versus rivals like JPMorgan Chase, Citi’s aggressive restructuring under CEO Jane Fraser—including job cuts, exits from 14 international consumer markets and a flatter, five‑business operating model—has finally started to show up in revenues, returns and investor sentiment. ^[2]

The past few weeks have been especially busy: Citi has announced a CFO transition, a major reshuffling of its U.S. consumer businesses, the redemption of one preferred stock series, a new $2.5 billion preferred offering, award‑winning performance in its Markets division and a smaller‑than‑usual class of new managing directors. ^[3]

With the stock now trading roughly at book value and modestly above tangible book, investors are asking a simple question: Is there still upside left in Citigroup stock in 2026, or has the 2025 rally priced in the turnaround?

Citigroup Stock Today: Price, Performance and Valuation

Price and performance snapshot

• Share price (midday 5 Dec 2025): about $108–109
• Market capitalization: roughly $194 billion ^[4]
• 2025 year‑to‑date performance: shares up over 50%, beating the large‑cap bank index ^[5]
• 1‑year gain: low‑to‑mid‑50% range, according to recent valuation work by Simply Wall St ^[6]

Citi’s strong run has been driven by better‑than‑expected earnings, ongoing cost cuts and a perception that the bank is finally closing the profitability gap with peers while still trading on a discount to many large U.S. banks on key metrics such as return on equity and price‑to‑book. ^[7]

Book value and tangible book

From Citi’s third‑quarter 2025 results:

• Book value per share:$108.41
• Tangible book value per share (TBV):$95.72 ^[8]

With the stock around $108, Citi trades at roughly 1.0× stated book value and about 1.1–1.2× tangible book value. That’s a big improvement from the deep discount to book at which the shares traded for much of the last decade, but still leaves Citi cheaper on this measure than some large U.S. peers. ^[9]

Analyst ratings and price targets

The sell‑side view is constructive but no longer screamingly cheap:

• MarketBeat compiles 18 analysts’ 12‑month targets and finds an average price target of $108.70, with a high of $134 and a low of $75.50. That implies only about 0.25% upside from recent levels and a “Moderate Buy” consensus (11 Buys, 7 Holds). ^[10]
• StockAnalysis.com shows 15 analysts with a “Buy” consensus and an average target of $104.43, actually a 3–4% downside from today’s price, though the range is the same $75.50–$134. ^[11]
• Goldman Sachs today trimmed its target slightly, to $113 from $114, but kept a Buy/Overweight rating. Goldman notes that across Wall Street, the average target sits around $115.62, leaving mid‑single‑digit upside on consensus. ^[12]
• Morgan Stanley is among the more bullish houses, recently raising its target to $134 and projecting Citi’s return on tangible common equity (RoTCE) could climb to 10.3% in 2026, 11.3% in 2027 and 11.8% in 2028, assuming the turnaround continues to deliver. ^[13]

In other words: Wall Street mostly likes Citi here, but expectations are no longer low. The stock now trades right around the average target from many models, with upside depending heavily on management hitting its revised profitability goals.

Q3 2025: A Strong Quarter That Underpinned the Rally

Citi’s third‑quarter 2025 numbers, reported in October, were a key catalyst for the recent leg higher in the stock. ^[14]

Headline financials

For Q3 2025, Citigroup reported:

• Revenue:$22.1 billion, up 9% year‑on‑year
• Net income:$3.8 billion vs. $3.2 billion in Q3 2024
• Diluted EPS:$1.86, or $2.24 excluding a one‑off goodwill impairment tied to the Banamex transaction
• Return on equity (ROE):7.1%, or 8.5% excluding the notable item
• RoTCE:8.0%, or 9.7% excluding the notable item ^[15]

Operating expenses rose 9% on a reported basis, but only 3% excluding the Banamex impairment, reflecting higher compensation and technology investment offset by productivity gains and stranded‑cost reductions. ^[16]

Credit costs remained manageable:

• Cost of credit:$2.5 billion, down 8% versus the prior year
• Allowance for credit losses (ACL):$23.8 billion
• Non‑accrual loans: up to $3.7 billion, a 70% rise, largely from idiosyncratic corporate downgrades and mortgage exposures affected by California wildfires. ^[17]

Citi ended the quarter with:

• Loans:$734 billion, up 7% year‑on‑year
• Deposits: about $1.4 trillion, up 6%
• CET1 capital ratio:13.2%
• Supplementary leverage ratio:5.5% ^[18]

Management returned approximately $6.1 billion to common shareholders in the quarter via share repurchases and dividends, bringing year‑to‑date capital return to roughly $12 billion. ^[19]

Record results across businesses

Jane Fraser highlighted that all five of Citi’s core businesses posted record third‑quarter revenues with positive operating leverage:

• Services revenue up 7%, its best quarter ever
• Markets revenue up 15%, also a record Q3 despite low volatility
• Banking revenue up 34%, with improving investment‑banking share
• Wealth added a record $18.6 billion of net new investment assets
• U.S. Personal Banking (USPB) also delivered record revenue, up 7% ^[20]

That breadth of growth is important: it suggests Citi’s transformation is not just about cost‑cutting but also about expanding profitable franchises in cards, wealth, markets and services.

Fresh Corporate Moves: CFO Transition, Capital Actions and AI Push

CFO transition and U.S. consumer reshuffle

On 20 November 2025, Citi announced that long‑time CFO Mark Mason will step down from the role in March 2026, becoming Executive Vice Chair and Senior Executive Advisor to Fraser, while Gonzalo Luchetti, currently Head of U.S. Personal Banking, will take over as CFO. ^[21]

The announcement came with a significant re‑org of U.S. consumer operations:

• Retail Banking and U.S. Citigold will be folded into the Wealth business under Andy Sieg, with Kate Luft leading a unified U.S. Retail Banking and Citigold franchise.
• U.S. Consumer Cards will become a standalone core business, led by Pam Habner, reporting directly to Fraser and joining the Executive Management Team. ^[22]

The move signals two things investors care about:

1. Wealth and affluent‑client banking are central to Citi’s growth story.
2. Cards and unsecured lending remain a key profit engine and will get more focus at the top table.

During Luchetti’s tenure as Head of U.S. Personal Banking, the unit delivered 12 consecutive quarters of positive operating leverage and a 14.5% RoTCE in Q3 2025, more than double the prior year’s level, bolstering his credibility as incoming CFO. ^[23]

Preferred stock redemption and new issuance

Citi is also fine‑tuning its capital stack:

• On 3 December 2025, it announced the full redemption of $1.5 billion of 4.000% Fixed Rate Reset Noncumulative Preferred Stock, Series W, with related depositary shares to be redeemed on 10 December at $1,000 per share, plus the previously declared dividend. ^[24]
• Separately, Citi has launched a $2.5 billion offering of new preferred stock: 2.5 million depositary shares, each representing a 1/25 interest in a share of 6.625% fixed‑rate reset noncumulative perpetual preferred stock, Series HH, also expected to close on 10 December. ^[25]

The redemption of lower‑coupon legacy capital and replacement with higher‑coupon, more flexible preferreds reflects Citi’s ongoing liability management strategy, balancing funding cost, regulatory capital requirements and investor appetite for yield. ^[26]

Markets business wins big

Citi’s Markets division—already in the spotlight after its record Q3—added more bragging rights this week. On 2 December, the bank announced that its Markets business had swept the Risk Awards 2026, winning:

• Derivatives House of the Year
• Interest Rates Derivatives House of the Year
• Inflation Derivatives House of the Year
• Derivatives Client Clearer of the Year ^[27]

The awards underscore Citi’s strength in trading and risk management, a key differentiator as global rates and FX volatility remain elevated.

Internal AI platform and productivity

Beyond the balance sheet, Citi is leaning hard into technology. In September, it rolled out an enhanced internal AI platform, Citi Stylus Workspaces, now powered by Agentic AI. The bank says the system helps employees tackle longer, multi‑step tasks and supports its push to become a more technology‑driven, productive institution. ^[28]

Combined with 2024’s plan to cut 20,000 jobs and simplify its structure, these investments are meant to boost efficiency and ultimately support the new 10–11% RoTCE target for 2026, revised down from the earlier 11–12% goal to accommodate extra spending on transformation and growth. ^[29]

Strategic Overhaul: Banamex, Global Footprint and Transformation

A big piece of Citi’s story is its multi‑year retreat from sprawling global consumer banking towards a simpler, institutional‑ and wealth‑focused model. ^[30]

Banamex stake sale and planned IPO

On 24 September 2025, Citi agreed to sell a 25% stake in its Mexican unit Grupo Financiero Banamex to a company controlled by Mexican billionaire Fernando Chico Pardo and his family for about 42 billion pesos (≈$2.3 billion). ^[31]

Key points:

• The deal values Banamex at roughly $9.1 billion.
• Citi recorded a $726 million goodwill impairment in Q3 tied to the transaction. ^[32]
• Chico Pardo will become chairman of Banamex; Citi retains and plans to grow its institutional business in Mexico. ^[33]
• Citi still prefers an IPO as the ultimate exit, despite a fresh bid from Grupo México, and expects the listing in the second half of 2026, subject to market conditions and approvals. ^[34]

The Banamex transaction marks the final major international consumer exit under Fraser’s 2021 plan to withdraw retail operations from 14 markets and sharpen Citi’s focus on its global network and institutional strengths. ^[35]

Fresh News Flow: MD Promotions, Lead Logistics and Conferences

Beyond high‑level strategy, there’s been a steady stream of more granular news in early December.

Smaller MD class signals selectivity

On 3 December, Citi said it promoted 276 employees to managing director in 2025—the smallest MD class since 2020, down from 344 in 2024. Nearly half are based in North America and about 28% are women, with Markets (55 MDs) and Banking (45) leading the promotions. ^[36]

The reduced class size fits with the bank’s push to tighten costs and focus promotions on roles linked to its strategic priorities: markets, wealth, services and technology. ^[37]

Commodities logistics: moving lead stocks

In the commodities unit, Citi is reportedly moving around 88,000 tons of lead from Singapore warehouses to Malaysia or Taiwan, after changes in warehouse ownership made old rent deals less attractive. The shift could cost roughly $5 million, including shipping and fees—small relative to Citi’s size but another reminder of its deep involvement in global metals markets. ^[38]

Upcoming Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference

Investors will get another look at Citi’s messaging when Mark Mason and incoming CFO Gonzalo Luchetti present at the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference on 9 December 2025. A live webcast and transcript will be available via Citi’s investor relations site, and management is expected to reiterate progress toward its 2026 RoTCE targets and transformation milestones. ^[39]

What Do Independent Valuation Models Say?

Simply Wall St: still undervalued

A new Simply Wall St piece published today asks whether Citi’s 2025 rally has left the stock “too pricey” and concludes “Result: UNDERVALUED.”

Their detailed excess‑returns model highlights: ^[40]

• Book value per share: $108.41
• Stable EPS estimate: ~$10.27
• Average ROE:8.63%
• Cost of equity: roughly equivalent to $9.76 per share
• Intrinsic value: about $129 per share, implying Citi is roughly 16–17% undervalued versus current prices

They also note that Citi trades at a P/E of about 14.3×, higher than the U.S. banks sector average near 11.6× but below their “fair” multiple estimate of 16.8×, again pointing to some remaining upside if the bank delivers on growth and returns. ^[41]

Street EPS expectations

Recent research collated by MarketBeat suggests analysts expect:

• 2025 EPS: around $7.5–7.9 per share (one article cites $7.53 as the current‑year consensus). ^[42]

If Citi can get RoTCE into the 10–11% range by 2026, as management and several brokers project, many models argue that the stock could justify a higher multiple and a price well above current levels—hence the upper‑end targets around $130+ from the bull camp. ^[43]

Macro Backdrop: Citi’s Own Strategists Stay Pro‑Cyclical

Citi’s research arm is also leaning into risk assets. Today the bank’s strategists set a year‑end 2026 target for the STOXX 600 at 640, about 10.5% above the index’s latest close, citing fiscal support and easier monetary policy. They favor cyclical sectors including banks, travel & leisure, basic resources and industrials, while turning more cautious on expensive European tech. ^[44]

While that call is about European equities, it reinforces a broader house view that financials can still do well in a world of moderate growth, lower‑but‑positive real rates and strong fiscal support—conditions that would also suit Citi’s trading, wealth and institutional franchises.

Key Risks to the Citi Bull Case

Even as the story improves, Citi is not risk‑free. Major watch‑outs include:

1. Execution risk on transformation
   • Citi is simultaneously shrinking its footprint, overhauling technology, cutting tens of thousands of roles and changing its org chart. Past restructurings at big banks have sometimes led to operational mishaps and regulatory issues, not just cost savings. ^[45]
2. Profitability targets are still below peers
   • Management’s revised 2026 RoTCE goal of 10–11% is an improvement from current levels (~8–10% depending on adjustments) but still trails some U.S. megabanks. Missing even that reduced target could quickly cool enthusiasm. ^[46]
3. Credit quality and non‑accruals
   • Non‑accrual loans jumped 70% year‑on‑year to $3.7 billion in Q3, with corporate non‑accruals more than doubling to $2.1 billion. While still manageable relative to Citi’s size, the trend bears watching if global growth weakens. ^[47]
4. Regulatory and capital pressures
   • As a globally systemic bank, Citi remains under intense regulatory scrutiny, including ongoing work on risk and data controls after past penalties. Changes in capital rules or stress‑test assumptions could constrain buybacks or dividend growth. ^[48]
5. Mexican and emerging‑market exposure
   • The Banamex deal and planned IPO still require regulatory approvals and favorable market windows. Political shifts or macro turbulence in Mexico could affect valuation and timing. ^[49]

So Is Citigroup Stock a Buy After Its 2025 Surge?

From a high level, the bullish case for Citi stock today looks like this:

• The bank is finally delivering broad‑based revenue growth and positive operating leverage across all major businesses. ^[50]
• The capital position is strong, with a CET1 ratio above 13% even after heavy buybacks. ^[51]
• Management is simplifying the franchise, exiting lower‑return retail markets and doubling down on services, cards, wealth and markets. ^[52]
• Independent valuation work still finds the shares 10–20% below estimated intrinsic value, and several major brokers see fair value well into the $120–130+ range if Citi hits its 2026–2028 RoTCE path. ^[53]

The bearish or cautious view emphasizes that:

• After a 50%+ run, Citi no longer trades at a deep discount; it’s now roughly at book value and close to some consensus price targets. ^[54]
• Profitability still lags peers, and management already had to lower its 2026 RoTCE target once, raising questions about further resets if the macro backdrop deteriorates. ^[55]
• Rising non‑accrual loans and ongoing restructuring costs could erode earnings in a downturn, especially given Citi’s global corporate and emerging‑market exposure. ^[56]

Bottom line

For long‑term investors following the name, Citigroup in December 2025 is no longer a classic deep‑value “broken bank” story. It looks more like a re‑rating in progress:

• The easy money from multiple expansion off distressed valuations may be behind us.
• Further upside now depends on execution—specifically, whether Jane Fraser’s team can push RoTCE into the low double digits, complete the Banamex exit, keep a lid on credit costs and extract real productivity gains from AI and a leaner organization.

If Citi succeeds, today’s price near book value could still look attractive in hindsight. If it stumbles, the recent rerating may prove fragile.

Disclaimer:
This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer of any financial product or service. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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