NEW YORK, Feb 3, 2026, 15:02 EST — Regular session
- Citigroup shares climbed roughly 0.4% in afternoon trading, standing out against a wider slide in U.S. stocks.
- The bank grabbed attention following a report that Glencore is nearing a deal to bring Citi on board for possible merger discussions with Rio Tinto.
- Traders remain focused on changing Treasury-curve wagers linked to the upcoming Federal Reserve leadership, alongside a data lag caused by the U.S. shutdown.
Shares of Citigroup Inc (C.N) climbed roughly 0.4% to $116.67 by 2:47 p.m. EST, swinging between $115.42 and $118.90 earlier. The S&P 500 ETF SPY dropped around 1.4%, with the Nasdaq-tracking QQQ sliding about 2.3%. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase rose about 1.1%, and Bank of America along with Wells Fargo showed modest gains.
The rates landscape has grown unsettled. Investors are betting on a steeper Treasury yield curve—the spread between short- and long-term yields—amid expectations that President Donald Trump’s Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, will advocate for rate cuts while shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet, which Reuters estimates at around $6.59 trillion. Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management, told Reuters, “The main outcome of shrinking the balance sheet would be to have a yield curve that is more normally positively sloped.” (Reuters)
Citi’s position on both sides of the tape makes this crucial. A steeper curve boosts banks’ earnings by widening the gap between lending rates and deposit costs. Meanwhile, a busy deal calendar keeps fee income steady when trading activity slows.
Dealmaking buzz has kept the bank in the spotlight. Glencore is reportedly near naming Citi as its lead investment bank for possible merger talks with Rio Tinto, according to two people with knowledge of the situation who spoke to Reuters. Citi Global Markets also filed disclosures with the UK Takeover Panel listing itself as connected to Glencore. UK rules set a deadline for a firm offer or walk-away by Feb. 5, though extensions can happen. Reuters previously reported Rio has tapped JPMorgan, Evercore, and Macquarie, with these banks competing for advisory fees that could top $100 million. Both Citi and Glencore declined to comment. (Reuters)
The stock trade isn’t hinging on just one headline. It’s more about whether the bank can sustain its balance — spread income on one side, fees on the other — amid ongoing market swings.
Citi topped Wall Street profit forecasts for the fourth quarter in mid-January, buoyed by a pickup in dealmaking and increased demand for corporate client services, Reuters reported. Investment banking fees jumped 35% to $1.29 billion, the article noted, while CEO Jane Fraser signaled that more staff cuts remain a possibility. (Reuters)
Macro data faced a setback as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the January employment report, due Friday, won’t be released. A partial federal government shutdown has stalled Labor Department operations. “The release will be rescheduled upon the resumption of government funding,” said Emily Liddel, an associate commissioner at the BLS, in a statement to Reuters. Former BLS commissioner Erica Groshen added the agency’s staff was “already under extreme pressure.” (Reuters)
When the payrolls report misses expectations, traders dig deeper into whatever they can find — company comments, surveys, and market pricing — to gauge growth and inflation. That often leaves Treasury yields jumping around, pulling big banks along for the ride.
But the setup cuts both ways. A sharp rise in long-term yields could cool borrowing and spark credit concerns. Meanwhile, the Glencore-Rio deal talks remain fluid, with no certainty they’ll lead to a transaction or a final mandate.
Here’s what’s on deck. Traders are focused on the Glencore-Rio timeline as the Feb. 5 UK deadline approaches, along with any moves from Washington on funding and the U.S. data schedule. Citi’s next key dates are its Q1 earnings call on April 14 and investor day on May 7. (Citigroup)
