New York, January 15, 2026, 13:34 (ET) — Regular session
- COP shares trade lower as crude prices slide and investors trim energy exposure.
- ConocoPhillips flagged “encouraging” early results from an Australia drilling campaign, but said no development decision has been made.
- Focus turns to Feb. 5 quarterly results and 2026 guidance.
ConocoPhillips shares slipped 0.6% to $99.69 in early afternoon trading on Thursday, tracking a sharp drop in crude prices. Exxon Mobil fell 0.4%, Chevron lost 0.3% and Occidental Petroleum dropped about 2.4%.
The move matters now because the market has been peeling back the “risk premium” in oil — the extra price traders pay when supply disruptions look more likely. When that cushion disappears, producers like ConocoPhillips usually feel it first.
Investors are also juggling new company headlines and position-setting ahead of earnings. The stock has bounced in recent sessions, but the next catalyst is guidance: what Conoco plans to spend and return in 2026.
On Wednesday, ConocoPhillips climbed 4.02% to close at $100.34, outperforming Exxon Mobil and Chevron in a down day for the broader market. Volume hit 13.5 million shares, well above its 50-day average, MarketWatch data showed. 1
Brent futures were down $3.11, or 4.7%, at $63.41 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell $3.04, or 4.9%, at $58.98 by early afternoon, after President Donald Trump’s comments eased concerns about Iranian supply. “We went from a high likelihood that Trump was going to hit Iran to a low likelihood,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. He also pointed to data showing U.S. crude stockpiles rose 3.4 million barrels and gasoline inventories climbed 4.2 million barrels, adding: “That will keep prices anchored.” 2
ConocoPhillips Australia said it has completed Phase 1 of its Otway Basin drilling campaign offshore Victoria and saw indications of natural gas in wireline logs at both the Essington-1 and Charlemont-1 wells. “These well results highlight the potential of the Otway Basin,” said Jan-Arne Johansen, president of ConocoPhillips Australia. The company said it is still studying the data and has not made a decision on moving to development. 3
Mizuho reiterated an Outperform rating and a $121 price target on the stock on Thursday. It said ConocoPhillips could miss consensus by about 8% on fourth-quarter EBITDAX — a cash-style earnings measure used in oil and gas — and cash flow from operations because of weak gas prices in the U.S. Lower 48 states. 4
But the downside case is straightforward. If crude stays under pressure and U.S. gas prices do not improve, the debate shifts from growth to simple cash generation, and the shares can sag with the commodity tape.
The upside risk cuts the other way: geopolitics can reprice fast, and the oil market has a habit of putting the risk premium back just as quickly as it takes it out.
ConocoPhillips plans to release fourth-quarter results before the market opens on Feb. 5 and host a webcast at 12:00 p.m. Eastern that day. Investors will be listening for any change to 2026 guidance items and the pace of shareholder returns. 5
