ConocoPhillips stock dips below $100 as oil slides on Venezuela supply talk

New York, Jan 6, 2026, 15:17 EST — Regular session

ConocoPhillips shares (COP.N) fell 1.8% to $97.39 by 3:02 p.m. EST, retreating with other U.S. oil majors after a sharp move a day earlier. Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) was down 2.9% and Chevron (CVX.N) slid 4.5%.

Oil prices eased as traders weighed expectations of ample global supply in 2026 against uncertainty over Venezuelan output after the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro at the weekend. Brent crude was down 1.1% at $61.07 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped 1.4% to $57.53 by early afternoon. “Oil supply will be sufficient in 2026, with or without an increase in production from the OPEC member,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil; Morgan Stanley analysts said the market could be in a surplus of as much as 3 million barrels per day in the first half, while U.S. inventory data due Tuesday and Wednesday could steer near-term prices. Reuters

The stock had risen more than 2% on Monday after President Donald Trump signaled U.S. oil companies may get wider access to Venezuela’s heavy crude and to assets seized in 2007. “This type of crude aligns well with the configuration of U.S. Gulf Coast refineries,” said Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone. Analysts at J.P. Morgan said ConocoPhillips has arbitration claims approaching $10 billion — legal awards from dispute panels — that could have a higher chance of recovery if policy shifts. Reuters

But turning Venezuela’s Orinoco belt reserves into marketable barrels is expensive: much of the oil is heavy or extra-heavy and needs blending with diluent, or thinner oil, and upgrading before it can be moved and processed. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates breakeven costs in the Orinoco average more than $80 a barrel — the oil price needed to cover costs — and Reuters columnist Ron Bousso noted political risk remains high. “The opportunity must be compelling enough to offset the substantial political risk that will persist in the years ahead,” said Carlos Bellorin, an analyst at Welligence Energy; ConocoPhillips has said it aims to generate free cash flow — cash left after capital spending — even if oil falls to $35. Reuters

ConocoPhillips’ next scheduled catalyst is its fourth-quarter earnings conference call on Feb. 5 at 12:00 p.m. Eastern. The company also posted “Sensitivity & Guidance Items” slides dated Jan. 5, which investors will parse for how management plans to run spending and returns if oil stays under pressure. Conocophillips

Khadija Saeed Latest posts

A dedicated markets reporter, she covers stocks, macroeconomics, and major business developments with a sharp eye for detail and accuracy.

View all

Indian Shares Set for Muted Start After Two-Day Rally and Fed Rate Pause
January 28, 2026, 9:50 PM EST. Indian stock benchmarks are expected to open little changed following a two-day rally driven by a new trade deal with the European Union and the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate hikes. The EU agreement will remove tariffs on 90% of Indian goods, improving sentiment. However, foreign investors have sold $4.56 billion this month amid ongoing U.S. tariff concerns and disappointing earnings from major firms. The Nifty index is down 3% month-to-date, with small- and mid-cap stocks falling more due to broad risk aversion. Investors now await the Union budget for fiscal 2026-27 on February 1 for signs of economic and corporate growth. Asian markets opened lower, while Wall Street saw modest gains after the Fed's announcement.