NEW YORK, Jan 3, 2026, 06:50 ET — Market closed
- U.S. forces struck Venezuela overnight; Trump said Nicolas Maduro was captured and taken out of the country.
- ConocoPhillips shares closed up 3.3% on Friday; energy peers also advanced.
- Traders are watching weekend headlines, OPEC+ output policy and crude’s reopening for the next directional cue.
U.S. forces carried out strikes in Venezuela overnight and President Donald Trump said Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro was captured and flown out of the country. “Oil prices were likely to jump on the near-term risk to supply,” said Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Marquee. Reuters
Oil started 2026 after a weak 2025, with prices caught between oversupply fears and geopolitical flare-ups. Brent futures settled down 10 cents at $60.75 a barrel on Friday and U.S. West Texas Intermediate closed down 10 cents at $57.32.
That matters for ConocoPhillips because crude prices drive the value of the oil and gas it sells. When traders build a risk premium — an extra price cushion for uncertainty — energy shares often move first and sort out the details later.
ConocoPhillips shares rose 3.3% to close at $96.70 on Friday, according to market data. Exxon Mobil and Chevron also advanced in the same session.
Wall Street targets still sit above the last close, though they vary widely. Data compiled by StockAnalysis.com show an average 12-month price target of $115.17 for COP, implying about 19% upside from Friday’s close.
Early signals from Venezuela’s oil sector offered a counterweight to the weekend shock. Two sources familiar with PDVSA operations told Reuters that production and refining were normal and the main facilities were unaffected, though the port of La Guaira suffered severe damage.
If that assessment holds and exports keep flowing, the market’s next move may hinge on whether Washington tightens sanctions or whether fighting expands beyond targeted sites. Either way, traders tend to price the risk before they can verify the barrels.
ConocoPhillips has been positioning shareholders for a steadier 2026. The company in November raised its quarterly dividend 8% to $0.84 per share and issued preliminary 2026 guidance including about $12 billion in capital spending, Reuters reported.
The near-term forecast for COP is likely to track crude futures when they reopen after the weekend. A sharp move higher in oil can lift the group on Monday, while a muted crude reaction may pull attention back to fundamentals and upcoming guidance.
Investors will also watch for spillover into other energy names and the broader equity market. A wider risk-off move would blur the usual link between oil and producers, at least at the open.
Before next session
OPEC+ meets on Sunday and is likely to maintain steady output policy, three delegates told Reuters, after it paused plans for quarterly supply increases. Any surprise on supply would land in the same weekend window as the Venezuela headlines.
ConocoPhillips said it will release fourth-quarter results before the market opens on Feb. 5 and hold a webcast at noon ET that day, when it plans to discuss 2026 guidance items. Traders will parse spending, production and shareholder-return signals against the new oil backdrop.
On the charts, traders often watch round numbers like $100 and the mid-$90s for direction. Those can act as “support” or “resistance” — zones where buyers or sellers have tended to show up — especially when headlines, not earnings, are driving the tape.
