NEW YORK, March 13, 2026, 12:22 PM (EDT)
Bank of America shares picked up roughly 0.6%, trading at $47.40 late Friday morning.
BAC is suddenly getting tugged in three directions. There are looser capital rules hitting the largest U.S. banks, thanks to regulators. Interest-rate bets won’t budge, as oil prices keep pressing higher. And then, fresh jitters in private credit: non-bank lenders jumping straight into company loans.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, speaking Thursday, said a revised Basel Endgame plan and tweaks to the GSIB surcharge—a capital add-on for the biggest banks—would “right-size” requirements and shave capital demands slightly. Basel, created after the 2008 crisis, lays out global standards for how much capital banks need to absorb losses. Reuters
Equity investors pay attention when things move like this. According to a Morgan Stanley note mentioned by Reuters, the big banks are sitting on over $175 billion in excess capital. If rule clarity improves, that pile could get channeled into fresh lending or share buybacks.
Bank of America this week offered a look at its operating outlook. Co-President Dean Athanasia told investors that first-quarter net interest income is on track to increase at least 7%. He also projected investment-banking fees would jump 10%, while markets revenue should post a low double-digit percentage gain. “We’ve got the volatility in the capital markets area, and the investment banking area and wealth management – those are all good revenues,” Athanasia said. Reuters
Calm is nowhere to be found in the sector right now. After investors tried to pull nearly 11% of shares, Morgan Stanley clamped down on redemptions at one of its private-credit funds, according to Reuters. That’s just the latest blow—a market already rattled by comparable steps from BlackRock and Blue Owl.
It wasn’t just Bank of America rallying. JPMorgan gained roughly 1.0%, Citigroup tacked on 1.2%, and Wells Fargo edged 0.5% higher. The moves signaled a broader sector push, not just a reappraisal of one name.
Conditions haven’t improved much. Barclays pushed its forecast for the Fed’s first rate cut to September from June on Friday. Peter Cardillo at Spartan Capital Securities pointed to inflation still being “elevated, sticky,” warning that climbing energy costs might prompt the Fed to wait even longer. Reuters
Oil’s not helping. Goldman Sachs is now calling for Brent to average north of $100 a barrel in March, while Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, flagged this week: “As prices rise, consumption is affected, and, ultimately, corporate earnings erode.” For BAC, higher rates tend to boost loan income, but the downside is that growth slows, credit quality slips, and risk appetite fades. Reuters
Yet the regulatory boost remains just a proposal for now. The changes need to go through public comment, a process that might stretch out for months. Opponents are warning that easing capital requirements could leave banks more vulnerable, especially as markets reel from geopolitical tensions and private-credit jitters.
