New York time check: It is Friday, December 26, 2025, 1:22 p.m. ET in New York.
Coinbase Global, Inc. (Nasdaq: COIN) is trading in a thin, post-Christmas U.S. stock session—the kind of day where headlines and crypto price swings can feel amplified because fewer large players are active. Wall Street reopened for a full day of trading on Friday after an early close on Christmas Eve and the Christmas Day market holiday, with many outlets warning volumes would remain light. [1]
Coinbase stock price: where COIN is trading right now
Around early afternoon in New York, COIN was down about 1%, trading near $237 (intraday range roughly $233–$241). [2]
The broader market backdrop is comparatively calm: major U.S. equity benchmarks are hovering close to flat (as reflected by large index ETFs), while crypto is slightly lower on the day—often a key input for Coinbase sentiment.
Why Coinbase tends to move fast on days like this
Coinbase is frequently treated as a high-beta proxy for the crypto cycle—rising when investors embrace risk and falling when Bitcoin and Ethereum soften. In today’s session, Bitcoin and Ether are both modestly lower, which can pressure COIN even if there’s no fresh Coinbase-specific negative news.
Meanwhile, the macro tape still matters. Heading into the session, Investopedia highlighted an environment of record-setting index closes earlier in the week, with premarket futures slightly lower and investors watching yields and risk assets. [3]
The big storyline: Coinbase is building an “Everything Exchange”
The most important theme driving Coinbase coverage this month is strategic, not just cyclical: management’s push to turn Coinbase into a single destination where users can trade crypto, derivatives, equities, and event contracts (prediction markets).
1) Coinbase is expanding into stocks, ETFs, and prediction markets
In mid-December, Coinbase laid out a product roadmap that includes stock trading and event contracts, with a stated ambition to offer a wide set of contracts inside one platform. Reuters reported Coinbase executives framing this as a move beyond “just crypto,” including plans tied to equities and prediction markets. [4]
Coinbase’s own product communications also describe this broader “super app” direction—part of a wider effort to keep customers inside the Coinbase ecosystem even when crypto spot volumes cool. [5]
2) The Clearing Company acquisition adds “onchain” prediction market expertise
On December 22, 2025, Coinbase announced an agreement to acquire The Clearing Company, describing it as a way to “power and scale” prediction markets and accelerate the “Everything Exchange” roadmap. The company said the team is led by founder Toni Gemayel and framed the deal as specialized talent for an emerging category. [6]
Reuters’ reporting on the same move noted the acquisition is expected to close in January and included Wall Street commentary that prediction markets can be high-frequency, high-engagement products that may increase activity on the platform. [7]
3) Why prediction markets matter for Coinbase’s business model
Prediction markets can produce revenue through transaction fees and can increase “stickiness” (how often users return). One Investing.com analysis argues that integrating event contracts is consistent with Coinbase’s attempt to diversify from crypto-only trading and to build an always-on consumer trading venue—while also emphasizing the regulatory and integrity scrutiny that often follows the category. [8]
Fundamentals check: what Coinbase last reported
Coinbase’s most recent detailed financial snapshot (Q3 2025) shows two critical points for investors:
- Coinbase can still generate powerful earnings when trading activity and volatility rise.
- The company is steadily expanding the share of revenue coming from subscriptions and services, including stablecoins and blockchain rewards.
From Coinbase’s Q3 2025 shareholder letter filed on EDGAR, the company reported (among other metrics):
- Total revenue:$1.8687 billion (Q3 2025) [9]
- Transaction revenue:$1.0463 billion [10]
- Subscription & services revenue:$746.7 million [11]
- Net income:$432.6 million (diluted EPS shown as $1.50) [12]
- Adjusted EBITDA:$800.7 million [13]
- Total Assets on Platform:$516 billion [14]
- Stablecoin revenue:$354.7 million; average USDC balances in Coinbase products $15 billion, and average off-platform USDC balances $53 billion [15]
Coinbase also cautioned against over-extrapolating and provided a Q4 framing point: it expected October transaction revenue of about $385 million and guided Q4 subscription & services revenue to $710–$790 million, noting growth in USDC market cap and Coinbase One subscribers could be offset by interest rate cuts. [16]
That last point is key: stablecoin-linked economics can be sensitive to rates, and markets have been debating the path of policy into 2026.
Deribit: the other major catalyst still working through the story
Coinbase’s “Everything Exchange” vision isn’t only about equities and prediction markets—it’s also about derivatives, where the company has been aggressive.
- Reuters reported in 2025 that Coinbase agreed to buy Deribit in a $2.9 billion cash-and-stock deal to expand into crypto options. [17]
- Coinbase later announced the deal closed and positioned it as making Coinbase a more comprehensive global derivatives platform, citing Deribit’s scale (including July 2025 volume and open interest figures). [18]
- Coinbase’s Q3 shareholder letter also stated Deribit closed on August 14 and contributed revenue in Q3, while highlighting very large notional derivatives volumes across the combined business. [19]
For investors, the derivatives push matters because options and futures activity can diversify revenue away from spot-only cycles—though it can also bring additional regulatory complexity.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what the Street is saying now
Deutsche Bank initiates coverage: Buy, $340 target
Deutsche Bank initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $340 price target in mid-December, framing Coinbase as a potential beneficiary of its shift toward a broader onchain platform and “everything exchange” strategy, while also acknowledging the volatility typical of crypto-linked stocks. [20]
Clear Street’s Owen Lau: Buy, $415 target
Clear Street analyst Owen Lau called Coinbase a top fintech idea for 2026 and reiterated a Buy rating with a 12-month price target of $415, pointing to drivers like blockchain adoption, regulatory clarity, and the role of USDC revenue sharing economics. [21]
The consensus view: targets skew well above the current price, but dispersion is wide
One widely followed compiled view shows a “Buy”-leaning consensus with a wide range of targets. For example, StockAnalysis lists:
- Average price target: about $378
- Median target: about $399
- Range: roughly $230 to $510
- Consensus:Buy [22]
This dispersion is typical for COIN because forecasts hinge on variables that are difficult to model precisely—especially crypto prices, volatility, regulatory direction, and how fast new products scale.
What matters most before the next session
Because it’s currently an open U.S. market session in New York, the most practical question is: what can change between now and the next bell—especially with crypto trading 24/7 over the weekend?
Here’s what investors tend to watch most closely for COIN:
1) Weekend crypto moves can “gap” COIN on Monday
Bitcoin and Ether trade continuously, but COIN does not (outside extended hours). A sharp weekend move can lead to a noticeable gap up or down at Monday’s open.
2) Product execution headlines
Coinbase is in a headline-sensitive phase as it expands into equities and event contracts and integrates recent acquisitions. New regulatory approvals, new market rollouts, or partner announcements can quickly shift sentiment. [23]
3) Regulatory tone remains a swing factor
Even after major developments earlier in 2025, traders still respond to signs of stricter or looser oversight around trading products and token listings.
4) Liquidity and year-end positioning
Late December can be distorted by thin volume and portfolio rebalancing. The Associated Press noted extremely light participation around the holiday period and expected trading to remain light as markets reopened. [24]
If you’re reading this after the close: trading hours to know
Coinbase trades on Nasdaq, where regular hours are 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with extended trading sessions available through many brokers (pre-market typically beginning 4:00 a.m. ET and after-hours running to 8:00 p.m. ET). Nasdaq also emphasizes that extended-hours trading can involve higher volatility and lower liquidity. [25]
And for holiday context: Nasdaq’s 2025 schedule listed Christmas Day (Dec. 25) closed and Dec. 24 early close, meaning Dec. 26 is a normal session. [26]
Bottom line
As of early afternoon in New York on Dec. 26, 2025, Coinbase stock is modestly lower in a quiet, post-holiday market, moving alongside a slightly softer crypto tape.
But the bigger story investors are digesting is structural: Coinbase is actively trying to become an “Everything Exchange”—layering in prediction markets, equity trading ambitions, and a growing derivatives footprint—while Wall Street analysts debate how quickly these initiatives can diversify revenues beyond crypto spot cycles. [27]
References
1. apnews.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.investopedia.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.coinbase.com, 6. www.coinbase.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. investor.coinbase.com, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.investing.com, 21. news.futunn.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. apnews.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. www.nasdaqtrader.com, 27. www.coinbase.com
