Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) started the week under pressure on Monday, 15 December 2025, with its share price slipping alongside a broader pullback in Australian equities. The immediate catalyst was a shift in interest-rate expectations after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) signalled it may be done easing—and warned borrowing costs could rise again if inflation remains sticky. TradingView
At the same time, a fresh regulatory headline out of New Zealand hit the tape: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has filed civil proceedings against ASB Bank—CBA’s New Zealand subsidiary—over alleged breaches of anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CFT) requirements going back to at least 2019. Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Against that backdrop, the market’s long-running debate about CBA hasn’t changed—just sharpened: it’s widely viewed as a high-quality franchise, but it also trades at a premium valuation that leaves little room for disappointment. Reuters has previously noted CBA’s valuation metrics sit well above global banking averages, a point analysts have repeatedly flagged when recommending cheaper alternatives among the Big Four. Reuters
CBA share price today: what happened on 15 December 2025
In Reuters reporting carried by TradingView, Australian equities fell on Monday, heading for their steepest drop in more than three weeks, with bank stocks weaker after the RBA “flagged possible future interest rate hikes.” In that session, CBA was reported down 0.6%. TradingView
Market data snapshots around the day show CBA trading in the mid–A$150s. Yahoo Finance’s historical pricing data lists CBA at A$155.24 for 15 December (with an intraday range shown around A$154.00–A$155.43). Yahoo Finance
For context, multiple market-data providers show CBA closing at A$155.96 on 12 December 2025, underscoring how tightly the stock has been consolidating after a volatile year. MarketScreener
The big macro driver: RBA holds at 3.60%, signals easing cycle may be over
Banks live and die (financially speaking) by the shape of the yield curve, deposit competition, and what central banks do next.
Reuters reported that the RBA held rates steady at 3.60% and signalled an end to its easing cycle, while warning borrowing costs could rise if inflation pressures persist. TradingView
That matters for CBA in two competing ways:
- Potential upside: higher rates can support bank margins over time (banks often reprice loans faster than deposits—until deposit competition bites back).
- Potential downside: higher-for-longer rates can stress borrowers, slow credit growth, and raise the risk of arrears—especially in a mortgage-heavy system like Australia’s.
Investors spent much of 2025 trying to decide which force dominates. Monday’s price action suggests the market initially leaned toward “rates higher = more uncertainty” rather than “rates higher = instant margin win.” TradingView
A second headline investors noticed: ASB faces NZ AML/CFT proceedings
While the rate story is macro, the New Zealand story is idiosyncratic—and it involves CBA’s wholly owned subsidiary, ASB Bank.
On 15 December 2025, the RBNZ announced it had filed civil proceedings in the High Court against ASB for alleged breaches of core requirements under the AML/CFT Act 2009, dating back to at least December 2019. The regulator said the alleged non-compliance related to failures including maintaining a compliant AML/CFT programme, conducting adequate ongoing and enhanced due diligence, reporting suspicious activity in time, and terminating relationships when required. Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Key details that investors will care about:
- ASB has admitted liability for all seven causes of action, according to the RBNZ. Reserve Bank of New Zealand
- The parties have agreed to jointly recommend a penalty of NZ$6.73 million, though the final decision is for the Court. Reserve Bank of New Zealand
- The RBNZ explicitly said it is not alleging ASB was involved in money laundering or terrorism financing—the issue is compliance shortcomings. Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Reuters reporting carried by TradingView included comments from ASB’s CEO acknowledging shortcomings in transaction monitoring and customer due diligence systems and stating that backlogs of monitoring alerts were cleared by February 2024, with ongoing improvements underway. TradingView
On its own, NZ$6.73 million isn’t financially material to a bank the size of CBA. The real investor question is reputational and supervisory: does this become a “one-off compliance clean-up story,” or does it keep regulators and risk costs uncomfortably in the headlines?
Australia regulatory overhang: Consumer Data Right penalty (December 2025)
CBA also faced a separate regulatory issue in Australia earlier this month.
Reuters reported that CBA paid A$792,000 after the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) issued infringement notices alleging breaches of Consumer Data Right (CDR) rules, linked to failures to enable data sharing for certain accounts. Reuters
CBA’s own statement said it entered an Administrative Resolution with the ACCC, voluntarily reported the issue, accepted the findings, and planned to contact affected customers about remediation starting from the week commencing 19 January 2026. CommBank
Again, the dollar amount isn’t what moves a stock like CBA. The investor relevance is cumulative: operational, compliance, and technology execution are now regular parts of the banking investment thesis—because regulators increasingly treat them as core safety issues, not “back-office trivia.”
Fundamentals check: mortgage growth strong, but margin pressure hasn’t vanished
CBA remains Australia’s biggest bank by market capitalisation and a heavyweight driver of the ASX financials sector. Its dominance is clearest in housing.
Reuters reported that CBA accounts for roughly a quarter of Australia’s A$2.2 trillion mortgage market. Reuters
In its July–September quarterly trading update (reported by Reuters in November), the bank delivered A$2.6 billion in first-quarter cash profit and pointed to margin pressure from competition and a lower cash-rate environment. Reuters also reported:
- Operating costs rose 4%, driven by wage growth and higher technology costs. Reuters
- Home lending expanded by A$9.3 billion in the quarter, while household deposits increased A$17.8 billion. Reuters
- The bank cited deposit switching and competition as drivers of “slightly lower” underlying margin, and noted strong growth in lower-yielding liquid assets (including a reported A$10 billion increase in institutional deposits). Reuters
Separately, Reuters reported that CBA’s CEO told lawmakers the bank believed home loan demand was “too high” and contributing to higher property prices, while noting the bank benefits from strong housing credit growth. Reuters also cited CBA’s mortgage book rising 6% to A$664.7 billion in the financial year ended 30 June. Reuters
That’s the CBA story in miniature: enormous scale and momentum in mortgages, paired with constant margin knife-fights (especially on deposits) and a watchful regulatory environment.
CBA stock forecast: what analysts are signalling right now
Here’s where things get spicy.
Broker and analyst consensus data aggregated by MarketScreener shows:
- 14 analysts tracked
- Average target price:A$121.36
- High:A$146.00
- Low:A$96.07
- Consensus rating:Sell MarketScreener
Fintel’s aggregation is in a similar ballpark, listing an average price target of A$125.38 (with the same high and low values shown) and also displaying a “Sell” consensus. Fintel
With CBA trading around the mid–A$150s on 15 December, those consensus targets imply roughly ~19–22% downside from current levels, depending on the dataset and the exact price reference point. MarketScreener
This disconnect—share price resilience versus bearish target prices—is not new for CBA. It’s basically the stock’s personality at this point.
Why would targets sit so far below the market price?
Analysts (and Reuters commentary around CBA’s results) have repeatedly returned to three ideas:
- Valuation gravity: CBA has been described as expensive versus global peers, with valuation multiples above sector averages. Reuters
- Margin reality: competition in mortgages and deposits can compress net interest margins even when balance sheets grow. Reuters
- Rate uncertainty: if central banks stop cutting and start talking hikes, the “soft landing” narrative becomes less comfortable, and loan-loss risk becomes harder to price. TradingView
Valuation snapshot: premium pricing, even on basic metrics
Some market-data services publish key per-share fundamentals that make it easier to understand why the valuation debate won’t die.
Market Index lists (among other metrics) an EPS figure of $6.052, DPS of $4.85, and book value per share of $47.119 for CBA. Market Index
Using a share price around A$155 (as shown in pricing data for mid-December):
- That implies a price-to-earnings ratio around ~26x (155 ÷ 6.052).
- That implies a price-to-book ratio around ~3.3x (155 ÷ 47.119). Market Index
You don’t need to be a quant to see why value-focused analysts get itchy here: banking is usually a “mid-teens P/E, around book value” kind of sector—unless the bank is perceived as unusually safe, unusually dominant, or both.
Bull case vs bear case for Commonwealth Bank shares into 2026
Investors searching for the “correct” CBA narrative keep bouncing between two worlds.
The bull case
CBA bulls argue the premium is justified because the bank is:
- A scale winner in Australian retail banking and mortgages, with a large, sticky customer base. Reuters
- Operationally strong enough to keep investing through the cycle—especially in tech, security, and fraud/scam controls (areas regulators increasingly care about). Reuters
- Positioned to benefit if rates stay higher for longer without triggering serious credit stress.
CBA has also continued to highlight technology and capability-building initiatives, including a national skills program aimed at helping small businesses improve AI, cybersecurity and digital capability (announced in early December). CommBank
The bear case
Bears aren’t saying CBA is a bad bank. They’re saying it’s a great bank at a difficult price.
Key bear arguments include:
- Too much perfection priced in: when targets cluster well below market price, it signals analysts believe the market is paying a “quality halo” premium that’s stretched. MarketScreener
- Competition remains intense: CBA itself has pointed to deposit switching and competitive pressure weighing on underlying margins. Reuters
- Regulatory noise isn’t going away: the NZ AML/CFT proceedings against ASB and the Australian CDR penalty reinforce that compliance execution can still surprise to the downside. Reserve Bank of New Zealand
- Housing sensitivity: if the RBA truly pivots from “easing” to “maybe hiking,” the mortgage-heavy system faces a tougher risk equation, even if the banks’ balance sheets look fine today. TradingView
What to watch next: catalysts that can move ASX:CBA
CBA is not a meme stock; it tends to move when fundamentals, rates, or regulation move. The next few signposts investors are tracking include:
- Regulatory follow-through in New Zealand: the High Court process around ASB and how quickly the matter is resolved. Reserve Bank of New Zealand
- Australian interest-rate expectations: whether inflation data forces the RBA toward hikes, or whether the “hold” stance wins out. TradingView
- Next reporting milestone: Market Index’s forecast calendar flags an interim report around February 2026. Market Index
- Housing credit and macroprudential settings: CBA and policymakers have been openly discussing the pace of housing credit growth and financial stability implications. Reuters
Bottom line
On 15 December 2025, Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock is being tugged in two directions: macro optimism about the durability of the Australian banking franchise, and renewed macro/regulatory uncertainty as central banks talk tough and supervisors stay active.
CBA shares remain a market bellwether—so even a “small” down day matters, because it reflects what investors think about rates, housing, and risk appetite more broadly. Monday’s dip (reported at around 0.6%) came as the RBA’s messaging pulled bank stocks lower and fresh NZ regulatory action put CBA’s ASB subsidiary in the spotlight. TradingView
The valuation debate is the gravitational field everything else orbits: consensus targets clustered around A$121–A$125 versus a share price around the mid-A$150s explain why forecasts look cautious even when the business remains profitable and dominant. MarketScreener
