Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) Share Price Today: ACCC Penalty, RBA Hawkish Turn and 2026 Stock Forecasts

On 10 December 2025, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) – Australia’s largest lender and one of the world’s most expensive major banks – is trading in the mid‑A$150s, slightly weaker on the day and sitting almost 20% below its 2025 peak. ^[1]

Fresh regulatory action from the ACCC, a hawkish shift from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and new capital rules from APRA have all landed in the past week, just as analysts reassess how much investors should be willing to pay for CBA’s premium franchise.

CBA share price snapshot on 10 December 2025

Real‑time quotes differ slightly by platform, but intraday data show:

Last trade: around A$153–154 per share
Previous close: A$154.53
Intraday range: roughly A$153.2–154.9
52‑week range:A$140.21 (low) to about A$192.00 (high) ^[2]

That leaves CBA:

Down about 0.5–0.7% on the day, in line with broader financials weakness on the ASX. ^[3]
Around 19–20% below its 52‑week high near A$192. ^[4]
Roughly flat for the calendar year 2025 (up about 1–1.5% from the start of the year), but down ~15.6% in the current financial year (FY26), having started that period above A$184. ^[5]

The steepest leg of the recent sell‑off came in November, when CBA’s September‑quarter trading update delivered only a marginal profit rise while highlighting margin pressure and competition – the stock dropped more than 6% in a single session and slid from the mid‑A$170s to the low‑A$160s. ^[6]

What just happened: ACCC penalty and regulatory overhang

ACCC Consumer Data Right penalty

On 9 December 2025, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) announced that CBA has paid penalties totalling A$792,000 for alleged breaches of the Consumer Data Right (CDR) Rules. ^[7]

Key points from the ACCC release:

CBA allegedly failed to enable data sharing for certain business and partnership accounts, meaning those customers couldn’t use CDR‑enabled services such as cloud‑based accounting tools.
The penalty – four infringement notices – is the largest CDR penalty to date.
CBA has co‑operated and agreed to:
- Fix remaining data‑sharing gaps by 19 December 2025
- Run a remediation program from January 2026, including goodwill payments and compensation for proven financial or non‑financial loss. ^[8]

Financially, A$792,000 is small next to a bank earning more than A$10 billion a year. Reputationally, it reinforces the theme that digital and data compliance risk is becoming a permanent feature of the CBA investment case.

APRA phases out AT1 hybrid capital

In early December, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) finalised its framework to phase out Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital instruments – the hybrid securities that sit between equity and debt in bank capital stacks. ^[9]

The framework:

Takes effect on 1 January 2027
Gradually phases out all AT1 by 2032
Recalibrates capital around Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) and Total Capital instead of Tier 1
Sets a leverage ratio of 3.25% of CET1, slightly lower than an earlier 3.5% proposal to avoid de‑facto tightening. ^[10]

For CBA, which runs a CET1 ratio north of 12%, analysts and APRA both see the change as manageable but not irrelevant: it nudges banks toward somewhat higher pure equity buffers and may slightly constrain how aggressively capital can be returned via buy‑backs and special dividends if earnings growth slows. TechStock²+1

Macro backdrop: RBA turns hawkish again

On 9 December 2025, the RBA:

Kept the cash rate at 3.60% for a third straight meeting
Explicitly said inflation risks have “tilted to the upside”
Flagged that the next move could be up, not down, if price pressures stay sticky. ^[11]

Inflation has re‑accelerated to around 3.8% on the monthly CPI, and three‑year bond yields jumped after Governor Michele Bullock signalled no rate cuts are “on the horizon for the foreseeable future”. Markets now price in roughly two quarter‑point hikes in 2026. ^[12]

CBA’s own economists, in their “CommBank View” report from October, had been projecting one final RBA rate cut in early 2026, with the economy “at a crossroads”: growth improving to around 2.2% by end‑2026, but inflation and employment data creating a fine balance for further easing. ^[13]

Put together, the macro picture for CBA is a bit of a paradox:

Lower rates earlier in 2025 helped borrowers and asset prices, but squeezed bank margins. ^[14]
Now, a more hawkish RBA may support margins eventually, but it raises longer‑term credit risk if unemployment rises or household budgets crack.

Fundamentals: record profits, steady growth, premium multiples

Despite the recent share‑price wobble, CBA’s underlying business remains very profitable.

Earnings and revenue

For the year to 30 June 2025, CBA generated A$27.56 billion in revenue, up 5.53% year‑on‑year. ^[15]
Earlier in 2025, the bank reported 2% growth in first‑half profit as pressure on consumers began to ease. ^[16]
At its October AGM, investors were reminded that CBA had delivered record full‑year cash earnings of A$10.25 billion and a record dividend payout for the last financial year, with net interest margin rising to 2.08%. ^[17]

Revenue growth is neither spectacular nor dire – think low‑to‑mid single digit – but the bank’s return on equity remains high by global standards, which is part of why investors have historically paid up for the stock. ^[18]

Dividends and yield

CBA continues to position itself as a dividend mainstay for Australian portfolios:

Interim dividend (Feb 2025): A$2.25 per share
Final dividend (Aug 2025): A$2.60 per share ^[19]

That’s A$4.85 per share over the past year. At a share price around A$154–155, that equates to a cash dividend yield of roughly 3.1%, before accounting for franking credits – which lift the effective yield for many Australian investors. ^[20]

Valuation: still expensive, just less extreme

Even after the recent de‑rating, CBA is far from cheap on traditional metrics.

Recent figures collated from Reuters, TS2.tech and other data providers suggest: ^[21]

Earnings per share (trailing 12m): ~A$6.05
Dividends per share (trailing 12m): A$4.85
Share price: mid‑A$150s
Trailing P/E: roughly 25–27×
Price‑to‑book: about 3.3–3.4×
Price‑to‑sales: around 9.4×
Market cap: ~A$258 billion

At the October AGM, Reuters noted that CBA was trading on a P/E of 27.2× and a forward P/B of 3.37×, higher than all of its Australian rivals and even above many global giants such as JPMorgan, Citigroup and HSBC. ^[22]

This is the core of the current debate: CBA the bank looks very strong; CBA the stock still carries a valuation premium that may or may not be sustainable if growth is only modest.

What analysts and models are forecasting for CBA shares

Consensus 12‑month price targets: modest downside

Several data aggregators show analysts expecting lower prices than today:

Investing.com’s consensus suggests around 20–22% downside from current levels based on the average 12‑month target price for ASX:CBA. ^[23]
TipRanks and TradingView report average targets clustered around A$120–125, with the lowest estimates just below A$100 and the highest in the mid‑A$140s – again implying double‑digit downside from the mid‑A$150s. ^[24]

For the US‑listed ADR (ticker CMWAY), MarketBeat shows a mean target equivalent to notable upside from current ADR prices, but that reflects FX, the ADR ratio and a very small analyst sample. ^[25]

A recent synthesis of broker research published by TS2.tech notes that several global investment banks see limited upside or outright downside, arguing that much of CBA’s multi‑year share‑price strength has been driven by multiple expansion rather than explosive earnings growth. TechStock²

Technical outlook: gentle downtrend

Short‑term, quantitative technical models are also cautious rather than bullish:

StockInvest.us recently upgraded CBA from “Sell” to “Hold/Accumulate” after the 9 December close at A$154.53.
Their model:
- Sees CBA trading in the middle of a “wide and falling” short‑term trend
- Projects an ~8.4% decline over the next three months, with a 90% probability of finishing that period somewhere between A$135 and A$158
- Flags support around A$153.22 and resistance near A$158.38 in the near term. ^[26]

This kind of forecast is mechanical, not clairvoyant, but it does capture the market’s recent behaviour: gentle downward drift with bouts of volatility, rather than either a collapse or a clear V‑shaped recovery.

Longer‑term scenarios: multiple compression vs quality premium

Pulling together TS2.tech’s summary of broker models and local commentary: TechStock²

Base‑case expectations for CBA assume:
- Low‑to‑mid single‑digit annual EPS growth out to around 2030, driven by modest loan growth and a mostly stable net interest margin
- Gradual dividend growth, with the payout ratio staying high but not increasing much further under APRA’s capital framework
More bearish commentators warn that if CBA’s P/E were to normalise towards 15–18× (closer to global bank averages), the share price could fall 25–35% from its peak, even without a major earnings shock.

In other words, the key long‑term question isn’t whether CBA can stay profitable – few doubt that – but what valuation investors are willing to pay for those earnings in a more normalised rate and credit environment.

Key upside drivers for CBA stock

Across CBA’s own research, broker notes and independent analysis, the main structural positives look like this: ^[27]

Dominant franchise
CBA is the leading retail bank in Australia, with a huge deposit base, large mortgage book and strong fee businesses. This scale underpins high returns on equity and resilience in downturns.
Robust capital and asset quality
A high CET1 ratio, low arrears and substantial provisioning buffers give management flexibility on dividends and buy‑backs, even as APRA tightens the quality of required capital.
Technology and AI investment
CBA continues to position itself as a technology‑led bank, leaning into digital channels and AI to lower cost‑to‑serve and deepen customer engagement. Recent commentary in TS2.tech and other outlets highlights this as a key medium‑term differentiator. TechStock²+1
Defensive, fully‑franked income
In a world of macro jitters, a 3%+ cash yield, fully franked, from a systemically important bank remains attractive for many income‑seeking investors, particularly self‑managed super funds.

Main risks and pressure points

Against that, the current news flow also underlines several risks: Reuters+4TechStock²+4Reuters+4

Valuation compression
At mid‑20s P/E and >3× P/B, CBA is highly exposed to any sentiment shift away from “expensive defensives”. If investors rotate into cheaper sectors, CBA could lag even if earnings hold up.
Margin pressure
A lower‑for‑longer cash rate earlier in the year, intense competition for deposits and mortgages, and regulatory constraints have already squeezed net interest margins. The RBA’s latest hawkish turn helps sentiment, but the transmission to bank margins is neither instant nor guaranteed.
Regulatory and conduct risk
The A$792,000 CDR penalty is small financially, but it comes on top of years of intense scrutiny of bank conduct. APRA’s AT1 reforms and ongoing consumer‑protection enforcement add to compliance costs and may limit aggressive capital returns.
Macro and household leverage
Australian households remain among the most indebted in the world relative to income. If unemployment ticks up while rates stay at or above current levels, loan arrears could rise from today’s very low base, pressuring provisions and potentially earnings.

So, is CBA stock a buy after a 19% slide?

Investor‑focused outlets on 10 December – from Motley Fool Australia, which notes the share price has dropped 19% since June 2025, to Rask Media, which is re‑running valuation exercises at roughly A$155 per share – are all circling the same question: has the pull‑back turned CBA back into value, or just taken some froth off an expensive stock? ^[28]

The emerging consensus from broker research and recent meta‑analysis (including TS2.tech’s 9 December deep‑dive) is roughly: TechStock²+2StockAnalysis+2

Quality: very high – franchise strength, capital, asset quality and technology strategy are all strong.
Valuation: still rich – even after the de‑rating, CBA trades at premium multiples that assume its advantages persist and that Australia avoids a nasty downturn.
Rating bias: “Hold if you own it” – many analysts see limited upside at current prices but also no urgent reason to sell for long‑term, income‑focused holders. New money, in their view, may find better risk‑reward in cheaper peers like Westpac or NAB.

This article can’t tell you what to do with your own portfolio – it’s general information, not personal financial advice. But as of 10 December 2025, the CBA story in markets looks something like this:

Rock‑solid bank, wobbly multiple.
Operationally strong, regulatorily nagged, macro‑sensitive, and priced like a high‑quality bond proxy with growth options rather than a plain‑vanilla cyclical bank.