Sydney, Jan 30, 2026, 16:48 AEDT — Market closed.
- CBA shares ended the day 0.47% higher, closing at A$149.36
- Following hotter core inflation data, rate markets now assign increased odds to an RBA hike on Feb. 3
- CBA will release its half-year results on Feb. 11, with attention on margins and bad debts
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX) shares closed Friday 0.47% higher, finishing at A$149.36—up 70 cents from the prior session. Trading ranged from A$148.33 to A$150.10, still far off its 52-week peak of A$192. 1
The shift was minor, yet it comes during a hectic period for bank traders. The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to meet next week, with CBA due to report in mid-February.
Rate expectations are driving the market. Australia’s trimmed-mean consumer price index — which excludes volatile items — climbed 0.9% in the December quarter, pushing the annual rate to 3.4%, Reuters reported. That keeps inflation above the RBA’s target range of 2%–3%. Swaps now price in a 73% chance of a 25 basis-point hike on Feb. 3. ANZ and Westpac, following CBA and NAB, have called for a rate increase. “We think the RBA will conclude that demand is running ahead of supply,” said Adam Boyton, head of Australian Economics at ANZ. EY chief economist Cherelle Murphy added, “the case for tighter monetary policy is clear.” 2
A dissenting voice remains. Goldman Sachs chief economist Andrew Boak described the +0.9% trimmed-mean figure as “not … a large enough upside surprise” to justify a hike, labeling February “a very close call.” 3
Banks know the drill. When policy rates climb, the “net interest margin”—the difference between loan earnings and funding expenses—typically widens. But funding costs increase alongside, and households feel the squeeze almost immediately.
CBA’s valuation adds another layer to the picture. According to a MarketScreener roundup, 14 analysts rate it a “sell” on average, with a price target hovering around A$121.84. 4
Investors often see CBA as a stand-in for mortgage pricing and deposit rivalry. Even minor changes in these areas can impact earnings sharply, and the market wastes no time penalizing any signs of margin pressure.
The risks run both ways. Should the RBA stay put and turn dovish, markets might have to dial back on the rate hike expectations, putting pressure on bank shares. But a surprise hike could fuel worries over mortgage strain and credit quality right as earnings season kicks off.
CBA has set a firm deadline. The bank plans to report its half-year results for the period ending Dec. 31 on Feb. 11. 5
Rate talk continues to fuel intraday swings as the next session kicks off. The spotlight this week falls on the RBA decision on Feb. 3, followed by CBA’s results on Feb. 11. Traders will zero in on the margin line, bad-debt charges, and any hints about the interim dividend.
