NEW YORK, July 18, 2026, 16:11 EDT
- U.S. markets did not open Saturday. The shares finished Friday at $252.39, an increase of 0.4% for the week.
- Annual gross capacity payments are estimated at approximately $2.24 billion from June 2028, according to preliminary calculations.
- Nuclear facilities accounted for 83% of cleared capacity, reducing the earnings gain achieved per dollar.
Constellation Energy Corporation NASDAQ:CEG secured capacity valued at approximately $2.24 billion in initial annual gross payments. Its stock advanced just 0.4% over the past week.
All PJM facilities secured 18,875 megawatts at $325 per MW-day. The contract becomes active on June 1, 2028.
Nuclear facilities supplied 15,700 MW, accounting for 83% of the total. This figure amounts to roughly $1.86 billion from the gross estimate.
Constellation states that nuclear capacity revenue is included in the federal production-tax-credit gross-receipts test, and says its analysis indicates investors should not count this revenue as an addition to base earnings.
This alters the equation. Increased nuclear receipts may decrease tax-credit support before profit sees an equivalent rise.
Constellation secured more capacity at a reduced price versus the previous auction.
| PJM planning year | Price, $/MW-day | Nuclear MW | Fossil/other MW | Total MW | Preliminary gross/year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027/28 | 333 | 15,525 | 2,950 | 18,475 | $2.25 billion |
| 2028/29 | 325 | 15,700 | 3,175 | 18,875 | $2.24 billion |
Initial reporter calculations are based on submitted megawatts, listed prices and a full 365-day period. They do not factor in costs, performance-related fees, hedging or the impact of tax credits.
Total annualized gross payments fell by around 0.3%, even as 400 megawatts were added. The increased volume was offset by a drop in the clearing price.
Non-nuclear output posted gains, as fossil and other generation climbed by 225 MW, pushing preliminary gross payments up 5% to $377 million.
PJM’s overall outlook continues to indicate limited generation. The auction reached its price cap but fell short of the reliability goal by 6.8 gigawatts.
Most areas would have settled at $554.72 without the cap. PJM chief David Mills stated demand is “continues to grow faster than electricity supply.” Reuters
PJM spot prices soared beyond $300 per MWh on Wednesday as heat drove scarcity, after trading near $30 earlier.
Vistra NYSE:VST shares declined 2.2% over the week, while Constellation posted a modest rise, though investor enthusiasm appeared muted.
Analysts continue to hold a bullish outlook. FactSet data show a median price target for Constellation at $369, representing a roughly 46% premium to Friday’s closing value.
The primary driver for higher earnings continues to be long-term nuclear contracts. Constellation says 147 million annual MWh are either backed by tax credits or open for agreements.
The model allocates $0.40 to $1.00 of yearly EPS for each contracted gigawatt, based on a $20-to-$50 premium over the tax-credit floor. These figures are company scenarios and not forecasts.
Traders will monitor PJM heat, congestion and spot prices through the week of July 20. Constellation has its next quarterly report set for August 6.
Risks: Extending the price cap again may constrain scarcity value. Downtime or softer spark spreads could decrease operating leverage.
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