Costco (COST) Stock: December 1, 2025 News, Analyst Targets and 2026 Outlook

Published: December 1, 2025 – Ticker: Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST)

Costco Wholesale Corporation’s stock continues to sit at the crossroads of “elite business, elite valuation.” As of late morning on December 1, 2025, Costco (COST) trades around $908 per share, down about 0.6% on the day, giving the warehouse giant a market capitalization of roughly $402 billion. The shares change hands at about 50 times trailing earnings, with a dividend yield just under 0.6%. ^[1]

Yet despite the rich valuation, Wall Street remains broadly optimistic. New analyst calls today, combined with strong membership-fee growth and steady earnings forecasts into 2026–2027, are keeping Costco firmly on the watchlist of growth and quality-focused investors.

Costco stock today: price, performance and recent returns

According to real-time data, Costco is trading near $908 with a -0.6% move intraday on December 1, 2025. The stock’s 52‑week range runs from about $872 to $1,078, underscoring that shares are currently closer to the bottom of their one‑year band after a pullback. ^[2]

Key snapshot metrics:

Market cap: ~$402 billion
Revenue (TTM): $275.2 billion
Net income (TTM): $8.1 billion
EPS (TTM): $18.21
Trailing P/E: ~49.9
Forward P/E: ~45.2
Dividend: $5.20 annually (~0.57% yield) ^[3]

Over the longer term, Costco has been a massive wealth creator. One recent Motley Fool piece notes that Costco shares have climbed about 135% over the past five years, vastly outpacing the broader market. ^[4]

But 2025 is unusual: another Motley Fool/Nasdaq analysis points out that Costco is on track for its worst performance relative to the S&P 500 in 23 years. The S&P 500 is up roughly 14% year‑to‑date, while Costco shares are down a few percent, a reversal from their usual pattern of outperformance. ^[5]

In other words: fantastic long‑term track record, but a more muted, even disappointing, year relative to the index.

December 1, 2025 news: fresh analyst calls and big money flows

Telsey Advisory Group reaffirms bullish Costco call

The headline move today is on the analyst side. Telsey Advisory Group, led by analyst Joseph Feldman, has reaffirmed its “Outperform” rating on Costco and maintained a 12‑month price target of $1,100. ^[6]

Quiver Quantitative’s breakdown of recent analyst targets shows just how bullish the Street remains:

Telsey Advisory Group: $1,100 (Dec 1, 2025)
BTIG: $1,115 (initiated with “Buy,” October 15, 2025)
Argus Research: $1,200 (Buy, September 29, 2025)
J.P. Morgan: $1,025 (November 6, 2025)
Oppenheimer: $1,050 (November 3, 2025)
Mizuho: $950 (Neutral, October 9, 2025)
Citigroup: $990 (September 29, 2025) ^[7]

The median 6‑month target sits around $1,033, implying low‑ to mid‑teens upside from current levels. ^[8]

Street consensus: strong business, rich but supported valuation

Different platforms paint a consistent picture:

StockAnalysis.com:
- 26 covering analysts, consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average 12‑month price target: $1,069.44 – about 18% upside from ~$908. ^[9]
GuruFocus:
- Average 1‑year target around $1,055, with a high of $1,218 and low of $627. Based on a recent price just above $910, that suggests roughly 15% upside on average. ^[10]
MarketBeat:
- Consensus rating “Moderate Buy”, average price target ~$1,025.07 (18 Buys, 13 Holds). ^[11]

Put together, Wall Street’s base case is that Costco’s stock still has mid‑teens upside over the next year, despite already being one of the priciest retailers in the world.

Institutional investors reshuffle their Costco exposure

December 1 also brought a flurry of 13F‑driven headlines as big funds report their Costco moves:

Shelton Capital Management
- Increased its Costco stake by 2.6%, buying 1,580 shares in Q2.
- Now holds 61,272 shares worth about $60.7 million, making Costco Shelton’s 11th‑largest holding. ^[12]
VestGen Advisors LLC
- Cut its position by 18.9%, selling 985 shares to end Q2 with 4,221 shares worth roughly $4.16 million. ^[13]
Solidarity Wealth LLC
- Slashed its position by 71.3%, selling 2,216 shares, and now holds 892 shares valued near $883,000. ^[14]
Fisher Asset Management LLC
- Trimmed its Costco stake by 0.7%, selling 20,824 shares in Q2.
- Still owns 3,110,415 shares worth about $3.08 billion; Costco is 1.2% of the fund’s portfolio and its 21st‑largest holding. ^[15]

Across these reports, roughly 68–69% of Costco’s float is now owned by institutions and hedge funds, underscoring the stock’s status as a core holding in many large portfolios. ^[16]

Quiver Quantitative’s hedge fund dashboard adds more color: 1,787 institutional investors increased their Costco positions and 1,831 decreased them in recent quarters, highlighting active but balanced repositioning rather than a stampede in either direction. ^[17]

Insider activity: steady selling from a small insider base

Quiver’s insider‑trading data shows 11 open‑market insider sales and zero open‑market insider purchases over the past six months, all by executives, not rank‑and‑file employees. ^[18]

MarketBeat’s institutional reports broadly corroborate this, noting that insiders have sold around 9,720 Costco shares (roughly $9 million worth) in the last 90 days, leaving insider ownership at a very modest 0.18% of shares outstanding. ^[19]

Insider selling at large, mature companies is common (taxes, diversification, personal liquidity), but the lack of insider buying at these valuation levels is something conservative investors may keep in the back of their minds.

Costco’s membership engine: 2025 results and what comes next

If Costco’s valuation is the “problem,” the membership model is the reason investors wrestle with selling it.

2025: big jump in membership fee income

A recent Zacks analysis (published via Nasdaq) notes that Costco ended fiscal 2025 with a 14% year‑over‑year increase in membership fee income in Q4, to about $1.724 billion. ^[20]

Key membership metrics from that report:

Paid memberships: Up 6.3% to 81 million.
Executive members: Up 9.3% to 38.7 million, now 47.7% of total paid members but driving about 74.2% of global sales. ^[21]

Earlier in fiscal 2025, Zacks highlighted that Q3 membership fee income rose 10.4% to $1.24 billion, while paid memberships climbed 6.8% to 79.6 million. ^[22]

Another recent Motley Fool article adds that membership income for the full fiscal year increased about 10% to $5.3 billion, reflecting a long‑running trend of steady fee growth. ^[23]

Renewal rates: still elite, but showing some pressure

The same Nasdaq/Zacks piece flags a small but closely watched wobble:

Global renewal rate slipped from 90.2% to 89.8%.
U.S. & Canada renewal rate dipped about 40 basis points to 92.3%. ^[24]

Management has largely blamed the dip on:

A higher mix of online sign‑ups (including promotional campaigns like Groupon).
Faster growth in younger, more digital‑first members, whose renewal behavior is still maturing. ^[25]

To counteract this, Costco is:

Pushing auto‑renewal more aggressively.
Offering extended warehouse hours for Executive members.
Providing perks like a $10 monthly Instacart credit for certain members. ^[26]

Zacks currently expects membership fee income to grow about 9.1% in fiscal 2026, on top of roughly 10.3% growth in fiscal 2025—a crucial driver of earnings since membership fees are high‑margin and relatively predictable. ^[27]

Price hikes and why they matter

Costco last raised membership prices in September 2024, lifting annual fees by $5 for Gold Star and $10 for Executive memberships. According to recent MarketBeat and Zacks commentary, the hike produced:

Minimal attrition, with global renewal still around 89.8% and U.S./Canada around 92–93%.
A 14% jump in membership income in Q4, more than double the prior year’s pace for that quarter. ^[28]

Those numbers are a key part of the bull case: Costco can periodically nudge fees higher without alienating its loyal customer base, driving disproportionate profit growth relative to reported sales.

Earnings and growth outlook: into 2026 and 2027

Historical performance: steady, predictable compounding

MarketScreener and StockAnalysis data show Costco’s growth engine has been remarkably consistent:

Net sales rose from about $254.5 billion in FY 2024 to $275.2 billion in FY 2025, roughly 8.2% growth. ^[29]
Net income increased from around $7.37 billion to $8.10 billion, just under 10% growth. ^[30]

Consensus forecasts: mid‑single‑digit sales, low double‑digit EPS growth

Looking ahead:

MarketScreener estimates FY 2026 net sales at about $296.8 billion and 2027 at $319.1 billion, implying 7.8% and 7.5% annual growth, respectively. Net income is projected to rise to roughly $8.9 billion in 2026 and $9.8 billion in 2027, around 10% annual growth. ^[31]
A recent Zacks report puts the consensus for the current financial year at +7.7% sales growth and +11% EPS growth, year over year. ^[32]
Nasdaq data suggests a consensus FY 2026 EPS forecast around $20 per share, up from today’s trailing EPS of about $18.21. ^[33]
StockAnalysis’ longer‑term view: 5‑year revenue growth around 6.7% annually, with EPS growth around 8.9% per year. ^[34]

The near‑term catalyst: Costco’s next earnings report is scheduled for December 11, 2025, after the market close. High expectations around membership trends, comparable‑store sales and any hints of future fee changes mean this call could be unusually consequential for the stock. ^[35]

Valuation check: is Costco too expensive?

Valuation is the lightning rod in every Costco conversation.

Multiples vs peers and history

At today’s price:

Trailing P/E: ~49.9x
Forward P/E: ~45.2x
Dividend yield: ~0.57% (annual dividend $5.20, payout ratio ~28%). ^[36]

MarketScreener’s forecasted valuation for the next two fiscal years:

2026 P/E: ~45.5x
2027 P/E: ~41.3x
2026–2027 dividend yield: ~0.59%–0.62%. ^[37]

Zacks, via Nasdaq, pegs Costco’s forward 12‑month P/E near 44.1, significantly above the industry average around 29.8, and assigns Costco a Value Score of “D” with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)—essentially saying: great company, but fully (or over‑) valued. ^[38]

MarketBeat’s Fisher Asset and Solidarity Wealth notes show similar numbers: a P/E just above 50, a market cap near $405 billion, and a quarterly dividend of $1.30 ($5.20 annually). ^[39]

What commentators are saying

A Nasdaq‑hosted Motley Fool article argues Costco’s forward earnings multiple is now higher than some high‑growth AI leaders like Nvidia and Broadcom, and concludes that Costco isn’t a particularly attractive buy for 2026 because the multiple could cap returns, despite stellar operations. ^[40]
Another Motley Fool piece, “1 Reason I’m Never Selling Costco Stock,” counters from a different angle: yes, the stock trades at almost 50 times trailing earnings, but membership economics and a near‑flawless long‑term growth record (positive revenue growth in 33 of the last 34 fiscal years) justify a premium for patient shareholders. ^[41]

In short: everyone agrees Costco is a world‑class operator. The debate is entirely about how much you’re willing to pay for that quality and stability.

Key risks and catalysts to watch

Even for a defensive retailer, there are real swing factors investors should monitor.

1. Membership renewal and engagement

The slight downtick in renewal rates has not broken the Costco model, but it bears watching. Persistent weakness here—especially among younger or digital‑first members—would threaten the high‑margin membership revenue stream that underpins much of Costco’s profitability. ^[42]

2. Consumer spending and macro environment

Costco historically benefits when consumers “trade down” from more expensive retailers, but a pronounced slowdown in discretionary spending can still hit big‑ticket categories like electronics, appliances and seasonal goods. Recent commentary from analysts highlights that while Costco is navigating the current environment well, growth is moderating versus the post‑pandemic boom. ^[43]

3. Margin pressures and supply‑chain dynamics

Costco’s model rests on razor‑thin merchandise margins; it makes most of its profit from membership fees, not product mark‑ups. That gives it limited room to absorb sustained cost increases without either raising prices (and risking member pushback) or accepting lower operating margins. The Kirkland private‑label brand and well‑managed supply chain have helped so far, but this is always a key watchpoint. ^[44]

4. Legal and reputational issues

Recent headlines have included:

A class‑action lawsuit alleging Kirkland tequila was mislabeled.
Recalls of nearly 1 million bottles of Kirkland prosecco due to shattering risk. ^[45]

These kinds of issues are common for large retailers and typically don’t alter the long‑term investment case, but they can create short‑term costs and reputational noise.

5. Upcoming earnings (Dec. 11, 2025)

With the stock priced for excellence, the December 11 earnings release is a crucial near‑term catalyst. Investors will be hyper‑focused on:

Membership fee growth and renewal rates.
Comparable‑store sales (especially ex‑gas and ex‑currency).
Any commentary on future membership fee hikes or expanded member benefits. ^[46]

A clean beat and upbeat guidance could reinforce the premium multiple; any stumble might invite another leg down as the market reassesses growth versus valuation.

Is Costco stock a buy, hold or sell for 2026?

Nothing here is personal investment advice, but we can synthesize what today’s news and current data suggest for different types of investors.

For long‑term, quality‑focused investors

The bull case:

Costco’s business remains exceptionally strong, with mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit revenue growth and low double‑digit EPS growth projected through at least 2027. ^[47]
Membership fees continue to grow at high single‑ to low double‑digit rates, even after price hikes. ^[48]
Customer loyalty and renewal rates are among the highest in retail, even after a small recent dip. ^[49]
The Street’s average price targets (roughly $1,025–$1,070) imply mid‑teens upside over 12 months, with the most bullish calls up near $1,200. ^[50]

If your horizon is many years and you value business quality over near‑term valuation, today’s pullback versus the stock’s 52‑week high may look like a reasonable—though not bargain‑basement—entry point.

For valuation‑sensitive or income‑oriented investors

The bear/neutral case:

At ~45–50x earnings and a sub‑0.6% yield, Costco is priced like a high‑growth tech name, not a mature retailer. ^[51]
Multiple commentators argue that even modest deceleration in growth could compress the P/E, leading to mediocre returns even if the business keeps performing well. ^[52]
Comparable dividend payers like Coca‑Cola and PepsiCo, also highlighted by Motley Fool as alternative 2026 picks, offer much higher yields at lower valuations. ^[53]

If you prioritize yield or a strong margin of safety on valuation, Costco may feel more like a hold or “watch and wait” rather than an obvious buy.

For short‑term traders

Momentum has cooled: Costco is underperforming the S&P 500 in 2025 and trading below its 200‑day moving average, according to recent technical commentary. ^[54]
The December 11 earnings release could be a volatility event; options markets and trading commentary already highlight valuation vs. expectations as the key battleground. ^[55]

Short‑term traders will likely treat Costco as a catalyst‑driven trade around earnings, not a simple trend‑following play.

Bottom line

As of December 1, 2025, Costco Wholesale Corporation remains:

Operationally excellent, with powerful membership economics and consistent growth.
Financially solid, with high renewal rates, expanding membership income and healthy earnings forecasts into 2026 and 2027.
Valuation‑challenged, trading at one of the highest multiples in large‑cap retail, which could constrain returns if growth merely stays “good” instead of “spectacular.”

For investors, the core question isn’t whether Costco is a good business—it clearly is—but whether you’re comfortable paying almost 50 times earnings for that quality today.

References