Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is back in the spotlight on December 12, 2025 , after a major Wall Street upgrade added momentum to a stock that has already posted a standout run this year. Citi shares traded around $111.91 in the latest session (up slightly on the day), near fresh highs after a string of gains.
The immediate catalyst is JPMorgan’s upgrade to “Overweight” —a notable vote of confidence in CEO Jane Fraser’s multi-year overhaul. But the bigger story for investors is whether 2026 becomes the year Citi’s improving fundamentals finally closes the valuation gap with rivals.
Below is a full breakdown of the latest news, analyst forecasts, and market analysis available as of 12/12/2025 , plus the key catalysts and risks heading into Citi’s next earnings report.
What’s driving Citigroup stock on December 12, 2025?
JPMorgan upgrades Citigroup to “Overweight,” raises price target to $124
The headline move today comes from JPMorgan , which upgraded Citigroup to Overweight from Neutral and lifted its price target to $124 from $107 , citing growing confidence that Citi’s operational fixed and the broader economic backdrop can translate into stronger profitability. [1]
Reuters reports JPMorgan pointed to the bank’s ongoing transformation—simplification, tighter risk controls, and targeted investments—as reasons Citi may be positioned for further upside. [2]
Citi’s 2025 surge is real—but valuation still trails peers
Citi stock has risen roughly 59% in 2025 , outperforming other major US banks and ranking among the top performers in its financials peer set, according to Reuters. Yet Citi’s valuation still lags: Reuters cited Citi at about 11.2x forward earnings , versus higher multiples for JPMorgan and Bank of America. [3]
That “performance vs. valuation” tension is central to the Citi thesis heading into 2026: the market is starting to pay up, but Citi still trades like a turnaround—because it is one.
RBC lifts Citi price target to $121 (Outperform maintained)
Adding to today’s upbeat tone, RBC raised its target on Citigroup to $121 from $112 and reiterated an Outperform rating, per MT Newswires coverage. [4]
Why the Citi turnaround narrative is gaining traction
JPMorgan’s upgrade lands at a moment when Citi’s internal “fix-the-basics” effort is starting to show clearer scorecard improvements—financially and operationally.
Citi’s most recent quarter shows higher revenue, solid capital, and meaningful returns of cash
In its third-quarter 2025 results, Citi reported:
- Revenue:$22.1B
- Net income:$3.8B
- EPS:$1.86
- CET1 capital ratio:13.2%
- Book value per share:$108.41
- Tangible book value per share:$95.72
- Capital returned to common shareholders: about $6.1B via buybacks and dividends (quarterly figure shown in the release) [5]
Those numbers matter today because Citi shares are now trading around book value . Using Citi’s Q3 book value per share of $108.41 , the stock at roughly $111.91 implies ~ 1.03x price-to-book (and ~ 1.17x price-to-tangible book using $95.72 TBV). [6]
“Every business had record third-quarter revenue,” Citi said
Citi’s Q3 release also emphasized improving breadth across the franchise—important for a bank trying to prove it can deliver sustainable, diversified returns. The company highlighted revenue growth and strong performance in Services, Markets, and Banking in its CEO commentary. [7]
The macro backdrop: why big banks (including Citi) are getting more bullish coverage
A broader tailwind in today’s coverage is the idea that large banks can keep benefiting from a resilient economy and rate dynamics.
Bloomberg reported that big US bank stocks were headed toward a third straight weekly gain , helped by industry-conference updates and optimism tied to the gap between short- and long-term interest rates—an environment that can be supportive for bank profitability. [8]
For Citi specifically, today’s JPMorgan upgrade reflects a view that macro conditions plus internal execution could finally push Citi’s returns closer to peer levels. [9]
Citi’s near-term operating outlook: investment banking strength stands out
One of the more concrete near-term signals arrived earlier this week.
Citi CFO: investment banking fees expected to rise about 25% in Q4
At the Goldman Sachs US Financial Services Conference, Citi CFO Mark Mason said he expects investment banking fees to climb roughly 25% year over year in the fourth quarter, driven by strong momentum in mergers and acquisitions. [10]
Mason also said:
- the economy remains resilient though growth could slow into 2026, and
- Citi’s restructuring is advancing, with about two-thirds of transformation initiatives nearing completion , alongside continued work on compliance and risk controls. [11]
This is relevant to Citi stock because the market has long wanted evidence that Citi can lift profitability not just through cost cuts, but via stronger fee engines (Banking, Markets, Services) while improving controls.
Capital actions and funding moves: preferred stock reset and base-rate change
New Series HH preferred stock / depositary shares filing
Citi also made a notable capital-markets move in December: an 8-K outlines the creation of a new 6.625% Fixed Rate Reset Noncumulative Preferred Stock, Series HH , including an offering structure of 2,500,000 depositary shares , each representing a 1/25th interest in a share of the Series HH preferred stock. [12]
Preferred issuance can be a routine funding and capital-management tool for large banks. Investors typically watch the terms as a read-through for funding costs and balance-sheet strategy—especially in a higher-rate era.
Citi lowers base lending rate to 6.75%
In a separate corporate update, Citibank, NA said it lowered its base lending rate to 6.75% from 7.00% , effective December 11. [13]
While this is not the same as Citi’s net interest margin outlook, it’s part of the broader “rates are shifting” backdrop investors are monitoring for all banks.
Banamex: a major strategic overhang that could turn into a catalyst
Citi’s planned separation/divestiture of Banamex has been one of the most watched pieces of its multi-year simplification effort.
Citi agreed to sell 25% of Banamex to Fernando Chico Pardo
Citi previously announced an agreement for Fernando Chico Pardo (and family) to purchase a 25% equity stake in Banamex at a fixed 0.80x local GAAP book value at closing, with estimated consideration of ~MXN 42 billion (~$2.3B) . [14]
Report: Mexico nearing approval for the stake purchase
Bloomberg reported Mexican financial authorities were close to approving Chico Pardo’s bid for the Banamex stake, a step that could help pave the way toward a public listing timeline. [15]
Why it matters for Citi stock: progress on Banamex is a tangible example of simplification execution—and a potential source of value realization that markets may increasingly price in.
Analyst forecasts roundup: where Wall Street sees Citi stock next
Today’s upgrade cycle matters because Citi has historically traded at a discount, and target changes can influence sentiment—especially when the stock is already near consensus.
New/updated targets investors are watching this week
- JPMorgan:$124 price target; Overweight rating (upgrade) [16]
- RBC:$121 price target; Outperform rating (reiterated) [17]
- Piper Sandler: raised target to $120 from $110 , keeping Overweight , after Citi conference commentary that included remarks from the incoming CFO. [18]
- Wells Fargo (context): Reuters notes analyst Mike Mayo reiterated Citi as a top pick into 2026 and has previously argued the stock could potentially double over a multi-year horizon, contingent on execution. [19]
Consensus targets vary by data provider—here’s the key takeaway
Depending on the dataset and timing, consensus targets cluster in the low-to-mid $110s , with highs reaching the $130s :
- MarketBeat shows an average target around $112.47 with a high target of $134 and low of $77 . [20]
- StockAnalysis shows an average target around $108.33 and a median of $115 , with a high of $134 . [21]
The practical takeaway: after the rally, Citi is no longer “ignored.” The debate has shifted to whether Citi can earn a sustained re-rating by lifting returns and proving the new operating model is sustainable.
What to watch next: catalysts for Citi stock into early 2026
1) Citi’s next earnings date: January 14, 2026
Citi has scheduled its Fourth Quarter 2025 financial results release for Wednesday, January 14, 2026 (press release around 8 am ET; webcast around 11 am ET). [22]
With Citi shares near multi-year highs, the bar may be rising—not just for headline EPS, but for:
- expense discipline and “stranded cost” progress,
- credit-loss trends,
- Markets/Banking fee momentum, and
- any clarity on regulatory and controls remediation timelines.
2) Transformation execution and control environment
Both JPMorgan’s upgrade framing and Citi management commentary this week put internal execution at the center of the thesis: simplification, risk controls, and investing in core franchises. [23]
3) Banamex timeline and value realization
Any confirmed regulatory approvals, closing milestones, or clearer IPO path details can shift the narrative from “overhang” to “unlock.” [24]
Risks investors should not ignore
Even with upgrades rolling in, Citi remains a bank stock exposed to real macro and idiosyncratic risks:
- Credit cycle risk: Rising net credit losses or deterioration in consumer/corporate credit can pressure earnings (especially if the economy slows more than expected).
- Markets revenue volatility: Trading and investment banking can be cyclical; a weak capital markets quarter can swing results. [25]
- Regulatory and operational execution: Citi is still in a “prove it” phase for controls and efficiency improvements—one reason valuation has historically lagged peers. [26]
- Rate sensitivity: Shifts in the yield curve can help or hurt net interest income; today’s bullish bank narrative assumes supportive rate trends persist. [27]
Other Citi-related headlines dated December 12, 2025: institutional filings
Not all “news” moves the stock, but filings can be useful context.
MarketBeat reported that:
- Quantinno Capital Management increased its Citi position during Q2, and
- Caption Management disclosed a new Citi position during Q2,
with MarketBeat also citing institutional ownership levels above 70%. [28]
These are backward-looking filings rather than forward guidance—but they can signal that professional investors have been adding exposure during Citi’s 2025 run.
Bottom line: Citi’s rally meets a new question for 2026—re-rating or plateau?
Citigroup stock is ending 2025 with a powerful mix of momentum and improving fundamentals: rising revenue, healthy capital, meaningful shareholder returns, and a transformation story that’s winning more believers. [29]
Today’s JPMorgan upgrade—and RBC’s higher target—add fresh fuel, but they also crystallize the debate for 2026: can Citi sustain profitability gains and close its valuation discount versus peers, or has the market already priced in the easy part of the turnaround? [30]
Either way, the next major checkpoint is closed: Citi’s Q4 earnings on January 14, 2026 . [31]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.marketscreener.com, 5. www.citigroup.com, 6. www.citigroup.com, 7. www.citigroup.com, 8. www.bloomberg.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.citigroup.com, 13. www.citigroup.com, 14. www.citigroup.com, 15. www.bloomberg.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.marketscreener.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. www.citigroup.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.bloomberg.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.bloomberg.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.citigroup.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.citigroup.com
