Coherent Corp (COHR) Stock Jumps to Fresh Highs on 300mm Silicon Carbide Breakthrough – Price, Forecast & AI Datacenter Outlook as of December 4, 2025

Coherent Corp (NYSE: COHR) is back in the spotlight. As of early afternoon trading on December 4, 2025, the photonics and materials specialist is trading around $179 per share, up roughly 4.8–5% on the day, after touching an intraday high above $186 on heavy volume. ^[1]

The move extends a powerful rally driven by AI datacenter demand, a strong earnings beat, and a new 300mm silicon carbide (SiC) platform aimed directly at the thermal and power challenges of next‑generation data centers. ^[2]

Below is a detailed, news‑driven look at Coherent stock, bringing together today’s price action, fresh forecasts, new products and key risks as of December 4, 2025, for readers following COHR via Google News and Discover.

Coherent stock today: price, performance and valuation

Multiple real‑time data providers show Coherent trading just under $180, with:

• Day range: roughly $169–186, indicating strong intraday volatility. ^[3]
• 52‑week range: around $45.6–186.5, meaning COHR has almost quadrupled from its April 2025 lows and set a fresh 52‑week high earlier today. ^[4]
• Market cap: about $27–28 billion, depending on the source and exact price snapshot. ^[5]
• 1‑year change: roughly +60–65% over the last twelve months. ^[6]

On valuation, StockAnalysis and other aggregators peg Coherent at roughly:

• Trailing EPS (ttm): about $0.76
• Trailing P/E: ~230–236x
• Forward P/E: around 33x, based on rising earnings forecasts. ^[7]

In other words, COHR now trades like a high‑growth AI infrastructure play, not a deep‑value turnaround: a lot of optimism is already baked into the stock.

New 300mm silicon carbide platform: why the December 3 announcement matters

On December 3, 2025, Coherent announced a next‑generation 300mm silicon carbide (SiC) platform specifically targeted at AI datacenter thermal‑management and power‑electronics applications. ^[8]

Key points from the company’s release and expert commentary:

• Coherent is extending its proven 200mm SiC expertise to 300mm wafers, aiming to support higher power density, faster switching and better thermal management in large AI data centers. ^[9]
• The new conductive 300mm SiC substrates are described as having low resistivity, low defect density and high homogeneity, which should enable low‑dissipation, high‑frequency devices and improved energy efficiency. ^[10]
• Management says the platform is intended to ramp in high volumes, with AI datacenter thermal management as the primary focus, but also use cases in AR/VR optics, EVs, renewables and industrial power electronics. ^[11]

Independent “materials & manufacturing” and “datacenter applications” experts quoted alongside the release highlight that moving to 300mm SiC is a scale and cost inflection point: more dies per wafer plus better thermal characteristics can lower cost per chip and improve datacenter energy efficiency—if yields and manufacturing metrics keep up. ^[12]

Investor takeaway:
The 300mm SiC announcement reinforces Coherent’s push to be a critical supplier of wide‑bandgap materials for AI data centers and EVs, complementing its leadership in optical transceivers. Near‑term, the news adds a new narrative driver for the stock on top of AI optics; longer‑term, investors will want to see:

• Published yield and defect metrics on 300mm wafers
• Concrete customer design‑wins and volume ramps over the next 6–18 months ^[13]

Fresh bull case: 10 straight beats, margin expansion and a $500 long‑term target

A widely circulated article on Insider Monkey, published December 4, summarises a bullish thesis from Nick Nemeth’s Mispriced Assets Substack. ^[14]

Highlights from that bull case:

• Coherent has delivered ten consecutive “double beats” (revenue and EPS beats) over more than two years, signalling consistent execution. ^[15]
• Gross margins are approaching 40%, hitting internal targets two quarters ahead of schedule, while operating margins are nearing 20%, demonstrating strong operating leverage. ^[16]
• Historically problematic industrial lasers are expected to turn positive, removing a drag on earnings as the portfolio tilts toward higher‑margin datacom optics and advanced materials. ^[17]
• The thesis argues that Coherent offers a relatively rare “growth at a reasonable price” (GARP) profile among AI infrastructure names, with rivals like Lumentum and Broadcom not combining the same upside with similar valuation and margin trajectory. ^[18]
• On the back of this execution, analyst 12‑month price targets summarised in the thesis have been lifted from $200 to $225, with a three‑year “blue‑sky” scenario around $500 per share. ^[19]

While those numbers are much more aggressive than most Wall Street targets, they encapsulate the most optimistic growth narrative around COHR: a vertically integrated photonics & materials platform leveraged to decades‑long AI and electrification cycles.

Earnings backdrop: Q1 FY2026 and FY2025 reset the baseline

FY2025: back to strong growth

Coherent’s fiscal 2025 year (ended June 30, 2025) marked a sharp turnaround:

• Revenue:$5.81 billion, up 23% year over year. TS2 Tech+1
• GAAP gross margin: about 35.2%; non‑GAAP gross margin:37.9%, both up more than 3 percentage points. TS2 Tech+1
• Non‑GAAP EPS:$3.53, up roughly 191% from the prior year, while GAAP EPS improved significantly though remained slightly negative. TS2 Tech+1
• Coherent also used improved cash flow to repay about $433–437 million of term debt, including $400 million of voluntary prepayments, materially lowering interest expense. ^[20]

The company’s 2025 annual report also confirms a segment realignment: starting FY2026, Coherent reports two segments—Datacenter & Communications and Industrial—reflecting the growing importance of AI data‑center optics versus more cyclical industrial applications. ^[21]

Q1 FY2026: AI datacenters in the driver’s seat

On November 5, 2025, Coherent reported Q1 FY2026 (quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025): TS2 Tech+2TipRanks+2

• Revenue:$1.58 billion, +17% year‑over‑year, and +19% pro‑forma excluding the divested Aerospace & Defense unit.
• GAAP gross margin:36.6%; non‑GAAP gross margin:38.7%, up roughly 200–250 bps versus a year earlier.
• Non‑GAAP EPS:$1.16, up around 73% YoY and comfortably ahead of the ~$1.04 consensus estimate.
• Management highlighted $400 million of additional debt paydown and refinancing, further strengthening the balance sheet. TS2 Tech+1

By business line:

• Datacenter‑focused optics grew in the mid‑20s percentage range, but were supply‑constrained by indium phosphide (InP) laser capacity, with expectations for ~10% sequential datacenter revenue growth in Q2 and “strong” sequential growth thereafter as new 6‑inch InP fabs in the US and Sweden ramp. TS2 Tech+1
• High‑speed ZR/ZR+ 100G/400G/800G transceivers have now delivered five consecutive quarters of sequential growth and ~55% YoY growth in Q1, underscoring sustained AI networking demand. TS2 Tech

For Q2 FY2026, Coherent guided to:

• Revenue $1.56–1.70 billion
• Non‑GAAP gross margin 38–40%
• Non‑GAAP EPS $1.10–1.30 TS2 Tech+2TipRanks+2

This combination of double‑digit growth, rising margins and deleveraging is central to the bullish thesis.

Analyst ratings and stock forecasts: a split verdict

Despite the strong fundamentals, Wall Street’s 12‑month price targets are more cautious than the market’s enthusiasm might suggest.

Street consensus targets

• MarketBeat aggregates 19 analysts with a “Moderate Buy” rating and an average 12‑month price target of $137.17, with a high of $190 and a low of $91. At today’s price near $179, that implies about 23% downside from current levels. ^[22]
• TradingView’s summary shows a slightly higher consensus target around $170.94, with the same $220 / $113 high‑low range, still a bit below the current market price. ^[23]
• A TipRanks snapshot in late November tallied 13 analysts with an average target in the mid‑$160s, again implying limited upside from then‑prevailing levels. ^[24]

Quantitative and alternative models

Beyond traditional broker research:

• StockScan aggregates a wide range of “analyst‑style” targets and shows a 30‑day average price target of about $346.94, with a wide range from roughly $105 to $589—equating to a theoretical +94% upside from around $179.23. This appears more like a model‑driven or crowdsourced forecast than conventional Wall Street guidance. ^[25]
• Intellectia.ai, a quant/technical platform highlighted in prior coverage, currently tags COHR as a short‑term “Strong Buy” based on momentum indicators, but its longer‑term model projects a volatile path, including potential drawdowns into the $90s in 2026 before recovering toward current levels by 2030. TS2 Tech
• Trefis’s scenario analysis notes COHR delivered an 18.3% one‑day gain post‑earnings and about 12–13% further gains since the Q1 release, while also flagging that the stock’s jump may be ahead of fundamentals in some scenarios. ^[26]

Rating changes and sector context

Recent moves by major banks and research firms include:

• Needham: Buy, target around $190.
• Barclays: Overweight, target raised to the $170 area.
• Stifel: Buy, around $140.
• Morgan Stanley:Equal‑Weight, but target lifted from $120 to $150 on November 6.
• Susquehanna: Positive rating with a target increase from $120 to $150. TS2 Tech+1
• Bank of America: Downgraded from Buy to Neutral in August while nudging its target up to $105, highlighting valuation risk after the early‑2025 rally. TS2 Tech

And from Zacks, Coherent appears in:

• A December 1 “Top Stock Picks of the Week” feature, which notes that full‑year earnings estimates have risen ~13% over the past three months, Coherent has beaten EPS consensus four quarters in a row, and the stock was up about 51% year‑to‑date at that point. ^[27]
• A separate EV/SiC‑focused note emphasising Coherent’s $1 billion strategic SiC investment from DENSO and Mitsubishi Electric, plus upward EPS revisions for fiscal 2026 and 2027, underscoring growing confidence in the SiC business. TS2 Tech

Bottom line:
Traditional broker targets generally see little to negative 12‑month upside from today’s price, even as quantitative and newsletter‑style models point to much larger potential gains. The gap between story and valuation is one of the defining tensions in the COHR trade right now.

Technical picture: powerful momentum, but overbought signals

Recent technical and quant analysis highlights:

• COHR has gained roughly 25% in the last month alone, according to Trefis, after surging following the Q1 beat. ^[28]
• Investor’s Business Daily and other momentum trackers show Relative Strength (RS) ratings above 90, and note that COHR broke out of a “cup‑with‑handle” pattern earlier this fall and then became extended beyond typical buy ranges. TS2 Tech
• Intellectia’s models cite bullish MACD, strong short‑term momentum and rising moving averages, but also overbought readings on oscillators and a short interest ratio above 19% as of late November—suggesting that while the trend is up, the risk of a sharp mean reversion is elevated. TS2 Tech

For traders, that means trend‑following setups still look attractive, but new entries at these levels carry greater downside risk if sentiment cools or macro conditions shift.

Insider activity and Bain Capital: selling into strength, plus a key waiver

Recent insider and large‑holder activity around Coherent has been unusually busy.

Director and executive share sales

A series of Form 4 filings and news summaries in early December show:

• Howard Xia, director and significant shareholder, sold 2,000 shares on December 3 in the $168–172 range for roughly $340,000, and still directly owns about 50,000 shares. ^[29]
• Ilaria Mocciaro, SVP of Finance, sold 1,377 shares at $162.71 on December 1, retaining roughly 24,033 shares afterwards. ^[30]
• Michelle M. Sterling, another director, sold 2,000 shares at an average of about $164.51, and now holds roughly 8,645 shares. ^[31]

TipRanks characterises the net impact of these moves as modest but notes that the sales came after a major run‑up and amid elevated expectations, naturally raising questions about whether insiders view the shares as near‑term fully valued. ^[32]

Bain Capital waiver agreement and block trades

On November 20, 2025, Coherent entered into a Waiver Agreement with Bain Capital, the holder of its Series B‑1 and B‑2 convertible preferred stock: ^[33]

• Bain irrevocably waived all rights to receive dividends on its Series B preferred shares from that date onward.
• The company emphasised that Bain still retains a substantial ownership position, and framed the waiver as aligning Bain’s interests more closely with common shareholders and supporting strategic priorities. ^[34]

Shortly after, Bloomberg and private‑equity trade press reported that Bain was seeking to sell about $1.14 billion worth of Coherent stock via a block trade, after a similar sale earlier in November, both at modest discounts to the prevailing market price. ^[35]

Interpretation:

• The dividend waiver is structurally positive for common shareholders: it reduces preferred overhang and underscores Bain’s support for Coherent’s strategy.
• The ongoing Bain sell‑downs, however, remind investors that a large legacy holder is actively reducing exposure—a potential technical headwind if further blocks come to market.

Legal and governance overhangs: shareholder investigations

Coherent also faces shareholder law‑firm investigations, a fairly common occurrence after big price swings:

• Pomerantz LLP announced in October that it is investigating potential securities claims related to Coherent, particularly around disclosures tied to the August 13 announcement to sell its Aerospace & Defense business to Advent for $400 million. ^[36]
• Rosen Law Firm similarly disclosed an investigation into whether Coherent may have provided materially misleading business information to investors. ^[37]

No class action has been proven successful at this stage; these notices primarily signal headline risk and potential legal costs, rather than established wrongdoing. Still, institutional investors will watch how these investigations evolve.

Competitive landscape: Coherent in the AI photonics and SiC race

Coherent sits at the intersection of several fast‑growing infrastructure markets:

• In AI networking, Barron’s and others list Coherent alongside Lumentum, Marvell, Broadcom and Nvidia as key providers of lasers, optical engines and high‑speed interconnect components for AI‑scale data centers. ^[38]
• A Zacks “Investment Ideas” feature on December 4 frames Coherent and Lumentum as established photonics leaders, while noting that Marvell’s acquisition of Celestial AI pushes it more deeply into optical interconnects—putting Marvell into more direct competition in the photonics layer Coherent has helped build. ^[39]
• Coherent’s product pipeline spans 800G and early 1.6T transceivers, co‑packaged optics (CPO)‑enabling photonics, polarization‑maintaining fibers, and life‑science lasers like the Axon FP femtosecond system, positioning it across datacom, industrial and scientific end markets. TS2 Tech+2Stock Titan+2

On the SiC side, Coherent’s $1 billion strategic investment from DENSO and Mitsubishi Electric, combined with its new 300mm platform, leave it well‑placed in EV and power‑electronics supply chains—though competition from Wolfspeed, onsemi and others remains intense. TS2 Tech+1

Long‑term forecasts: growth runway vs. valuation stretch

Several long‑range models and fundamental forecasters try to quantify where Coherent could be by the late 2020s:

• Simply Wall St models Coherent reaching around $7.7 billion in revenue and $732 million in earnings by 2028, implying roughly 9.8% annual revenue growth and a swing of more than $800 million from a recent net loss to substantial profitability. Their fair‑value calculation lands near $168–169 per share, broadly in line with late‑November trading levels and somewhat below today’s price. ^[40]
• S&P Global Market Intelligence previously projected about 23% revenue growth in 2025 to roughly $5.9 billion, a trajectory largely borne out by actual FY2025 results, and sees further upside tied to AI datacenters. ^[41]
• Multiple Trefis scenarios compare Coherent favorably to various industrial and photonics peers, often granting COHR higher 3‑year return potential due to stronger projected revenue and margin expansion—though some recent Trefis commentary also warns that after a ~24% monthly surge, investors may want to “wait for a dip” before adding exposure. ^[42]

The overarching theme: fundamental growth expectations have moved sharply higher, but valuation has expanded even faster, leaving less room for error.

Key risks investors are watching

Despite the excitement, several risk factors temper the bull case:

1. Valuation risk
   • Trailing P/E well above 200x and forward P/E north of 30x put COHR at a premium to many semiconductor and photonics peers. ^[43]
   • Several brokers and models (GuruFocus, MarketBeat, etc.) still see downside to their fair‑value or target estimates at current prices. TS2 Tech+1
2. Cyclical and execution risk in AI and SiC
   • AI datacenter capex has been booming, but history suggests networking and optical‑component cycles can be volatile; any slowdown in hyperscaler spending could hit orders. ^[44]
   • Scaling 300mm SiC brings manufacturing and yield challenges that could delay or dilute the anticipated cost and thermal advantages. ^[45]
3. Portfolio transition and divestitures
   • Coherent is selling off its Aerospace & Defense business and a materials‑processing tools division, trading some revenue for focus and balance‑sheet strength. That strategy depends on successfully reinvesting and scaling the remaining AI, datacom and SiC franchises. TS2 Tech+1
4. Legal and governance overhangs
   • Pomerantz and Rosen investigations raise the possibility of future litigation costs or settlements, though such probes are routine after large price moves and do not automatically imply wrongdoing. ^[46]
5. Share‑supply dynamics
   • Continued Bain Capital stake reductions and incremental insider selling could periodically pressure the share price, especially after big rallies. ^[47]

What to watch next for Coherent stock

For investors and traders monitoring COHR into 2026, the most important upcoming catalysts and datapoints include:

• Execution on the 300mm SiC roadmap
  • Look for customer design‑wins, volume shipments and yield disclosures that validate the economics of the new platform. ^[48]
• Q2 FY2026 earnings (expected February 2026)
  • Key questions: Does Coherent deliver on its guidance for 10%+ sequential datacenter growth, high‑30s gross margins and $1.10–1.30 EPS, and does it maintain the streak of “double beats”? TS2 Tech+2TipRanks+2
• AI datacenter capex trends from hyperscalers
  • Commentary from Nvidia, Marvell, Broadcom, major cloud providers and networking OEMs on optical‑interconnect demand will feed directly into expectations for Coherent’s datacom business. ^[49]
• Progress on deleveraging and credit ratings
  • Further debt paydown and potential rating upgrades from S&P or Fitch could support a higher valuation floor if growth slows. TS2 Tech+1
• Resolution—or escalation—of shareholder investigations
  • Any formal class‑action filings or settlements would matter for governance perception and potential one‑time costs. ^[50]

Final thoughts

As of December 4, 2025, Coherent Corp has transformed from a complex turnaround into a high‑beta AI‑infrastructure and SiC materials story:

• Fundamentals — Revenue, margins and EPS are all sharply higher, driven by AI datacenter optics and a more focused portfolio. TS2 Tech+1
• Narrative — The new 300mm SiC platform bolsters Coherent’s claim on the power‑electronics side of the AI and EV build‑out. ^[51]
• Market perception — Hedge‑fund letters, quant models and retail‑oriented research increasingly present COHR as a core AI infrastructure holding, while traditional Wall Street analysts remain more cautious, citing valuation. ^[52]

Whether today’s near‑record share price ultimately proves to be a launchpad or a local peak will depend on Coherent’s ability to sustain AI‑driven growth, successfully ramp 300mm SiC, manage legal and supply‑side risks, and keep delivering upside surprises.

Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of any investment strategy. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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