Meta description: Comcast stock (CMCSA) is trading in the high‑$20s as the company moves ahead with its Versant Media Group spin‑off, digests mixed broadband trends, and faces sharply divided analyst opinions. Here’s the full picture as of December 5, 2025.
Comcast stock on 5 December 2025: where things stand
As of mid‑session on Friday, December 5, 2025, Comcast Corporation Class A shares (Nasdaq: CMCSA) were trading around $27.81, up roughly 2.2% on the day. The stock has moved off its recent 52‑week low near $25.75 but remains far below a one‑year high around $43.30. [1]
Over the past year, Comcast shares have underperformed the broader U.S. market: one recent fundamental snapshot estimates CMCSA is down about 13% over 12 months, versus a roughly 13% gain for the S&P 500, widening the performance gap between value‑heavy telecom/media names and growth‑led tech indices. [2]
Friday’s move is happening against a supportive backdrop for equities more broadly: U.S. stock indices ticked higher ahead of key inflation data, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all trading close to record levels as investors position for potential Fed rate cuts. [3]
On valuation, multiple data providers still show compressed multiples for Comcast: a forward P/E around 8–9x and an EV/sales ratio near 1.8x, both materially below the broader market, while free‑cash‑flow (FCF) yield is estimated above 10%. [4]
Versant Media Group spin-off: the biggest near‑term catalyst
The most important new development for Comcast shareholders this week is the formal approval of the Versant Media Group, Inc. spin‑off.
Comcast’s board has now approved the previously announced separation of a large portfolio of cable networks and related digital brands into a new, independent, publicly traded company called Versant Media Group. [5]
Key details from the company’s press release and subsequent coverage:
- What’s being spun out: Most of NBCUniversal’s cable networks – including USA Network, CNBC, MS NOW (formerly MSNBC), Oxygen, E!, SYFY and Golf Channel – plus digital properties like Fandango, Rotten Tomatoes, GolfNow, GolfPass and SportsEngine. [6]
- Distribution ratio: Comcast shareholders will receive 1 share of Versant common stock for every 25 Comcast shares (Class A or B) they hold. [7]
- Key dates:
- Record date: December 16, 2025
- When‑issued trading: Versant is expected to begin trading on a “when‑issued” basis under ticker VSNTV around December 15, 2025 [8]
- Distribution date: Spin‑off shares are expected to be distributed after the close of trading on January 2, 2026 [9]
- Regular‑way trading: Versant common stock should begin regular trading under ticker VSNT on January 5, 2026 [10]
- Trading of Comcast around the spin: Between roughly December 15 and the distribution date, Comcast will trade in two lines:
- the normal CMCSA line, which includes the right to receive Versant shares, and
- an “ex‑distribution” line (listed as CMCSV) that does not carry Versant rights. [11]
A detailed valuation analysis from Barron’s estimates Versant could start trading at about $70 per share, implying a market capitalization near $10 billion based on roughly 144 million Versant shares. That article cites management projections for $6.6 billion in 2025 revenue, $2.2 billion of EBITDA and $1.4 billion in free cash flow, implying a FCF yield north of 10% at that valuation. Versant is expected to assume about $3 billion of debt and pay $2.25 billion in cash back to Comcast, while remaining majority‑controlled via Comcast CEO Brian Roberts’ super‑voting shares. [12]
Why this matters for Comcast stock
The spin‑off effectively carves out a slower‑growth, cable‑heavy asset mix from Comcast, leaving the parent more focused on:
- broadband and wireless connectivity (Xfinity, Comcast Business, Sky), and
- high‑growth, IP‑driven assets (theme parks, Peacock streaming, film and TV studios). [13]
For shareholders, the working theory is that:
- Versant might trade as a high‑yield, cash‑rich but structurally challenged “legacy media” vehicle, and
- Comcast could see its valuation re‑rate closer to a pure‑play connectivity + premium content story, rather than a sprawling conglomerate.
The flip side, which Comcast itself flags in its risk disclosures, is that spin‑offs don’t always unlock value: combined equity value could end up lower than a unified Comcast, the deal may not stay tax‑free for all investors, and execution risk – from listing mechanics to debt loads and advertising trends – is very real. [14]
Earnings picture: solid beats, but broadband is under pressure
Q3 2025: theme parks and studios shine
Comcast’s most recent results, for the quarter ended September 2025, showed better‑than‑expected revenue and profit, but also underlined its broadband challenge.
Highlights from the Q3 release and commentary:
- Revenue: About $31.2 billion, ahead of consensus near $30.7 billion. [15]
- Adjusted EPS:$1.12, slightly beating forecasts of $1.10. [16]
- Theme parks: Revenue jumped nearly 19% year‑on‑year, boosted by attractions tied to Epic Universe and strong demand across Universal parks. [17]
- Studios: Film revenue rose roughly 6% to around $3 billion, helped by the global box‑office performance of “Jurassic World: Rebirth”, which has generated close to $900 million worldwide. [18]
- Streaming (Peacock): Paid subscribers held at about 41 million despite a price increase, while quarterly losses were roughly halved, shrinking to around $217 million from over $430 million a year earlier. [19]
- Broadband: Comcast lost 104,000 broadband subscribers, better than estimates for a much steeper decline (around 143,000). [20]
- Wireless: The company added a record 414,000 wireless subscribers, underscoring how mobile is becoming a more important growth engine. [21]
On the Q3 call, newly appointed co‑CEO Mike Cavanagh warned that the competitive broadband environment – particularly from fixed wireless players like T‑Mobile and Verizon – is not expected to ease soon. Comcast expects broadband average revenue per user (ARPU) to stay under pressure into early 2026 as it migrates customers onto simpler, rate‑locked plans without the usual annual price hikes. [22]
Q2 2025: Epic Universe, Peacock and fixed wireless
Earlier in the year, Comcast also beat expectations in Q2 2025, again powered by theme parks and streaming:
- Revenue reached about $30.3 billion, ahead of expectations near $29.8 billion.
- Adjusted EPS came in around $1.25, beating analyst forecasts of roughly $1.18. [23]
- The May opening of the Epic Universe theme park in Central Florida helped drive a roughly 19% jump in park revenue to about $2.35 billion, even though the park was open for only part of the quarter. [24]
- Peacock’s revenue surged roughly 18% to more than $1.2 billion, supported by price increases and shows like “Love Island USA.” [25]
- The company lost about 226,000 broadband customers but added 378,000 wireless subscribers, while promoting all‑inclusive packages and multi‑year price locks to slow churn. [26]
Taken together, 2024 and 2025 so far show steady but not spectacular top‑line growth: one fundamental review pegs 2024 revenue at about $123.7 billion, up roughly 2%, while noting that Comcast’s current growth pace is around 2.6%, well below the market’s ~8% average. [27]
Earnings forecasts into 2026: flat growth meets downward revisions
Zacks’ latest “Most‑Watched Stock” and “Bear of the Day” pieces on Comcast highlight a tension that runs through most of Wall Street’s models: the stock screens as cheap on current earnings, but estimates are drifting down. [28]
Key points from those reports:
- For Q4 2025, Comcast is expected to earn about $0.76 per share, a 20.8% decline year‑over‑year, and that estimate has been cut roughly 6.8% over the past 30 days. [29]
- For the current full fiscal year, the Zacks consensus EPS forecast is around $4.21, implying about 2.8% EPS contraction vs. the prior year, with estimates down roughly 1.6% over the past month. [30]
- On the back of those downward revisions, Comcast currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), despite scoring well on pure valuation metrics. [31]
A separate analysis syndicated via Nasdaq and Fintel shows slightly more optimistic longer‑term numbers, projecting annual revenue of about $127.1 billion (up ~3.1%) and non‑GAAP EPS near $4.56, based on Street models. [32]
Third‑party calendars now cluster Comcast’s next earnings report in late January 2026, with various services pointing to dates between January 21 and January 29; many list January 29, 2026 as the expected Q4 2025 release, though estimates differ and the company has not yet confirmed an exact date on its public IR calendar. [33]
Wall Street’s view: cheap stock, split opinions
Despite (or because of) the sluggish earnings outlook, analyst price targets remain materially above today’s price.
Consensus targets and ratings
- MarketBeat aggregates 34 analysts with an average 12‑month price target around $35.82, implying roughly 29% upside from a recent price near $27.85. The target range stretches from about $28 on the low end to $53 on the high end, and the consensus rating sits in “Hold” territory. [34]
- A Fintel‑linked summary of broker research, syndicated on Nasdaq, cites an even higher average one‑year target of about $37.07, implying close to 39% upside from a prior close around $26.69. [35]
- Another forecast aggregator, Stocksguide, reports an average target of roughly $35.70, about 31% above the current share price, based on 31 analysts: 16 Buy, 23 Hold, 1 Sell. [36]
- TipRanks similarly classifies Comcast as a “Moderate Buy”, with about 34–35% upside to its average target, based on a mix of buy, hold and one sell rating. [37]
In short: most brokers see upside into the mid‑$30s, but very few are pounding the table with “Strong Buy” calls, and the ratings distribution is weighted toward Hold.
Deep‑value takes: DCF and relative valuation
On the more aggressive end of the value spectrum:
- A detailed discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis from Simply Wall St estimates an intrinsic value near $74.52 per share, arguing that Comcast trades at roughly a 63.5% discount to that fair value based on projected free cash flows that stay in the mid‑teens of billions of dollars annually through the 2030s. [38]
- The same analysis points out that Comcast’s trailing P/E is around 4.4x, compared with a ~15x average for the broader media industry and ~23x for a selected peer group, and suggests a more “fair” P/E closer to 15x given its profitability and outlook. [39]
Finimize, in a broader fundamentals snapshot, reaches a similar conclusion via different metrics:
- Free‑cash‑flow yield around 10.4%, versus a market average near 2.1%.
- Operating margin around 18%, slightly above Comcast’s own five‑year average and roughly in line with the wider market.
- Return on invested capital (ROIC) near 11.9%, also broadly in line with market averages.
- Net debt/EBITDA of about 2.2x, higher than the market’s ~1.3x average and a key risk if rates stay elevated. [40]
Finimize’s conclusion: Comcast looks like a high‑quality cash generator trading at “clearance” prices, but with a conglomerate discount tied to slow growth and a complicated business mix. [41]
Dividend profile: income cushion at nearly 5%
For income‑oriented investors, Comcast’s dividend is a crucial part of the story.
A fresh MarketBeat filing summary notes that Comcast recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.33 per share, or $1.32 annually, which works out to a dividend yield of roughly 4.9% at current prices and a payout ratio around 22% of earnings. [42]
That relatively low payout ratio, combined with double‑digit FCF yield, suggests room for continued dividends and buybacks, assuming earnings don’t fall sharply from here. [43]
Institutional sentiment: big long-term money is active
December 5 filings highlight both large long‑only interest and portfolio trimming around CMCSA:
- Value‑oriented manager Dodge & Cox increased its Comcast stake by 18.1% in Q2, to about 111.3 million shares, making Comcast roughly 2.2% of its portfolio and its 11th‑largest holding. The position, worth just under $4.0 billion, equates to about 3.0% of Comcast’s shares outstanding. [44]
- CW Advisors LLC lifted its holdings by 56.5% in the same quarter, to about 209,871 shares worth roughly $7.5 million. [45]
- On the other side, 1832 Asset Management L.P. reduced its Comcast position by 20.8%, ending Q2 with about 433,042 shares valued around $15.5 million. [46]
Separate stock‑data summaries show Comcast has a market cap just under $100 billion, with institutions owning roughly 89% of the float, insiders about 0.7%, and short interest around 1.3% of shares outstanding – more a sign of modest hedging than a major bearish pile‑on. [47]
The overall picture: large, fundamentally minded investors are still active on both sides, but there is no clear sign of a “run for the exits.”
Strategic moves beyond Versant: broadband expansion and social license
Alongside the spin‑off, Comcast continues to invest in network expansion and digital‑inclusion initiatives that could matter for long‑term growth, regulation and brand perception.
Recent examples:
- In November, Comcast committed $2.5 million in grants to nonprofits Lead for America and Partners for Rural Impact, funding 24+ digital navigator roles across rural communities in nine U.S. states as part of its Project UP initiative – a $1 billion program aimed at digital equity. [48]
- Company press releases in late November and early December highlight the rollout of high‑speed Xfinity internet to thousands of additional homes and businesses in places like Okeechobee County, Florida and several communities in Ohio and Pennsylvania, extending Comcast’s network reach to more than 5.2 million rural households across 952 U.S. counties. [49]
On the content and packaging side, Comcast has launched a “World Soccer Ticket” premium sports package, bundling global football competitions and major U.S. leagues in a single Xfinity offering, partly to capitalize on the 2026 FIFA World Cup and deepen the sports‑centric value proposition for pay‑TV and streaming. [50]
These moves don’t instantly change the earnings trajectory, but they reinforce Comcast’s dual strategy:
- Defend and expand its connectivity footprint, including in underserved rural areas; and
- Use sports and premium content to keep customers inside its ecosystem and strengthen its case with regulators and policymakers.
M&A backdrop: Warner Bros. is not coming to Comcast – and that matters
For months, Comcast was widely reported as a potential buyer for parts of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), alongside Netflix and Paramount’s Skydance vehicle. [51]
That saga reached a turning point on December 5:
- Netflix has agreed to buy Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming operations in a deal valued at about $83 billion, leaving WBD’s cable networks to be spun into a separate entity. [52]
- Investopedia’s live coverage notes that competing bidders, including Comcast, appear to be “out of the running” following Netflix’s winning offer and the companies’ entry into exclusive talks. [53]
For Comcast shareholders, this has two implications:
- Lower immediate M&A risk: Investors worried about a massive, highly leveraged media acquisition can, for now, cross that scenario off the near‑term list.
- Less optionality on premium IP: At the same time, Comcast misses out on WBD’s deep library – from HBO to DC – which could have further strengthened NBCUniversal’s studio and streaming offerings.
On its Q3 call and in interviews, Comcast management has stressed that the bar for major M&A is high, even as the company continues to evaluate opportunities “in its space.” [54]
The bull case: cash machine at a discount
Supporters of Comcast stock – including several value‑oriented commentators and research shops – tend to circle around a few recurring points. These are arguments, not certainties:
- Strong and diversified cash generation
Theme parks, broadband, and wireless all throw off robust cash, while Peacock’s losses are shrinking and film/TV libraries provide recurring revenue. Q2 and Q3 both featured revenue and EPS beats, with theme parks delivering high‑teens revenue growth and Peacock posting double‑digit sales growth and narrowing losses. [55] - High free‑cash‑flow yield and low payout ratio
With a FCF yield above 10% and a dividend payout ratio near 22%, Comcast can theoretically fund dividends, buybacks and selective investment without stretching its balance sheet – assuming the current earnings and cash‑flow profile holds. [56] - Valuation gap versus peers and DCF estimates
Comcast trades at 4–9x earnings depending on whether you look at trailing or forward numbers, far below many media/telecom peers and the wider S&P 500. Both Simply Wall St’s DCF model and Finimize’s relative‑valuation snapshot suggest the stock could re‑rate significantly higher if fears about structural decline prove overdone. [57] - Spin‑off catalyst via Versant
The Versant transaction may surface hidden value by separating relatively slow‑growth cable networks (but with high FCF) from the rest of the group. Versant itself is projected to have mid‑teens FCF margins and a >10% FCF yield at the estimated $10 billion valuation, while Comcast receives a $2.25 billion cash payment and a cleaner story. [58] - Wireless and parks as growth vectors
Record wireless net additions (378k in Q2, 414k in Q3) and the ramp‑up of Epic Universe offer visible growth drivers that are less exposed to cord‑cutting. [59]
Several recent opinion pieces – including Finimize’s “Comcast Trades At A Discount As Investors Wait For Change” and multiple Seeking Alpha write‑ups – frame Comcast as a “cash‑generating machine” trading at a discount that could reward patient investors if management executes on simplification and capital returns. [60]
The bear case: broadband, growth and execution risk
Skeptics – notably Zacks in its “Bear of the Day” feature – argue that the discount is earned, not a free lunch. Their main concerns include: [61]
- Broadband and video subscriber losses
Legacy cable TV is shrinking fast, and broadband, long Comcast’s profit engine, is now seeing consistent net losses as fiber rivals and fixed wireless nibble at its base. Q2 and Q3 broadband declines (‑226k and ‑104k respectively) are better than feared but still negative, and management itself expects ARPU pressure into 2026. [62] - Soft earnings trajectory and negative revisions
With Q4 EPS expected to fall about 21% year‑on‑year and full‑year 2025 EPS projected to slip ~3%, Zacks argues that the earnings trend doesn’t yet justify a re‑rating, especially given recent estimate cuts. [63] - Leverage and interest‑rate sensitivity
Net debt/EBITDA near 2.2x is manageable but higher than many peers, leaving Comcast more exposed if margins compress or rates remain elevated longer than expected. [64] - Conglomerate complexity & “permanent discount” risk
Comcast still spans consumer broadband, mobile, pay‑TV, streaming, film, broadcast networks, cable channels, theme parks and European operations via Sky. Bears worry the market may keep applying a “conglomerate discount” even after the Versant spin‑off, particularly if new spin‑offs or restructurings create fresh uncertainty. [65] - Execution risk on Versant and other strategic moves
Spin‑offs can misfire: advertising markets may remain weak, linear cable declines could accelerate, and Versant’s debt load and lack of an immediate dividend could weigh on its valuation. Any stumble there would reflect back on Comcast’s equity story. [66] - Streaming wars and media fragmentation
Peacock is improving but still unprofitable, and the streaming landscape remains intensely competitive. Comcast missed out on WBD’s studio assets; meanwhile, Netflix’s mega‑deal deepens its own moat, potentially raising the bar for everyone else. [67]
Zacks sums up the tension as “strong value, weak revisions” – a stock that looks inexpensive on today’s numbers but carries real risk that those numbers trend lower. [68]
What to watch next
For investors tracking Comcast stock from here, the key signposts over the next few months are:
- Versant spin-off milestones
- December 15, 2025: expected start of Versant “when‑issued” trading (VSNTV)
- December 16, 2025: record date for the distribution
- January 2, 2026: expected distribution date
- January 5, 2026: first day of regular‑way Versant trading (VSNT) [69]
- Q4 2025 earnings (late January 2026, date to be confirmed)
Markets will focus heavily on broadband churn, wireless growth, Peacock profitability, and early 2026 guidance – especially any comments about capex, buybacks, and post‑Versant capital allocation. [70] - Macro backdrop and rates
Fed policy remains a major swing factor for all high‑yield, cash‑flow‑rich stocks. December’s PCE inflation data and the Fed’s final 2025 decision are central to how investors price Comcast’s equity risk premium and dividend yield relative to bonds. [71]
Bottom line: value vs. change
As of December 5, 2025, Comcast sits at the crossroads of two stories:
- One is the classic value narrative: a cash‑rich, dominant connectivity and content provider trading at low‑single‑digit earnings multiples, with a near‑5% dividend yield and a major spin‑off that could simplify the corporate structure. [72]
- The other is a slow‑growth, structurally challenged incumbent facing broadband competition, cord‑cutting, and the uncertainties of spinning out Versant while navigating an industry reshaped by deals like Netflix’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming assets. [73]
Which story dominates over the next few years will depend less on any single quarter, and more on whether Comcast can stabilize broadband, grow wireless, keep Peacock on a path toward profitability, and execute cleanly on the Versant separation.
References
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