Copper Dec 25 (HGZ25) Futures: Record Highs, Supply Squeeze and 2026 Price Outlook (5

Copper’s December 2025 futures contract on COMEX (symbol HGZ25, often quoted as Copper Dec 25) is trading just below record territory, with prices around $5.38 per pound at the close on Friday, 5 December 2025. ^[1] A powerful mix of tariff fears, mine disruptions, AI‑driven demand and aggressive bank forecasts has pushed copper – and especially the Dec 25 contract – back into the spotlight for traders watching commodities into year‑end.

Below is a news‑style deep dive into what happened between 5–7 December 2025, what the latest forecasts say, and what it all could mean for Copper Dec 25 futures.

Key Takeaways for Copper Dec 25 (HGZ25)

Price near record zone: COMEX Copper Dec 25 (HGZ25) settled around $5.382 per lb on 5 December, up about 1.7% on the day, with a range between $5.2695 and $5.4000 and volume of 756 contracts. ^[2]
Front‑month copper at fresh highs: Benchmark LME three‑month copper hit an all‑time intraday high near $11,705 per tonne on Friday, 5 December, leaving it up more than 30% year‑to‑date and roughly 3.8–4.3% on the week. ^[3]
Citi’s bullish call: Citigroup now expects copper to average $13,000 per tonne in Q2 2026, with a bull‑case of $15,000, citing structural supply deficits linked to the energy transition and artificial intelligence (AI). ^[4]
Tariff & inventory worries: Commerzbank highlights fresh all‑time highs around $11,540 per tonne on fears that the US could extend 50% import tariffs to refined copper, potentially draining LME inventories further in favour of COMEX. ^[5]
Technical tone still bullish: Technical research site StockInvest upgrades copper (HGUSD) to a “Strong Buy”, projecting a roughly 12% upside over the next three months, with a 90% range between $5.75 and $6.15. ^[6]
Structural story intensifies: Analysts from Tom’s Hardware, FXEmpire and major banks are converging on a narrative of long‑term deficits, driven by AI data‑centre build‑out, grid upgrades and EVs, even as big miners like Rio Tinto and Glencore plan multi‑year expansions. ^[7]

Copper Dec 25 Futures at a Glance

The Copper Dec 25 contract is the December 2025 High Grade Copper future traded on COMEX:

Symbol: HGZ25
Contract size:25,000 pounds of high‑grade copper
Tick size: $0.0005 per lb (=$12.50 per contract)
Exchange: COMEX
First notice date: 28 November 2025
Expiration date: 29 December 2025 (about three weeks away as of 5 December) ^[8]

On 5 December 2025, data from Investing.com showed: ^[9]

Last price (Dec 25): $5.3820/lb
Daily change: +$0.0905
Intraday high / low: $5.4000 / $5.2695
Volume: 756 contracts

Barchart’s performance metrics underline how strong the move has been:

1‑month performance: +7.94%
3‑month performance: +18.26%
52‑week move: from a low of $4.1395 to a high of $6.0215, leaving Dec 25 still up over 25% year‑on‑year. ^[10]

Across the broader COMEX copper curve, the Dec 25 contract is trading close to cash and early‑2026 months, reflecting a tight, largely backwardated market that mirrors the record‑high LME structure. ^[11]

An Associated Press futures bulletin for Friday, 5 December, also underscores just how active copper trading is right now: total copper futures volume on New York’s copper market was reported at 64,929 contracts, up from 56,046 the previous day, with open interest around 248,659 contracts despite a small day‑on‑day decline – signs of heavy repositioning into year‑end. ^[12]

What Moved Copper Between 5–7 December 2025?

1. Citi’s Upgrade and a New All‑Time High

The main headline in copper over Friday 5 December and Saturday 6 December was simple: Citi turned more bullish, and the market exploded higher.

A Reuters‑sourced piece carried by Energy News and Hellenic Shipping News reports that: ^[13]

LME three‑month copper jumped as much as 2.2% intraday, touching a record high near $11,705 per tonne.
By late morning London time, it was still up around 1.4–1.9%, trading near $11,610–11,670.
Copper is now up more than 30% in 2025, with the latest week adding roughly 3.8–4.3%.

The spark: Citigroup’s price upgrade. Citi now sees copper: ^[14]

Holding firm into early 2026.
Averaging $13,000 per tonne in Q2 2026, versus $12,000 previously.
With a bull‑case target of $15,000 per tonne (up from $14,000).

The bank emphasises:

Macro‑fund buying as investors price in a soft landing for the US economy and a looming Federal Reserve rate cut expected as early as next week. ^[15]
A growing structural supply shortage, as mine output fails to keep up with demand from the energy transition and AI‑related infrastructure.
Stockpiling in the US and COMEX–LME arbitrage that encourages metal flows from LME warehouses into American storage, tightening availability elsewhere. ^[16]

Analysts at SP Angel quoted in the Reuters piece described copper as a “slow burn on the upside”, with large funds “getting behind it because they can see shortages developing.” ^[17]

2. Tariff Fears and Commerzbank’s Warning

On 6 December 2025, Commerzbank’s latest metals note – summarised by iX Broker – added fuel to the rally. ^[18]

Key points from that analysis:

Copper prices hit a new all‑time high around $11,540 per tonne, driven by fears US import tariffs on copper could be extended to refined copper sooner than previously signalled.
Earlier in 2025, the US initially exempted refined copper from the full 50% tariffs, targeting semi‑finished products instead. That caused copper priced on COMEX to spike while LME stocks temporarily recovered as metal was shipped into the US ahead of the policy change.
Now markets worry that the tariff regime could be broadened or brought forward, prompting fresh demand to pull metal out of LME warehouses toward COMEX again.
The US currently covers only about 50% of its copper demand from domestic supply, according to USGS figures cited by Commerzbank – leaving it heavily exposed to import policy changes. ^[19]

The takeaway: tariffs are no longer an abstract 2027 story – traders are increasingly trading the possibility of earlier, more extensive measures, which is supportive for US‑linked contracts like Copper Dec 25.

3. Mercuria’s LME Grab and Short‑Squeeze Risk

Behind the price action of 5–7 December sits an important move earlier in the week. On 4 December, Reuters reported that commodity trader Mercuria had cancelled or earmarked for delivery more than 40,000 tonnes of copper from LME warehouses in South Korea and Taiwan, worth around $460 million at current prices. ^[20]

According to that report:

The withdrawn metal represented roughly 35% of total LME copper stocks on 2 December.
LME copper stocks were already historically low, with much of the remaining tonnage now heading to the US, where prices trade at a premium amid tariff uncertainty. ^[21]
The cash‑to‑three‑month spread (a key measure of tightness) surged to about $88 per tonne earlier in the week, a level consistent with acute near‑term supply stress and potential short‑squeeze risk as the 17 December LME settlement approaches. ^[22]

For Copper Dec 25 on COMEX, this backdrop translates into:

Stronger backwardation between nearby and later‑dated contracts.
A greater premium for immediate delivery, impacting calendar spreads and roll strategies as HGZ25 approaches expiry.

4. AI Data Centres and Long‑Term Copper Deficits

The structural demand story that underpins these price spikes sharpened further in coverage from Tom’s Hardware and other tech‑adjacent outlets in early December. ^[23]

Tom’s Hardware reports:

The International Energy Agency (IEA) now estimates that existing and planned copper mines will meet only about 70% of projected demand by 2035, even before any additional aggressive climate or AI scenarios.
Analysts at Wood Mackenzie see a refined copper deficit of about 304,000 tonnes already in 2025, widening into 2026.
Large AI data centres typically require 27–33 tonnes of copper per megawatt. Facilities ranging from 50–150 MW can consume thousands of tonnes each, not counting the upstream grid upgrades. ^[24]
Average mine ore grades have fallen around 40% since 1991, meaning more rock must be processed per tonne of metal, raising costs and limiting quick supply responses.
High‑profile projects like Resolution Copper in Arizona and several expansions in Chile, Peru and Indonesia face legal, environmental or community delays, pushing meaningful new supply a decade or more into the future. ^[25]

FXEmpire’s “The Copper Boom Has Arrived – And It’s Poised to Outshine Gold” on 5 December echoes this, arguing that: ^[26]

Copper has become the “circulatory system” of the AI economy, essential for power delivery, cooling systems and high‑density wiring.
The copper‑to‑gold ratio is at its most extreme in about 50 years, with copper heavily discounted relative to gold despite growing strategic importance.
Analysts at The Gold & Silver Club foresee structural deficits stretching deep into the 2030s, especially as EVs and grid projects double global copper demand toward ~50 million tonnes per year vs ~25 million today.

Taken together, these pieces frame Copper Dec 25 not just as a year‑end contract, but as a window into a much longer‑running supply‑demand collision.

5. Miners Reposition for the “Doctor Copper” Decade

While futures prices react day‑to‑day, large miners are quietly repositioning for a world where copper is structurally scarce:

Rio Tinto used its early‑December strategy day to raise its 2025 copper production forecast and target about 1 million tonnes per year by 2030, emphasising the ramp‑up of its Oyu Tolgoi project in Mongolia. ^[27]
Glencore announced a major restructuring to focus more aggressively on copper, aiming for 1.6 million tonnes annually by 2035 but cutting its 2026 copper forecast to about 840,000 tonnes due to issues at its Collahuasi mine in Chile – underscoring how fragile near‑term supply remains. ^[28]

These conflicting forces – long‑term capacity expansion but short‑term production downgrades – are an important backdrop for traders calibrating risk on the December 2025 contract.

Latest Forecasts and Analyses (5–7 December 2025)

Big‑Bank and Institutional Outlooks

Citi (5–6 December 2025): ^[29]

Base case: Copper continues to climb into early 2026, averaging $13,000 per tonne in Q2 2026.
Bull case: Prices could spike to $15,000 per tonne, especially if supply disruptions persist alongside aggressive AI and green‑energy spending.
Drivers: Macro‑fund flows, expectation of Fed rate cuts, and stockpiling tied to COMEX–LME arbitrage.

UBS (late November, referenced widely in December commentaries): ^[30]

Lifted its March 2026 copper forecast to $11,500 per tonne.
Raised June and September 2026 targets to $12,000 and $12,500, and introduced a new December 2026 target of $13,000.
Cited persistent mine disruptions and strong long‑term demand from electrification and clean energy.

Commerzbank:

Previously raised its 2025 average copper price target to about $10,500 per tonne from $9,600, flagging a “poor outlook” for copper supply relative to demand. ^[31]
Its 6 December note warns that tariff uncertainty and LME inventory depletion leave risks tilted to further upside spikes, even after the latest all‑time highs. ^[32]

Market‑Facing Analysis and Sentiment

FXEmpire / The Gold & Silver Club (5 December): ^[33]

Describe copper as “the trade of the month – and potentially the trade of the decade.”
Emphasise that retail traders remain fixated on gold, while institutional capital is already rotating into copper futures, miners and physical supply.
Highlight the copper‑to‑gold ratio as flashing one of its strongest long‑term buy signals for copper in half a century.

StockInvest (HGUSD) (updated 5 December): ^[34]

Rates copper as a “Strong Buy candidate”, noting that:
- Price closed $5.45 on 5 December (+1.85% on the day).
- Copper has risen 9.18% in the past two weeks, with rising volume – a bullish technical sign.
- Their model projects a 12.27% rise over the next three months, with a 90% probability that prices will fall between $5.75 and $6.15.
Key supports sit around $5.14 and $4.89, with a recommended stop‑loss near $5.23 for short‑term traders.

Bloomberg – “Silver, Copper Eclipse Gold as Top Metals Bets on Supply Fears” (7 December):

While the full article is paywalled, publicly available summaries note that since gold’s record high on 20 October, the metal has traded mostly sideways, while silver has gained over 11% to its own record and copper is up almost 9%. Institutional flows increasingly favour silver and copper as the primary supply‑squeeze trades heading into 2026. ^[35]

What It Means for Copper Dec 25 (HGZ25) Traders

Contract Positioning and Expiry Dynamics

With first notice date already passed (28 November) and expiration on 29 December 2025, HGZ25 is now deep into its delivery window. ^[36]

Implications:

Speculative longs who do not intend to take delivery are actively rolling into 2026 contracts, which can exaggerate short‑term volatility in Dec 25 spreads.
Physical users with real copper needs may be increasingly motivated to hold into expiry, especially given low LME stocks and US tariff uncertainty. ^[37]

Barchart’s key technical reference levels for HGZ25 as of 5 December are: ^[38]

Last price: $5.3820
First support: ~$5.3010
Second support: ~$5.2200
First resistance: ~$5.4810
Second resistance: ~$5.5620

Traders are currently navigating a tight corridor between strong support just above $5.30 and resistance in the mid‑$5.50s, with the contract still well below its 52‑week high around $6.02.

Scenario Map for Dec 25 Futures (Not Investment Advice)

Given the latest news and forecasts, a simplified scenario framework for HGZ25 over the remainder of December looks something like this:

Bullish extension (supply squeeze persists)
- US tariff rhetoric intensifies; further LME withdrawals show up in weekly data.
- Fed delivers a dovish cut, weakening the dollar and supporting commodities. ^[39]
- In this case, spot and nearby copper could re‑test or exceed July’s $6.02/lb high, pulling Dec 25 up with it.
Sideways consolidation (markets digest the rally)
- Citi’s and UBS’s bullish forecasts keep dips shallow, but no major new supply shock or policy twist emerges. ^[40]
- HGZ25 oscillates roughly in a $5.20–$5.60 band into expiry, with volatility concentrated in calendar spreads rather than outright price.
Downside correction (macro scare or policy surprise)
- A firmer‑than‑expected Fed or a negative macro surprise prompts position trimming across commodities.
- Some of the recent fund inflows reverse, potentially sending Dec 25 back toward support near $5.00–$5.10, though structural deficits and tight inventories may limit deeper declines. ^[41]

These are illustrative scenarios, not predictions or personalised advice. Any actual trading decision should factor in your risk tolerance, time horizon and access to margin.

Quick FAQ: Copper Dec 25 Futures

What exactly is Copper Dec 25 (HGZ25)?

Copper Dec 25 is the December 2025 High Grade Copper futures contract traded on COMEX:

Symbol: HGZ25
Unit: 25,000 lbs of high‑grade copper
Tick value: $12.50 per contract ($0.0005 per lb)
Expiration: 29 December 2025 ^[42]

It’s a key benchmark for US‑dollar copper pricing around year‑end 2025.

How does COMEX Copper Dec 25 relate to LME copper prices?

COMEX contracts like HGZ25 are quoted in US dollars per pound, while LME copper trades in US dollars per tonne.
At current levels near $11,600–11,700 per tonne on the LME, prices translate to a bit above $5.20 per lb, broadly consistent with COMEX values around $5.35–$5.45 once timing and currency differences are considered. ^[43]
Arbitrage between these markets – especially around tariffs and warehouse stocks – has been a central driver of this week’s rally. ^[44]

Why is everyone talking about AI when discussing copper?

AI matters for copper because:

Large AI data centres need massive power and cooling, both of which are copper‑intensive.
Estimates suggest 27–33 tonnes of copper per megawatt of capacity; hyperscale sites of 100+ MW can consume thousands of tonnes each. ^[45]
Combined with EVs, grid upgrades and renewables, this pushes long‑term copper demand far beyond what existing and planned mines can deliver, driving the structural deficit narrative that underpins many of the new price forecasts. ^[46]

Is Copper Dec 25 a buy right now?

From a news and research standpoint:

The fundamental and technical tone is clearly bullish, with:
- Citi, UBS and Commerzbank all revising forecasts higher. ^[47]
- Technical services like StockInvest flagging copper as a “Strong Buy” with an expected 3‑month gain around 12%. ^[48]
However, Copper Dec 25 is very close to expiry and trading in a highly volatile, supply‑constrained environment where news on tariffs, mine disruptions or Fed policy can move prices sharply in either direction. ^[49]

This article is for information and education only and should not be taken as personalised investment advice. Anyone considering trading HGZ25 or related products should assess their own financial situation and, ideally, consult a qualified adviser.