City Developments Limited (CDL) is ending 2025 with momentum that’s hard to ignore. On the last trading day before the weekend (Dec. 19), CDL shares closed at S$7.98 after touching a new 52-week high of S$8.03—a level not seen since the stock’s sharp drawdown earlier in the year. FT Markets
By the numbers, the move caps a strong run: the share price is up roughly high‑50% over the past year, and CDL’s 52‑week range now spans S$4.32 to S$8.03. FT Markets
So what’s driving the late‑year rally—and what are investors and analysts watching as of 21 Dec 2025?
Why CDL shares are moving: the market is pricing in “capital recycling” actually happening
CDL’s story in late 2025 has a very specific rhythm: sell mature assets, unlock gains, recycle capital, and selectively buy assets with yield and long-run optionality. It’s not just a slogan—there’s a paper trail.
1) Quayside Isle divestment: S$97.3m deal, premium to book, completion targeted for Q1 2026
On Dec. 16, CDL announced it agreed to divest Quayside Isle @ Sentosa Cove for S$97.3 million (about S$2,205 psf), representing a premium of around 47% over book value. CDL said completion is expected in Q1 2026, and described the sale as its eighth contracted divestment of the year. CDL
Notably for valuation nerds: management cited an exit capitalisation rate of 2.6%, signalling strong pricing for a waterfront, income‑producing asset. CDL
2) CDL’s own scoreboard: ~S$2b divestments vs ~S$1.7b acquisitions in 2025
In the same Quayside Isle release, CDL said that including the Quayside transaction, the group has secured around S$2 billion in total divestments in 2025, outpacing total acquisitions of about S$1.7 billion. CDL
That “net seller” posture matters for a developer with meaningful debt and cyclical earnings—because it can reduce gearing, fund land replenishment, and potentially expand shareholder returns (buybacks/dividends), depending on board decisions.
The other big headline: CDL expands in London hospitality with a £280m acquisition
On Dec. 2, CDL (via its hotel arm) completed the acquisition of the 706-room Holiday Inn London – Kensington High Street for £280 million (about S$480 million). The company framed it as a rare freehold site in a prime borough with redevelopment potential and expected running yield of over 6%. SGX Links
CDL also pointed to operating strength: the hotel reportedly achieved occupancy of over 97% for the nine months to September 2025, and trailing 12‑month revenue exceeded £39 million. SGX Links
Strategically, CDL positioned the deal as “selective” alongside its broader divestment programme—explicitly noting that divestments have outpaced acquisitions, while also highlighting that some 2025 investment spending replenished its Singapore residential pipeline. SGX Links
A quick recap of the 2025 divestment drumbeat investors are still digesting
While Quayside Isle and the London acquisition are the freshest headlines, they sit inside a larger 2025 reshuffle:
- Japan hotel divestment: CDL said in late November it agreed to divest Bespoke Hotel Osaka Shinsaibashi for JPY 14 billion (about S$117 million) to funds managed by Blackstone, with completion expected in December 2025. CDL
- US multifamily sale: CDL (via Millennium & Copthorne Hotels) divested a Silicon Valley-area residential asset for US$143.5 million, saying it would help reduce gearing and redeploy capital. The Business Times
This sequencing is one reason CDL’s share price action in mid‑December stood out: across the week, the stock climbed from S$7.36 (Dec. 15 close) to S$7.98 (Dec. 19 close)—about an 8% gain in four sessions—while repeatedly printing fresh 52‑week highs along the way. Stock Analysis
Operational reality check: what CDL reported in its Q3 2025 update
The “portfolio optimisation” narrative only works if the underlying machine keeps selling homes, leasing space, and running hotels. CDL’s Operational Update for the quarter ended 30 Sep 2025 offers a useful snapshot.
Singapore development sales: Q3 softer, but 9M 2025 strong
- Q3 2025: CDL and JV associates sold 88 units with sales value S$313.2 million, down from 321 units / S$611.1 million in Q3 2024, largely because there were no new launches in the quarter. SGX Links
- 9M 2025: CDL and JV associates sold 990 units totaling S$2.5 billion in sales value (vs 905 units / S$1.8 billion in 9M 2024). SGX Links
- CDL highlighted strong sales at The Orie JV project (launched January), with 730 units (94%) sold. SGX Links
Zyon Grand: a blockbuster launch that supports the “demand is back” thesis
CDL also flagged October sales momentum at Zyon Grand (a JV project), where 590 units (84%) were sold on launch weekend at an average selling price of S$3,050 psf, including a penthouse transaction above S$10 million. SGX Links
Investment properties: occupancies that look like a landlord flex
As of 30 Sep 2025, CDL reported:
- Office committed occupancy:97.3%, vs an island-wide rate of 88.8% (URA statistic cited by the company). SGX Links
- Retail committed occupancy:96.9%, vs an island-wide 93.1%; City Square Mall at 98% committed occupancy. SGX Links
Balance sheet markers: net gearing 69%, interest cover 4.0x, cash reserves S$2.5b
CDL reported net gearing (after factoring fair value on investment properties) at 69%, interest cover at 4.0 times, and cash reserves of S$2.5 billion (as of 30 Sep 2025). SGX Links
Those are not small numbers—and they’re a big part of why investors care about divestment proceeds and refinancing conditions going into 2026.
Analyst forecasts and target prices: the Street is split, but the centre of gravity has shifted up
Late 2025 brought a noticeable upgrade cycle across Singapore developers, and CDL is a main character in that rerating conversation.
RHB: upgraded CDL to “Buy,” target price raised to S$8.50
In November, RHB upgraded CDL to “buy” and raised its target price to S$8.50 (from S$6.50), pointing to Singapore residential strength and asset divestments. RHB also noted CDL’s net gearing and interest cover metrics, and framed capital recycling as a key support for the equity story. The Business Times
DBS Research: “Buy,” target price hiked to S$11.80
On Dec. 11, DBS Research took a bullish stance on developers and raised CDL’s target price to S$11.80 from S$9, keeping a “buy” call. The thesis leaned on a lower-rate environment, capital recycling, and the idea that developers can unlock value by restructuring stabilised assets (for example via REIT routes or stapled structures). The Business Times
DBS also floated the possibility that a special dividend could be on the cards for CDL, linked to the gains from the South Beach divestment—important context for yield-focused investors, even though this is not a promise and depends on board decisions. The Business Times
Consensus snapshot: ~S$8.4–S$8.7 “middle,” with a very wide high/low range
Depending on the source and timing of estimates:
- Market data aggregators show a consensus/average target around S$8.41, with a high estimate reaching S$11.80 and a low around S$5.30 (reflecting how differently analysts weigh cycle risk, governance, and asset value realisation). MarketScreener
- Another consensus compilation (stated as SGX-sourced) puts the consensus target at S$8.655 as of 21 Dec 2025. Beansprout
With CDL last closing at S$7.98, those “centre-mass” targets imply mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit upside—while the more bullish case implies dramatically higher upside if value unlocking accelerates and the market applies a smaller discount to revalued assets. FT Markets
The 2026 setup: rates look friendlier, but the Singapore housing cycle may cool from a very hot 2025
CDL’s 2026 outlook sits at the intersection of macro, policy, and sentiment.
Singapore growth is expected to slow in 2026
A Reuters report on a Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) economists’ survey said economists raised their 2025 GDP forecast to 4.1%, but expect 2026 growth to slow to 2.3%. Reuters
For developers, slowing GDP doesn’t automatically mean falling home prices—but it tends to compress risk appetite, especially if household income growth cools.
2025 was great for new private home sales; 2026 may be tougher
A Business Times commentary noted that analysts reckon new private home sales (excluding executive condominiums) could come in around 11,000 for 2025, the highest in four years—setting a high bar for 2026. The Business Times
DBS Research similarly expects transaction volumes likely lower in 2026 (after a robust 2025), though it expects overall price quantum to remain broadly stable or inch higher, with growth increasingly constrained by real income trends. The Business Times
The “elephant in the boardroom” factor: governance still matters for CDL’s valuation discount
No serious CDL stock discussion in 2025 is complete without addressing the earlier governance shock.
In February 2025, CDL trading was suspended amid an internal dispute, after chairman Kwek Leng Beng accused CEO Sherman Kwek of an attempted boardroom “coup.” Reuters
In March 2025, Reuters reported the chairman dropped the lawsuit, with both chairman and CEO remaining in their roles and the board composition unchanged. Reuters
Even if the operational story is improving, governance risk can keep a valuation discount alive—especially for an asset-heavy company where investor trust is part of the “multiple.”
What to watch next: near-term catalysts that could move CDL stock
Going into early 2026, CDL investors are likely to focus on a few high-signal items:
- Quayside Isle completion (Q1 2026): whether the deal closes on schedule and how proceeds are deployed (debt reduction vs reinvestment vs shareholder returns). CDL
- Capital recycling follow-through: CDL has explicitly framed capital recycling as core strategy; the market will watch for additional sales and for discipline on acquisition pricing. CDL
- Residential launches and take-up: Zyon Grand’s early sales were strong; the question is whether the broader 2026 pipeline sustains that demand as volumes normalise. SGX Links
- Balance sheet trajectory: net gearing, refinancing costs, and interest cover—especially in a still uncertain global rate environment. SGX Links
Bottom line
As of 21 Dec 2025, City Developments Limited stock is being rerated on a simple but powerful idea: CDL is proving it can monetise assets at attractive prices while maintaining operating momentum, and analysts are increasingly willing to underwrite value-unlocking scenarios—especially in a lower-rate backdrop. CDL
Still, the range of analyst outcomes remains wide, and 2026 could bring a cooler demand environment after a strong 2025 housing year—meaning execution and capital allocation discipline will matter more than slogans. The Business Times
