NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 4:11 p.m. ET — Market closed.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) heads into the final stretch of 2025 with U.S. stock markets shut for the weekend—and with energy investors weighing a familiar mix of forces: year-end liquidity, shifting crude-oil narratives, and a growing focus on 2026 supply-and-demand forecasts.
COP shares last traded around $91.54, down about 0.28% on the most recent regular session, with Friday’s intraday range roughly $90.75 to $92.46 and volume near 4.6 million shares. Some extended-hours indications showed a modest dip after the close. [1]
A quiet year-end tape—but still headline-sensitive
Friday’s post-holiday session was light-volume and nearly unchanged, with the major indexes finishing slightly lower after a multi-day run. In a Reuters market recap, Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, described the session as a pause after a strong rally and pointed to the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window as a narrative many traders are watching into early January. [2]
That year-end backdrop matters for COP because thin liquidity can amplify moves—especially when the key driver for upstream producers (crude oil) is moving fast on macro headlines.
Oil dropped more than 2% Friday—oversupply talk is back in focus
Crude oil ended Friday sharply lower. Brent settled around $60.64/bbl and WTI around $56.74/bbl, according to Reuters, as the market digested renewed discussion of a global supply glut alongside geopolitics and peace-process headlines tied to the Russia-Ukraine war. [3]
Reuters also highlighted two expert takes that help explain why energy equities can feel “tug-of-war” price action:
- Aegis Hedging analysts wrote that geopolitical risk has offered near-term support, but hasn’t changed the “oversupply narrative.” [4]
- Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, pointed to elevated global storage and incremental progress on peace talks as key inputs the oil market is watching. [5]
For ConocoPhillips stock, the takeaway is straightforward: even when broad equities drift, crude direction can dominate day-to-day sentiment for large E&Ps.
2026 forecasts: EIA sees downward pressure on crude prices
Beyond the daily tape, the bigger debate for COP into 2026 is whether crude prices stabilize—or soften further.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) expects global inventories to rise through 2026, putting downward pressure on prices. The EIA forecast cited Brent averaging about $55 per barrel in 1Q 2026 and staying near that level for much of 2026. [6]
In another EIA update, the agency forecast WTI averaging about $51/bbl in 2026 (with 2025 around $65/bbl in that forecast), reinforcing the market’s concern that next year could remain a lower-price environment than recent years. [7]
For ConocoPhillips investors, this is the central macro question: how resilient is COP’s cash-flow and capital-return story if crude prices are range-bound or weaker?
Fresh analysis: Zacks leans “hold” as investors balance strengths vs. risks
One of the more widely syndicated COP notes over the last 48 hours came from Zacks Equity Research, published on Nasdaq.com on Dec. 26. Zacks argued a “hold” strategy is appropriate right now—highlighting ConocoPhillips’ scale and asset depth while also underscoring risks tied to commodity prices and project costs. [8]
Key points Zacks emphasized include:
- Portfolio strength and scale across major shale basins and international assets. [9]
- Marathon Oil acquisition synergies—Zacks said ConocoPhillips is on track for more than $1 billion in run-rate synergies by end-2025, above earlier expectations. [10]
- Willow project cost inflation—Zacks cited updated capital estimates of $8.5–$9.0 billion and noted the long runway to first oil (Zacks referenced 2029). [11]
Wall Street targets: “Moderate Buy” consensus, but price targets vary
On the Street’s broader stance, MarketBeat’s compiled analyst data shows ConocoPhillips with a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating based on 26 analyst ratings, and an average 12‑month price target near $114.08 (with targets spanning a wide range). [12]
MarketBeat’s tracker also lists recent target moves from major firms in December, including:
- BMO Capital Markets lowering a target to $105 (Outperform)
- UBS analyst Josh Silverstein boosting a target to $120 (Buy)
- Jefferies (listed with analyst Lloyd Byrne) reiterating Buy
- Mizuho (listed with analyst Nitin Kumar) maintaining an Outperform stance [13]
Investors typically treat price targets as directional signals, not promises—but the clustering of targets above the latest trading level suggests analysts broadly expect COP’s valuation to be supported if oil doesn’t materially weaken from here.
The next big catalyst: Q4 earnings and 2026 guidance on Feb. 5
While the weekend is quiet on the corporate-news front, ConocoPhillips already has a major calendar item on deck: the company said it will release fourth-quarter 2025 results before the market opens on Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026, followed by a 12:00 p.m. ET webcast covering results and 2026 guidance. [14]
That matters because for COP—and for the entire large-cap E&P space—guidance (capex, production outlook, capital returns, and commentary on price assumptions) can move the stock as much as the headline EPS number.
Capital returns remain part of the COP story
ConocoPhillips has leaned into shareholder returns in recent quarters. In materials tied to its third-quarter reporting cycle, the company disclosed an 8% increase in the quarterly ordinary dividend to $0.84 per share (paid Dec. 1, 2025, to holders of record Nov. 17) and outlined multi‑billion‑dollar shareholder distributions including buybacks. [15]
For investors, the practical implication is that dividends and repurchases are an important piece of the bull case—especially if 2026 oil prices are softer than the past few years.
What investors should watch before the next session
Because the NYSE is closed for the weekend, the next real test for COP will come when markets reopen on Monday, Dec. 29, with attention likely to fall on:
- Sunday-night / Monday crude futures direction, especially after Friday’s sharp oil decline. [16]
- Geopolitical headlines tied to Russia-Ukraine developments and broader supply-risk narratives (themes that Reuters flagged as active inputs for oil traders). [17]
- Year-end trading dynamics—thin volume and positioning can exaggerate early moves, as highlighted in Reuters’ post-holiday market recap. [18]
- The bigger 2026 setup—with EIA forecasts pointing to inventory builds and lower crude averages, any new data or commentary that challenges (or reinforces) that view can quickly feed into energy equities. [19]
Bottom line: going into Monday’s open, ConocoPhillips stock is likely to trade less on company-specific headlines and more as a high-quality proxy for the oil macro narrative—with analyst sentiment still constructive, but with 2026 price forecasts keeping the sector’s margin-for-error in the spotlight. [20]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.eia.gov, 7. www.eia.gov, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.conocophillips.com, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.eia.gov, 20. www.marketbeat.com
