NEW YORK, Feb 12, 2026, 17:12 EST
- Coinbase reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $667 million, with transaction revenue slipping to roughly $983 million.
- The stock slid roughly 8% in late U.S. hours, with bitcoin steady around $65,800.
- JPMorgan trimmed its price target for Coinbase to $290. Standard Chartered, meanwhile, pulled back its bitcoin forecast for end-2026, now eyeing $100,000.
Shares of Coinbase Global slid roughly 8% to $141 during late U.S. hours on Thursday, following the crypto exchange’s fourth-quarter loss. Bitcoin slipped too, off about 3% to trade near $65,800.
The timing isn’t great: crypto sentiment has soured once more. Standard Chartered just slashed its bitcoin target for end-2026 and flagged the risk of prices dipping to $50,000. Over at Coinbase, a new sell rating landed, with momentum fading out in the price action. 1
Coinbase’s fee revenue usually sees a lift when market volatility picks up, as traders jump in to hedge or pursue price moves. But sentiment has taken a hit lately: since late 2025, spot bitcoin ETFs — which directly hold the cryptocurrency — have seen billions in outflows. 2
Coinbase reported fourth-quarter total revenue of $1.78 billion, dropping from $2.27 billion a year ago as transaction revenue slipped to $983 million. Subscription and services brought in $727 million, with stablecoin revenue climbing to $364 million, driven by higher USDC balances. (Stablecoins are meant to keep their value steady, typically linked to the dollar.) The company logged a net loss of $667 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $566 million, which excludes interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. 3
StockStory noted that analysts were expecting $1.83 billion in revenue. Coinbase wrapped up 2025 holding $11.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and since November, the company has bought back 8.2 million shares. For the first quarter, Coinbase reported roughly $420 million in transaction revenue through Feb. 10, projecting subscription and services revenue between $550 million and $630 million. 4
CEO Brian Armstrong pitched the “Everything Exchange” plan as a way for customers to trade not just crypto but also derivatives, equities, and even prediction markets. CFO Alesia Haas pointed to “all-time highs” in Coinbase’s 2025 product lineup, adding that early in 2026, the platform hit its biggest 24-hour trading volume in over a year. 5
JPMorgan trimmed its price target on Coinbase for December 2026 down to $290 from $399 on Tuesday, maintaining an overweight call. Analyst Kenneth Worthington flagged that his model for “SS&O” — subscription, services and other revenue — lands below Coinbase’s guidance: “we model revenue below the guide at $670mn,” he said, pointing to weaker crypto prices along with sluggish USDC growth and reserve rates. 6
Monness, Crespi, Hardt cut its rating on Coinbase to sell Thursday, describing optimism for a smooth comeback by 2026 as “foolish and facile” in light of previous crypto downturns. The group doesn’t see weakness letting up until at least mid-2026, though it maintains a positive stance on the long-range outlook for stablecoins and tokenized assets. 7
Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered isn’t mincing words on crypto’s wild swings, calling the recent moves “challenging, to say the least.” He flagged the risk of “further price capitulation” over the coming months. Kendrick has now trimmed his end-2026 bitcoin target down to $100,000, after previously seeing $150,000. He sees room for bitcoin to fall to $50,000, maybe a shade lower, before any rebound later this year. Ether didn’t escape the downgrade either—Kendrick dropped his end-2026 view to $4,000, slashed from $7,500. 8
JPMorgan analysts are pointing to rising competition, describing global crypto spot trading as “highly fragmented” and cautioning that smaller exchanges might start eroding Coinbase’s market share. Over the last year, OKX and Kraken have both shown signs they’re eyeing a U.S. listing, while Gemini landed on Nasdaq back in September, according to Decrypt. 9
Still, cycles flip quickly. Volatility coming back — or bitcoin making an unexpected jump — usually drives up trading volumes. On the flip side, when interest rates drop, stablecoin revenue can take a hit since it depends on yields from reserves.
Coinbase reports earnings after the bell Thursday, with investors tuned in for signals on retail flows, institutional interest, and how quickly the platform’s rolling out new products. Sentiment in the crypto space right now? Defensive.
