As of Monday, December 15, 2025, Coherent Corp. (NYSE: COHR) is back in the spotlight after a new wave of analyst commentary and product momentum rekindled investor interest in the photonics and advanced materials name. The stock traded around $180 in the latest session, with an intraday range roughly spanning the mid-$170s to low-$180s, as traders weighed upbeat growth narratives against ongoing volatility in AI-linked equities.
What’s powering the renewed attention is a clear convergence of themes that matter to the market right now: AI data-center buildouts, next-generation optical networking (including “multi-rail” infrastructure), and silicon carbide (SiC) materials that address thermal and power constraints. [1]
Below is a detailed breakdown of the latest news, company outlook, and Wall Street forecasts shaping the Coherent stock narrative as of 15.12.2025.
COHR stock today: why the market is paying attention
A key near-term driver is JPMorgan’s decision to raise its price target on Coherent to $215 from $180, while maintaining an Overweight rating. In its note, the bank pointed to expanding opportunity tied to “scale-across and multi-rail” upgrades across optical networks, arguing these trends can support strong growth for longer and justify a higher earnings multiple. [2]
In parallel, market commentary linked the move to Coherent’s 300mm silicon carbide platform milestone, positioning the company as a potential beneficiary of the race to improve cooling and power efficiency inside AI-heavy data-center infrastructure. [3]
It’s worth noting that COHR has also been highly volatile, reflecting the broader push-pull in late-2025 markets between “AI infrastructure winners” and periodic rotations out of high-flyers. [4]
The big catalyst: Coherent’s 300mm silicon carbide platform for AI data centers
On December 3, 2025, Coherent announced a major milestone in its next-generation 300mm silicon carbide (SiC) platform, aimed at rising thermal efficiency demands driven by AI data-center infrastructure. [5]
Why 300mm SiC matters
Coherent says it leveraged expertise from its proven 200mm platform to develop the 300mm solution, emphasizing that as modern data centers push higher power density and thermal loads, larger-diameter SiC wafers can unlock major gains in energy efficiency and thermal performance. [6]
The company also made clear this is not a science-project announcement. Management signaled plans to ramp the 300mm platform in high volumes, framing SiC as a foundational material for scaling next-generation AI infrastructure. [7]
Beyond data centers: AR/VR and power electronics
While AI data-center thermal management is positioned as the primary focus, Coherent also highlighted adjacent markets:
- AR/VR devices (where SiC could support thinner, more efficient waveguides for compact display modules)
- Power electronics (where moving to 300mm can increase devices-per-wafer and potentially reduce cost per chip, supporting applications from EVs to renewables and industrial automation) [8]
For investors, the takeaway is simple: Coherent is trying to tie SiC not only to EV/power trends (a familiar story), but directly to the AI infrastructure bottleneck that markets are currently willing to reward—heat and energy efficiency.
Optical networking tailwinds: “Multi-Rail” upgrades and the scale-across buildout
JPMorgan’s note specifically referenced multi-rail opportunities, and Coherent’s recent product narrative provides context for why the term keeps resurfacing.
On September 26, 2025, Coherent announced major upgrades to its Multi-Rail technology platform for optical transport networks, including a new Dynamic Gain Equalizer (DGE) designed to combine C and L bands in one compact module. Coherent said the DGE can double transmission bandwidth while cutting footprint by 20%, a message that aligns directly with hyperscaler goals: expand capacity without proportionally expanding racks, power, or cooling. [9]
Coherent also said it improved Optical Channel Monitoring (OCM) by reducing scan time and increasing monitoring points per module—features that matter when operators are scaling complex networks under tight uptime requirements. [10]
This is the strategic link investors are making: AI doesn’t just require GPUs—it requires massive, power-hungry networks to connect them. If multi-rail and related innovations become must-haves in long-haul and metro networking, suppliers with credible platforms (and in-house manufacturing depth) can see multi-year demand pull-through. [11]
Latest earnings: Coherent’s Q1 FY2026 results and what management guided next
The most recent official financial update came with Coherent’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results (quarter ended September 30, 2025), released November 5, 2025.
Key numbers
Coherent reported:
- Revenue: $1.58 billion (up 17% year over year)
- GAAP gross margin: 36.6%
- Non-GAAP gross margin: 38.7%
- GAAP EPS: $1.19
- Non-GAAP EPS: $1.16 [12]
Management attributed pro forma year-over-year growth to strong demand from AI-related data centers and communications, and said it expected continued strong growth throughout the fiscal year, alongside ongoing capacity expansion. [13]
Balance sheet and cost of capital improvements
The CFO highlighted a $400 million debt paydown during the quarter and noted Coherent refinanced debt in a move expected to reduce interest expense. [14]
Forward guidance: Q2 FY2026 outlook
For the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Coherent guided:
- Revenue:$1.56B to $1.70B
- Non-GAAP gross margin:38% to 40%
- Non-GAAP operating expenses:$300M to $320M
- Non-GAAP EPS:$1.10 to $1.30 [15]
For a stock like COHR, guidance matters because it is where the market tests whether AI-driven demand is translating into durable, scalable profitability—not just top-line momentum.
Product highlights inside the earnings release
In the same Q1 FY2026 release, Coherent also pointed to multiple technology milestones relevant to the AI networking narrative, including sampling of high-power lasers for co-packaged optics and demonstrations targeting AI scale-up networks. [16]
Ownership and supply: Bain Capital conversion, block sale, and why it matters on Dec. 15
A major “under the hood” factor for COHR heading into December 15, 2025 is share supply dynamics tied to Bain Capital-related entities.
Mandatory conversion effective Dec. 15
A Schedule 13D amendment filed in connection with a December 10, 2025 event states that BCPE Watson (DE) BML, LP held Series B-2 preferred shares convertible into common stock, and that a mandatory conversion for the remaining preferred shares would become effective on December 15, 2025. [17]
Block sale details
The same filing discloses that on December 10, 2025, the reporting person:
- Converted preferred into 5,000,000 shares of common stock
- Sold those 5,000,000 shares in a block trade at $189.55 per share (aggregate proceeds cited at $947.75 million) [18]
For investors, this matters because even in strong fundamental stories, large secondary sales and conversions can create short-term technical pressure—or, alternatively, remove uncertainty once the market digests them.
Dividend waiver on preferred stock
Earlier, on November 20, 2025, Coherent filed an 8-K stating it entered into a Waiver Agreement with Bain Capital under which the holder waived rights to receive dividends on its Series B preferred stock on or after the agreement date. Coherent described it as strengthening alignment with common shareholders. [19]
Wall Street forecasts: price targets, ratings, and what they imply for COHR stock
Analyst outlook for Coherent remains broadly constructive—but price targets vary noticeably depending on the dataset and time window.
TipRanks: Moderate Buy, average target near $170
TipRanks shows a Moderate Buy consensus and an average price target of $170.09 (based on 13 analysts in the last three months), with a high forecast of $220 and low of $113. [20]
MarketBeat: Moderate Buy, average target near $154
MarketBeat also lists a Moderate Buy consensus, but with a lower average price target of $154.42 (based on 19 analyst ratings), and a high target of $215 and low of $95. [21]
How to interpret the gap
This spread is important. With COHR trading around the high-$170s/low-$180s in mid-December, some consensus datasets imply limited upside or modest downside versus current prices—while the bull case targets (roughly $215–$220) still point to meaningful upside if Coherent continues to execute and the AI/networking spending cycle stays strong. [22]
And in the very near term, JPMorgan’s $215 target is a concrete, fresh data point the market tends to notice—especially because it explicitly argues for multiple expansion tied to longer-duration growth. [23]
Additional strategic moves investors are factoring in
Coherent has also been actively reshaping its portfolio and capital structure, aiming to reduce leverage and sharpen focus on core growth markets.
One notable example: on October 31, 2025, Investing.com reported that Coherent entered an agreement to sell its materials processing tools division to Bystronic as part of a portfolio review, with proceeds intended for debt reduction and expected to be immediately accretive to EPS, and with closing expected in early 2026. [24]
Whether investors view this positively often depends on their stance: bulls see a streamlined “AI + communications + photonics” story; skeptics worry about losing diversification and becoming more exposed to cyclical swings in a few end markets.
Key risks to watch for COHR stock from here
Even with strong catalysts, Coherent sits at the intersection of multiple fast-moving, competitive markets. The main risks investors are watching include:
AI infrastructure rotations and sentiment shocks
COHR’s recent volatility underscores how quickly macro sentiment can shift in AI-linked equities, even without company-specific negatives. [25]
Execution risk on new platforms (including 300mm SiC ramp)
Moving from milestone announcements to high-volume manufacturing is where timelines, yields, and customer qualification can surprise—positively or negatively. [26]
Share supply and ownership dynamics
Preferred conversions and large block sales can affect short-term trading, particularly when the stock is near highs and momentum investors are active. [27]
Guidance pressure and margin expectations
After guiding non-GAAP EPS of $1.10–$1.30 for Q2 FY2026, the bar rises: the market will look for continued margin expansion and evidence that incremental AI-related demand is profitable demand. [28]
The bottom line on Coherent stock on Dec. 15, 2025
Coherent (COHR) enters the heart of late-2025 trading with a powerful mix of AI data-center demand, optical networking innovation, and a silicon carbide narrative that directly addresses one of AI’s biggest physical constraints: heat and power efficiency. [29]
At the same time, the stock is not “quietly compounding.” Between strong year-to-date performance cited by market commentary and ongoing share supply events, COHR remains a name where fundamentals and technicals collide—creating both opportunity and risk depending on entry point and time horizon. [30]
Investor checklist for the next catalyst window:
- Progress toward high-volume plans for the 300mm SiC platform [31]
- Evidence that multi-rail and scale-across upgrades translate into sustained bookings and margin lift [32]
- Delivery versus the company’s Q2 FY2026 guidance [33]
- Continued clarity around ownership-related conversions/sales [34]
References
1. www.tipranks.com, 2. www.tipranks.com, 3. www.coherent.com, 4. www.barchart.com, 5. www.coherent.com, 6. www.coherent.com, 7. www.coherent.com, 8. www.coherent.com, 9. www.coherent.com, 10. www.coherent.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.coherent.com, 13. www.coherent.com, 14. www.coherent.com, 15. www.coherent.com, 16. www.coherent.com, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.barchart.com, 26. www.coherent.com, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.coherent.com, 29. www.coherent.com, 30. www.barchart.com, 31. www.coherent.com, 32. www.tipranks.com, 33. www.coherent.com, 34. www.sec.gov
