Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) Stock: ACCC Penalty, AI Push and 2026 Forecasts

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the ASX’s banking heavyweight, is closing out 2025 in a complicated spot: profits are near record highs, the balance sheet is strong, but the share price has been knocked off its peak and regulators are knocking on the door.

Below is a full rundown of the latest news, forecasts and analyst views on CBA shares as at 9 December 2025.

CBA share price snapshot: still expensive after a sharp de‑rating

On 9 December 2025, CBA shares were trading in the mid‑A$150s, giving the bank a market capitalisation of roughly A$260 billion. Live pricing data from StockLight shows a last trade around A$154.5, a 52‑week range of A$138.08–189.08, and a trailing price/earnings ratio (P/E) of about 25.7. ^[1]

That same data set and recent broker analytics put CBA’s valuation profile roughly as follows: ^[2]

P/E: ~25–26× trailing earnings
Price-to-book: ~3.3×, versus an industry average around 1.8×
Dividend yield (cash): ~3.1–3.2% fully franked
Price-to-sales: materially higher than the diversified banks’ average

In other words, even after a pullback, CBA still trades at a steep premium to both domestic peers and global banks.

Performance-wise, 2025 has been a tale of two phases. The share price rallied toward A$170–180 earlier in the year, then fell about 11% in November alone, from around A$171.64 to A$152.51, as investors rotated out of “expensive defensives” and into cheaper banks and resource stocks. ^[3]

Motley Fool and other commentators have highlighted that, despite the recent slump, CBA is still well above late‑2024 levels, when the stock was closer to A$120–130, and remains one of the priciest large banks in the world on standard valuation metrics. TechStock²+1

Fresh headline: ACCC penalty over data-sharing breaches

The biggest new development on 9 December 2025 is regulatory, not financial.

Australia’s competition watchdog, the ACCC, has announced that Commonwealth Bank has paid penalties totalling A$792,000 after receiving four infringement notices for alleged breaches of the Consumer Data Right (CDR) Rules. ^[4]

Key points from the ACCC’s media release and CBA’s own newsroom statement: ^[5]

The ACCC alleges CBA failed to enable data sharing for certain business and partnership accounts (where customer profiles were set up with a Trading Entity Business Name).
As a result, some affected business customers could not use CDR‑enabled services (such as accounting integrations) and had to rely on manual workarounds or less secure data‑sharing methods.
The ACCC describes this as the highest total penalty to date for an alleged breach of the CDR rules and frames it as a warning to all data holders.
CBA says it identified and voluntarily reported the issue, cooperated with the investigation, and has entered an Administrative Resolution with the ACCC.
The bank will enable remaining accounts for data sharing by 19 December 2025 and run a remediation program starting the week of 19 January 2026, including goodwill payments and compensation for customers who can substantiate additional losses.

For shareholders, the dollar amount is immaterial relative to CBA’s annual profits, but the episode reinforces two themes that matter for valuation: ongoing regulatory scrutiny and the operational complexity of data and technology compliance.

Strategic news: AI push and OpenAI collaboration

Alongside regulatory noise, CBA is leaning hard into technology.

On 5 December 2025, the bank announced a national AI, cybersecurity and digital capability initiative aimed at supporting 1 million small businesses. ^[6]

According to CBA’s media release:

The bank will fund business masterclasses on AI, cybersecurity and digital capability.
It will co‑develop AI learning resources and masterclasses with OpenAI, covering topics like AI fundamentals, productivity, automation and responsible use.
The goal is to give time‑poor small business owners practical tools to use AI (for tasks like planning, customer insights and invoicing) while also raising cybersecurity standards.

This initiative sits alongside CBA’s earlier rollout of ChatGPT Enterprise internally and the appointment of a Chief AI Officer from early 2026. ^[7]

Strategically, this feeds into the long‑term bullish narrative on CBA: a dominant retail franchise investing heavily in technology, seeking to defend margins and deepen customer relationships in a digital-first environment.

From record FY25 profit to margin pressure in FY26

Fundamentally, CBA is still printing very strong numbers.

FY25: record earnings and fat dividends

On 13 August 2025, CBA reported record FY25 cash earnings of A$10.25 billion, up about 4% on the prior year, and statutory NPAT of A$10.13 billion. TechStock²+1

Highlights from the FY25 result: TechStock²+1

Total FY25 dividend: A$4.85 per share (fully franked), up 4%, with a payout ratio around 79% of cash NPAT, at the upper end of the bank’s target range.
Final dividend: A$2.60 per share.
Net interest margin (NIM): roughly 2.08%, about 9 basis points higher than FY24, helped by better earnings on capital and hedges.
Capital: CET1 ratio around 12.3% (APRA Level 2), comfortably above the 10.25% regulatory minimum, with a A$1 billion on‑market buy‑back in progress.
Credit quality: loan loss rate around 7 basis points, with about A$2.6 billion of provisions above the central economic scenario.

Despite that, Reuters reported that investors sold the stock aggressively on the day, sending it down about 5% to a three‑month low, largely on valuation concerns given it was trading near 30× earnings and a price‑to‑book multiple more than triple the global bank average. TechStock²+1

Q1 FY26: strong profit, softer margins, higher costs

The September‑quarter (Q1 FY26) trading update released on 11 November 2025 painted a similar picture: solid operations, but mounting pressure on margins and costs. ^[8]

Key Q1 takeaways:

Cash profit: A$2.6 billion, up 2% year‑on‑year.
Home lending: up about A$9.3 billion in the quarter.
Household deposits: up about A$17.8 billion.
Operating expenses: up around 4%, driven by wage inflation and technology investment.
Net interest margin: directionally lower, hurt by deposit switching into higher‑yielding products, intense competition and a lower cash‑rate environment.
Credit quality: still very benign – overdue home loans at 0.66% of the portfolio, problem business loans under 1%, and provisions for potential loan losses equal to about 9 basis points of the loan book. ^[9]

The market reaction was again harsh. CBA shares fell nearly 5% on the day of the trading update, with Reuters and local analysts emphasising that the stock remains one of the most expensive banks globally, even as net interest margins start to compress. ^[10]

Interest rates, regulation and the macro backdrop

Rates: “no cuts in 2026” becomes the new base case

For bank valuations, the RBA’s cash rate outlook is crucial.

By early December, ANZ had joined Commonwealth Bank and NAB in forecasting no further cash‑rate cuts in this cycle, implying the 3.6% cash rate could hold through 2026. Westpac remains the outlier, still pencilling in two cuts in May and August 2026. TechStock²

A Bloomberg preview of the 8–9 December RBA meeting noted that markets expect the central bank to hold rates steady again, with interest‑rate swaps even pricing a small chance of renewed tightening around mid‑2026 if inflation proves sticky and growth stays resilient. TechStock²+1

CBA’s own economics team has been warning that the Australian economy is running close to its “speed limit”, with GDP growth moderating and wage growth lifting, which supports the RBA’s cautious stance. ^[11]

For CBA, this mix means:

A lower‑for‑longer cash rate and intense deposit competition put ongoing pressure on NIM.
Stable but not falling rates give limited relief to heavily indebted households, keeping an eye on arrears and credit losses.

APRA’s AT1 shake‑up: slow‑burn capital pressure

In early December, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) finalised its plan to remove Additional Tier 1 (AT1) hybrids from the bank capital stack by 2032, replacing them with a mix of Tier 2 and common equity (CET1). TechStock²+1

Key points: TechStock²

The new framework kicks in on 1 January 2027, with AT1 phased out over a long runway to 2032.
Large banks like CBA can replace 1.5% of risk‑weighted assets in AT1 with a blend of 1.25% Tier 2 and 0.25% CET1, nudging them toward slightly higher “pure equity” buffers.
Analysts and the RBA view the reform as improving the quality of bank capital, not as a sign of systemic stress.

Given CBA’s CET1 ratio north of 12%, management has room to absorb the shift, but the change does constrain how aggressively capital can be returned to shareholders via buy‑backs and special dividends if earnings growth slows. TechStock²+1

Valuation check: premium quality at a premium price

Across multiple data providers and broker notes, the message is consistent: “great bank, expensive stock.”

Recent numbers from Market Index and StockLight line up roughly as follows: TechStock²+2StockLight+2

Earnings per share (TTM): ~A$6.05
Dividend per share (TTM): A$4.85, fully franked
Share price: mid‑A$150s
Trailing P/E: ~25–26×
Dividend yield: ~3.1% cash (higher after franking credit gross‑up)

StockLight’s quantitative screen flags CBA’s dividend yield as “attractive” versus other diversified banks, but labels its price-to-book and price-to-sales multiples as “unattractive” given they sit well above sector averages. ^[12]

Put simply: the market is still pricing CBA more like a bond proxy with growth options than a typical cyclical bank stock.

What are analysts forecasting for CBA shares?

Global investment banks: downside from today’s level

According to a synthesis of recent research summarised by TS2.tech and MarketBeat, Goldman Sachs initiated or reaffirmed coverage of CBA with a Sell rating and a price target around A$130.18, implying roughly 15–16% downside from current prices before dividends. TechStock²+1

Goldman’s case, as summarised in those reports: TechStock²+1

The last 18–24 months of share‑price strength have been driven largely by multiple expansion, not explosive earnings growth.
The bank’s earnings profile is broadly flat over the forecast period, with their EPS forecasts slightly below consensus.
CBA’s valuation premium to both domestic peers and global banks is unlikely to be sustainable, especially as investors rotate towards cheaper sectors like resources and industrials.

Local brokers: “hold if you own it, but don’t chase it”

A survey of Australian advisers published in The Bull, and echoed across multiple local brokers, paints a nuanced but cautious picture: TechStock²+2The Motley Fool+2

Some advisers rate CBA a Sell, arguing that a P/E in the mid‑20s and a ~3% yield is too rich for a mature bank facing margin pressure and higher regulatory capital.
Others call it a Hold – emphasising its quality, strong capital position and reliable, fully franked dividends – but still see limited upside at current prices.

Separately, analysts at Morgans, in a widely circulated note on the big four banks, have previously flagged CBA as significantly overvalued versus peers, with a price target reportedly well below current trading levels and a preference for cheaper rivals such as Westpac and NAB. ^[13]

Longer‑term earnings and dividend forecasts

Longer‑term broker models, discussed in August research pieces on earnings and dividend forecasts out to 2030, broadly point to: ^[14]

Low‑to‑mid single‑digit annual EPS growth, assuming modest loan growth and a stable but slightly lower NIM.
Gradual dividend growth, with payout ratios staying high but not rising much further given APRA’s capital framework.

Some more bearish commentators have warned that if CBA’s P/E multiple were to normalise closer to 15–18× – nearer global bank averages – the share price could fall by 25–35% from its peak, even without a major earnings shock. ^[15]

Key risks and opportunities for CBA into 2026

Pulling the latest news, forecasts and commentary together, the main upside drivers for CBA shares include: TechStock²+2Intelligent Investor+2

Dominant franchise economics: CBA remains the leading retail bank in Australia with strong deposit funding, a large mortgage book and solid fee businesses.
Robust capital and asset quality: high CET1 ratio, low arrears and substantial provision buffers give management flexibility on dividends and buy‑backs.
Technology and AI investments: initiatives like the OpenAI collaboration and internal AI deployment could support productivity, fee income and customer retention.
Defensive income appeal: in a volatile macro environment, a fully franked 3%+ yield from a strong bank can still look attractive for income‑focused investors.

On the risk side, investors are watching: ^[16]

Valuation compression: at mid‑20s P/E and a P/B above 3×, CBA is highly exposed to any shift in sentiment toward “expensive defensives”.
Margin pressure: deposit competition and a lower‑for‑longer cash rate are already squeezing NIM.
Regulatory overhang: APRA’s capital reforms, CDR enforcement actions like today’s ACCC penalty, and broader conduct scrutiny all constrain how aggressively capital can be returned.
Macro and household leverage: if wage growth stalls or unemployment spikes while rates stay elevated, credit quality could deteriorate from today’s unusually benign levels.

The bottom line for investors watching CBA

As of 9 December 2025, the Commonwealth Bank story looks like this:

Operationally: still a highly profitable, well‑capitalised bank with strong credit metrics and a clear technology strategy.
From a news flow perspective: facing fresh regulatory scrutiny via the ACCC’s CDR penalty, while simultaneously trying to position itself as a national leader in AI and digital capability.
Valuation-wise: trading at a marked premium to peers, with many analysts warning of limited upside and meaningful downside if that premium normalises.

Most professional commentary now clusters around a “quality but fully‑priced” narrative: CBA the bank remains rock solid; CBA the stock looks more like a cautious Hold than an obvious bargain, based on current forecasts and price targets.

None of this is personal financial advice, of course. But if you’re analysing CBA, the latest round of news and forecasts suggests the crucial questions are: