Constellation Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CEG) heads into Monday’s session with two powerful narratives colliding: a “nuclear renaissance” story tied to AI-era power demand, and a high-stakes acquisition that could reshape the U.S. generation landscape—along with the regulatory strings attached.
By Friday’s close (Dec. 12), CEG had just delivered a reminder that even market darlings can swing hard: shares finished at $351.98, after trading as high as $380.10 and as low as $351.31 in a volatile session.
Below is what investors and traders will be watching ahead of the opening bell on Monday, Dec. 15, 2025.
CEG stock snapshot heading into Monday
A quick set of numbers to anchor the setup:
- Last close (Dec. 12):$351.98
- Day’s range (Dec. 12):$351.31 – $380.10
- 52-week range:$161.35 – $412.70 [1]
- Next earnings (estimated/expected by trackers): mid-February 2026 (estimates vary by source) [2]
That wide 52-week range underscores the market’s evolving view of Constellation: part utility-like defensiveness, part growth-equity momentum—especially as AI/data center power demand has become a dominant theme across the power sector. [3]
The biggest near-term catalyst: the Calpine acquisition and the divestiture conditions
What happened (and why it matters)
Constellation’s planned purchase of Calpine is moving closer to the finish line—but the deal comes with meaningful divestiture requirements that investors need to model.
- Constellation said on Dec. 5 it reached a resolution with the U.S. Department of Justice, calling it the “final regulatory clearance needed” to complete the acquisition. [4]
- The company also detailed that FERC’s approval required divesting four Mid-Atlantic generating assets: Hay Road, Edge Moor, Bethlehem, and York 1. [5]
- On top of that, Constellation said it agreed (as part of the DOJ resolution) to divest York 2, Jack Fusco, and a minority ownership interest in the Gregory Power Plant. [6]
The DOJ’s version: “six-plant divestiture” and a court process
The Justice Department’s press release frames the transaction as a $26.6 billion acquisition and says the settlement requires divestiture of six power plants across Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Texas—explicitly listing:
Bethlehem Energy Center; York Energy Center (York 1 and York 2); Hay Road; Edge Moor; Jack A. Fusco; and Gregory Power Plant. [7]
The DOJ also describes a Tunney Act process: publication in the Federal Register, a public comment window, and then court entry of a final judgment if it’s found to be in the public interest. [8]
Constellation, meanwhile, says the parties “can begin closing” once the court signs the stipulation and order agreed to by the parties and DOJ. [9]
Why the market cares heading into Dec. 15
For Monday’s trade, this is less about the headline “deal approved” (which is now well-known) and more about what the conditions imply:
- Asset sales and pricing: Constellation argues the market has increasingly recognized the importance of natural gas generation for rising demand (manufacturing onshoring, electrification, and the “data economy”) and expects a robust market and attractive value for the divested assets. [10]
- Execution risk: Divestitures can be value-neutral—or value-destructive—depending on timing, buyer appetite, and any required sale deadlines.
- Strategic shift: If completed, the Calpine deal would create enormous scale. The DOJ said the combination would create the largest wholesale power generator in the United States. [11]
Reuters has also highlighted the deal’s scale (describing it as a $16.4 billion acquisition) and noted the rising electricity-demand backdrop tied to AI data centers and electrification. [12]
Financing signals: Constellation’s Calpine note exchange offers
While equity investors often focus on price targets and earnings, credit-market mechanics can matter for sentiment—especially around mega-deals.
On Dec. 9, Constellation Energy Generation, LLC announced private exchange offers and consent solicitations for certain Calpine notes, exchanging them for newly issued Constellation notes (with certain feature changes) as part of the broader transaction process. [13]
Notable dates in the company’s timetable:
- Withdrawal/Early tender deadline:Dec. 22, 2025 (5:00 p.m. NYC time) [14]
- Expiration date:Jan. 8, 2026 (5:00 p.m. NYC time) [15]
For CEG shareholders, the practical takeaway is that Constellation is actively working through the transaction “plumbing,” reinforcing that the market should keep treating Calpine integration as a live catalyst—not a distant 2026 story.
The other major pillar: federal backing for the Crane (Three Mile Island) nuclear restart
Constellation’s longer-term bull case has increasingly centered on nuclear as premium, always-on power for data centers—and the company has been attaching real contracts and government financing to that theme.
DOE closes a $1 billion loan
On Nov. 18, 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy said its Loan Programs Office closed a $1 billion loan to Constellation Energy Generation, LLC to help finance the restart of the Crane Clean Energy Center, an 835 MW plant in Pennsylvania. [16]
DOE noted the plant ceased operations in 2019, was never fully decommissioned, and would restart pending NRC licensing approvals, providing baseload power to PJM and “powering the equivalent of approximately 800,000 homes.” [17]
Microsoft deal and timeline
Reuters and other outlets have tied the restart economics to a long-term agreement with Microsoft aimed at powering data centers, and Reuters reported Constellation moved up the restart timeline to 2027 after PJM accelerated certain grid interconnection review steps. [18]
For Monday’s stock setup, the Crane project matters less as an immediate earnings driver (it’s not producing yet) and more as a valuation support: investors have been pricing nuclear plants as scarce strategic assets in an AI-heavy grid.
Latest earnings and 2025 outlook: what Constellation last guided
Constellation’s most recent quarterly results (Q3 2025) continue to serve as the baseline for “what’s priced in” before the next earnings cycle.
In its Nov. 7, 2025 release, Constellation reported:
- GAAP net income:$2.97 per share
- Adjusted operating earnings:$3.04 per share
- Full-year 2025 adjusted operating earnings guidance narrowed to:$9.05 – $9.45 per share [19]
The company also highlighted strong nuclear operations, reporting a 96.8% capacity factor (excluding Salem and STP) for the quarter. [20]
Reuters similarly reported the narrowed 2025 forecast range and noted Constellation missed quarterly profit estimates at the time. [21]
Capital returns: dividend and buybacks
Constellation declared a quarterly dividend of $0.3878 per share (payable Dec. 5, 2025). [22]
On the capital return side, an earnings call transcript summary from Investing.com referenced $600 million remaining on an existing buyback program. [23]
Wall Street forecasts: analyst price targets and ratings (and what they imply from here)
With CEG closing near $352, Street targets have become an important part of the “is it already priced?” debate.
- MarketBeat’s analyst aggregation shows an average 12-month price target around $399 (with a high near $478 and low near $258), implying low-to-mid teens upside from recent levels. [24]
- Investing.com’s consensus estimates similarly show an average target near $399.93 (high $478, low roughly $342), and a consensus leaning Buy. [25]
- MarketBeat also notes multiple recent analyst rating changes over the prior 90 days (mix of upgrades and downgrades). [26]
What to watch Monday: if the stock stabilizes after Friday’s sharp move, investors may re-anchor to these targets; if volatility continues, the market may focus more on execution risks around divestitures and Calpine integration than on 12‑month valuations.
Key risks to watch before the bell on Dec. 15
Even with supportive long-term narratives, CEG has several headline-sensitive risk points that can move the stock quickly:
- Calpine deal execution and divestiture outcomes
The DOJ’s six-plant divestiture requirement and the court process introduce timing and valuation uncertainty around the final shape of the combined company. [27] - Regulatory and political risk around “premium power” deals
Constellation’s AI/data center-driven nuclear thesis relies on long-term contracting and favorable market rules; shifts in regulatory posture could affect pricing power and deal economics. [28] - Crane restart timeline and licensing
DOE explicitly points to NRC licensing approvals as gating items for restart. Any delays can change long-term cash-flow timing. [29] - Valuation sensitivity and momentum swings
With CEG having traded up to the low $400s within the past year, sentiment can reverse quickly when the market rotates away from crowded themes—especially those adjacent to AI demand narratives. [30]
What could move Constellation Energy stock on Monday
Before the market opens on Dec. 15, the most practical “watch list” looks like this:
- Any new filings or court updates related to the DOJ settlement/divestiture process (since the DOJ described an ongoing legal process under the Tunney Act). [31]
- Additional details on how and when Constellation expects to sell the required plants—and whether buyers emerge quickly. [32]
- Broader sector sentiment around AI-driven power demand (a theme being echoed by major industry players). [33]
- Any fresh commentary on power prices, capacity markets, or grid reliability that changes the near-term earnings narrative for merchant generators.
Constellation Energy enters the week with clear catalysts and equally clear constraints: the Calpine acquisition is nearing a critical stage, but the divestitures are substantial; the Crane nuclear restart has government financing support, but it’s still a multi-year project; and the stock’s valuation remains highly sensitive to the market’s confidence that AI-era electricity demand will translate into durable earnings power.
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.constellationenergy.com, 5. www.constellationenergy.com, 6. www.constellationenergy.com, 7. www.justice.gov, 8. www.justice.gov, 9. www.constellationenergy.com, 10. www.constellationenergy.com, 11. www.justice.gov, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.constellationenergy.com, 14. www.constellationenergy.com, 15. www.constellationenergy.com, 16. www.energy.gov, 17. www.energy.gov, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.constellationenergy.com, 20. www.constellationenergy.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.constellationenergy.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.justice.gov, 28. www.barrons.com, 29. www.energy.gov, 30. www.marketwatch.com, 31. www.justice.gov, 32. www.constellationenergy.com, 33. www.barrons.com
