Data and news current as of December 11, 2025. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
Costco stock today: near a fresh low, still on a rich valuation
Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) heads into its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report (after the close on Thursday, December 11, 2025) trading around $874 per share, close to a new 52‑week low just above $871 and well below its recent peak near $1,078. [1]
That puts COST roughly 19% below its 52‑week high and slightly negative for 2025, even though the stock has delivered well over 100% total return over the past five years, handily beating the S&P 500. [2]
Despite the pullback, Costco still trades at a steep earnings multiple:
- Trailing P/E around 48–50x, per multiple data providers. [3]
- Forward 12‑month P/E in the mid‑40s, compared with roughly 30x for its retail peer group and the low‑20s for the S&P 500. [4]
That premium valuation is at the center of nearly every recent bullish and bearish note on COST.
What’s happened since November 21, 2025? A quick timeline
From November 21, 2025 onward, the story around Costco stock has evolved from “expensive but unstoppable compounder” to “great business under pressure from tariffs, valuation and slowing comps.”
Here’s how sentiment has shifted:
November 21–23: “Tough year, great business”
- On Nov. 21, a widely circulated Motley Fool article noted that Costco shares had slipped into the red for 2025 even as the underlying warehouse business “continues to thrive,” pointing to solid revenue growth and resilient comparable sales. The piece argued that Costco’s membership model and competitive moat remain intact, but that the stock price left “little cushion” given the rich P/E. [5]
- Follow‑up pieces on Nov. 22–23 highlighted Costco’s membership‑based business, steady same‑store sales gains and the long track record of market‑beating returns, concluding that the long‑term story is attractive but the valuation demands patience (and ideally, pullbacks). [6]
November 24: Membership fees surge — and so do questions
On Nov. 24, Zacks published a deep dive on Costco’s membership economics:
- Q4 FY 2025 membership fee income jumped 14% to $1.724 billion, helped by last year’s fee hike in the U.S. and Canada and a growing member base. [7]
- Paid memberships grew 6.3% to 81 million, and Executive members rose 9.3% to 38.7 million, representing nearly 74% of global sales. [8]
- Even excluding the fee increase and currency impacts, membership income still rose 7%, underscoring the underlying strength of the model. [9]
But the same article highlighted an emerging concern: renewal rates ticked down:
- Worldwide renewal rate slipped to 89.8% from 90.2% in the prior quarter.
- U.S. and Canada renewal rate eased to 92.3%, down 40 basis points sequentially. [10]
Management and analysts attributed the dip largely to a surge in digital sign‑ups (including a large Groupon campaign), whose renewal rates tend to be a bit lower, and stressed that overall membership trends remain healthy and skew younger — nearly half of new members are under 40. [11]
This set the stage for a recurring debate: is the slight renewal slippage a temporary mix issue or an early sign of membership saturation?
December 3–5: Strong November sales, but growth cools and the stock turns negative for the year
On Dec. 3, Costco released its official November sales report:
- November net sales: $23.64 billion, up 8.1% year‑over‑year.
- Net sales for the 12‑week first quarter ended Nov. 23: $65.98 billion, up 8.2% from $60.99 billion a year earlier.
- Q1 total comparable sales rose 6.4%, including 5.9% in the U.S., 6.5% in Canada and 8.8% in other international markets.
- Digitally enabled comps rose an impressive 20.5% in the quarter. [12]
Those are robust numbers, but several commentators focused on slight deceleration:
- MarketWatch reported that Costco’s stock turned negative for 2025 after investors reacted to slowing U.S. sales trends and softer November comp growth versus October. [13]
- A Zacks / Nasdaq summary and later Motley Fool pieces emphasized that November’s adjusted comparable sales growth was a bit lower than October’s, feeding worries that high expectations may be colliding with more “normal” growth. [14]
On Dec. 6, the article “3 Reasons Costco Stock Is Struggling” crystallized the bear case:
- Sales growth, while solid, is no longer matching the stock’s valuation. Fiscal 2025 revenue grew about 8%, with high‑single‑digit underlying comp growth — strong, but showing mild deceleration.
- Near‑term catalysts are limited. The big membership fee increase is already behind Costco, and historically these hikes only happen roughly every five and a half years.
- The valuation is extremely rich. Even after the pullback, the article pointed out that Costco trades at a P/E well above faster‑growing tech giants, raising the bar for future results. [15]
December 8–10: Special dividend odds, tariff lawsuit and earnings previews
In the week of Dec. 8, several new themes hit the COST story:
- Special dividend speculation.
24/7 Wall St. examined whether Costco might announce another special dividend on Dec. 11, noting the company’s history of large one‑off payouts (such as the $15 per share special dividend in early 2024) and its strong cash position. However, the piece leaned toward low odds, arguing that management may prioritize growth investments and tariff uncertainty over another windfall. [16] - Tariff lawsuit against the Trump administration.
Costco filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade, challenging emergency tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and seeking refunds of duties paid on imported goods. Roughly one‑third of Costco’s U.S. sales are estimated to come from imports, with China representing about 8% of the mix. [17]
Analysts note that a favorable outcome could provide a meaningful margin tailwind, but the legal process and tariff backdrop introduce policy and earnings uncertainty just as Costco heads into its new fiscal year. [18] - Kirkland as the “crown jewel” in a tough macro year.
A Stocktwits feature highlighted how Kirkland Signature, Costco’s private label, is increasingly central to the value proposition. Kirkland sales penetration continues to rise and outpace overall sales, helping Costco retain members despite tariff‑driven pricing pressure and a difficult consumer backdrop. [19]
At the same time, multiple previews from Barron’s, Zacks, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Alphastreet and others converged on the same core view: fundamentals look strong, but expectations and valuation are high. [20]
Q1 FY 2026 earnings preview: what Wall Street expects tonight
Although exact estimates differ slightly across platforms, the current consensus for Costco’s fiscal Q1 2026 (quarter ended November 23, 2025) looks roughly like this:
- Revenue: Around $67–67.3 billion, up about 8% year‑over‑year. [21]
- Adjusted EPS: Roughly $4.25–$4.30, implying low‑double‑digit EPS growth versus last year. [22]
- Comps: Street models line up with Costco’s own November release — total comps around 6.4%, with U.S. comps in the high‑5% range, and digital comps in the low‑20s. [23]
Zacks notes that consensus Q1 revenue of $67.28 billion represents an 8.3% increase, while consensus EPS of $4.25 would be up 11.3% year‑on‑year. [24]
On the trading side:
- Options markets are pricing in roughly a 4% move in either direction following the report — larger than Costco’s historical average one‑day earnings move of about 2.5%, according to TipRanks and Trefis analysis of past earnings reactions. [25]
In other words, Wall Street expects healthy growth, but not a blow‑out quarter — and volatility if anything looks more likely than usual.
The engine under the hood: membership fees and renewal rates
Every Costco story sooner or later comes back to the membership model.
Membership fee income: still surging
Across Q4 FY 2025 and into Q1 FY 2026, analysts are aligned on a few points:
- Membership fee income is growing faster than sales.
Q4 FY 2025 membership fees rose 14% to $1.724 billion, with about half of that growth coming from the September 2024 fee hike in the U.S. and Canada and the rest from organic membership gains and upgrades. [26] - Executive members are increasingly dominant.
Executive members (who pay more but earn 2% back on most purchases) now represent roughly 47–48% of paid members and over 70% of Costco’s global sales, a powerful driver of higher‑margin, recurring fee income. [27] - Zacks expects membership fees to grow roughly high‑single to low‑double digits in Q1, supported by both the fee increase “anniversary” and continued member growth. [28]
Renewal rates: minor wobble, big debate
The October 27 Zacks piece on renewal rates — widely cited through November and December — flagged a small but closely watched dip:
- Worldwide renewal rate: 89.8%, down from 90.2% in the prior quarter.
- U.S./Canada renewal rate: 92.3%, 40 bps lower sequentially. [29]
The article attributed the change to:
- A higher mix of online sign‑ups, including promotional flows like Groupon.
- Online members tending to have slightly lower renewal rates than long‑time in‑warehouse sign‑ups.
It also highlighted some long‑term positives:
- Nearly half of new members are under 40, pointing to a younger cohort entering the Costco ecosystem.
- Q4 membership fee income still grew 14%, showing that the membership engine remains very healthy overall. [30]
Most analysts see the renewal dip as a temporary mix issue, but many will be watching tonight’s call for:
- Updated renewal metrics.
- Early data on how effectively auto‑renew and targeted digital campaigns are stabilizing younger, online‑first members. [31]
Tariffs, lawsuit and macro headwinds: the new wildcard for COST
Tariffs, government policy and Costco rarely used to be in the same sentence. That changed this month.
Costco’s tariff lawsuit
Costco has filed a federal lawsuit challenging emergency tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, arguing that the administration exceeded its legal authority and seeking refunds of duties paid on imported goods. [32]
Key points from recent coverage:
- About one‑third of U.S. sales are tied to imported goods, with China accounting for roughly 8% of Costco’s revenue mix, making tariffs a material cost factor. [33]
- Costco has tried to shield members by raising prices mainly on discretionary imports (such as flowers) while keeping prices on staples like produce as low as possible, absorbing some margin pressure. [34]
- FXEmpire and Seeking Alpha note that the lawsuit, together with ongoing tariff negotiations, could make 2026 margins noisier — but also that a victory or policy change might unlock a meaningful margin tailwind if refunds come through. [35]
Kirkland, SNAP and a “hard year” for retail
Stocktwits and other commentators frame 2025 as a difficult year for Costco’s stock, not its business:
- Kirkland Signature continues to gain share, with its sales penetration rising and outpacing overall company growth. During recent quarters, Kirkland sales once again grew faster than Costco’s total sales, helping offset tariff‑driven cost pressure. [36]
- Analysts point out that Costco has navigated tariffs, a long federal government shutdown and temporary pressure on SNAP benefits while still reporting mid‑single‑digit or better comps in the U.S. and double‑digit digital growth. [37]
The takeaway in many of these pieces: macro and policy noise may create earnings volatility and headline risk, but Costco’s value proposition and membership model remain powerful defenses.
Analyst ratings, price targets and long‑term forecasts
Despite a rough year for the share price, analyst sentiment on Costco remains broadly positive.
Street consensus today
Across major aggregators, you see a consistent picture:
- Rating:
- MarketBeat and other trackers show a “Moderate Buy” to “Buy” consensus, with roughly two‑thirds of analysts rating COST a Buy and the rest at Hold; virtually no one has an active Sell rating. [38]
- 12‑month price targets (from late Nov–early Dec data):
- MarketBeat: Average target $1,023, implying about 17% upside from ~$874. [39]
- StockAnalysis.com: Average target $1,071, ~22% upside. [40]
- TipRanks: Average around $1,092 (high ~ $1,218, low ~ $907), implying roughly 23% upside. [41]
- Investing.com: Average target $1,056.5, again calling for about 20% upside. [42]
- 24/7 Wall St: Median one‑year target $1,091.61, estimating ~22% upside and labeling the consensus view “Moderate Buy”. [43]
Different datasets use slightly different price snapshots, but the basic story is the same: Wall Street, on average, sees Costco stock 17–23% higher over 12 months, even after trimming targets from prior highs.
Quant and long‑term models
Algorithmic and quant‑driven forecasts are more conservative:
- CoinCodex, for example, projects Costco trading in a $856–$894 range for 2025, with an average price near $874 and low single‑digit returns versus current levels. Longer‑term paths out to 2030 vary widely and are based largely on technical patterns. [44]
- Some longer‑horizon pieces (such as an August 2025 Yahoo Finance article) note that a subset of bullish analysts could see Costco reaching $2,000 by 2030, assuming sustained mid‑single‑digit comps, international expansion and continued membership fee growth. [45]
As always, these projections are inherently uncertain and should be treated as scenarios, not guarantees.
The bull vs. bear case after the pullback
Putting the last three weeks of news together, here’s how the debate around COST looks right now.
The bullish view
Supporters of Costco stock point to:
- Best‑in‑class membership model. Paid memberships, Executive upgrades and a younger incoming member base keep fee income growing faster than sales. [46]
- Strong recent fundamentals. Q1 net sales up 8.2%, comps at 6.4%, and digital comps up 20.5% underscore that Costco is still gaining share even as many retailers struggle. [47]
- Kirkland Signature as a structural advantage. The private‑label brand continues to grow faster than the overall business, giving Costco both margin flexibility and customer loyalty in an inflation‑ and tariff‑heavy environment. [48]
- Defensive, cash‑rich profile. Analysts note Costco’s strong balance sheet, history of recurring special dividends, and shareholder‑friendly capital returns over the last decade. [49]
- Attractive long‑term risk/reward after a rare slump. Several commentaries, from Motley Fool to Barron’s and Zacks, argue that short‑term underperformance and a double‑digit drawdown from the highs may be giving long‑term investors a better entry into a high‑quality compounder. [50]
The bearish (or cautious) view
Skeptical voices emphasize:
- Valuation remains demanding. Even after falling to the mid‑$800s, Costco trades at a forward P/E in the mid‑40s and a trailing P/E near 50, well above peers and the broader market. [51]
- Growth is normalizing. Revenue is still growing at ~8%, and comps in the mid‑single digits are healthy — but they’re no longer accelerating. November comps were slightly softer than October, and some fear further deceleration in 2026. [52]
- Membership fee hike is already in the rearview. With Costco historically raising membership fees only every five‑plus years, that earnings lever is unlikely to be pulled again soon, leading to tougher comparisons a year from now. [53]
- Renewal rate wobble and digital mix. While still excellent, the dip in renewal rates to about 89.8% globally and 92.3% in the U.S. and Canada is a reminder that member behavior can shift, especially as more sign‑ups happen online. [54]
- Tariff and policy risk. The lawsuit against the Trump administration, along with ongoing tariff uncertainty and mentions of SNAP disruptions, adds a new layer of earnings and political risk that Costco hasn’t had to contend with in past cycles. [55]
In short: both sides agree Costco is a great business. The disagreement is over how much investors should pay for it and how smooth the next few years of earnings will be.
What to watch in tonight’s earnings report and call
If you follow COST, here are the key metrics and themes to watch as Q1 numbers hit:
- Comparable sales and traffic
- Are total and U.S. comps still in the mid‑single‑digit or better range, and has the small November slowdown persisted into late quarter? [56]
- How strong is traffic growth versus ticket size, especially in the U.S.? Analysts have highlighted traffic as a critical indicator of Costco’s value proposition. [57]
- Membership metrics
- Updated renewal rates globally and in the U.S./Canada.
- Growth in paid households and Executive members.
- Any color on younger member cohorts and the impact of auto‑renew and digital engagement. [58]
- Margins and SG&A
- E‑commerce and Kirkland
- Capital allocation and dividends
- Any announcement (or explicit non‑announcement) around a special dividend will be closely watched given the swirl of recent articles on the topic. [63]
- Updates on capex for warehouse expansion and logistics/technology investments, which compete directly with special dividends for excess cash.
- Guidance and tone for 2026
- While Costco doesn’t always give detailed annual guidance, any qualitative outlook on comps, margins and membership income will heavily influence whether investors see today’s P/E as justified.
What all this means for investors (without telling you what to do)
From November 21, 2025 to today, the consistent message from almost every serious analysis is:
- Costco the company is still performing very well.
- Costco the stock has finally run into gravity — tariffs, macro jitters, slightly slower growth and, above all, a lofty valuation.
If you’re a short‑term trader, tonight’s earnings look like a classic binary event: options imply an above‑average move, and the stock sits at a fresh 52‑week low with sentiment cautious but not outright bearish.
If you’re a long‑term investor, the decision is more about temperament:
- Bulls see a rare chance to buy a high‑quality, membership‑driven compounder after a year of underperformance, with analysts still projecting high‑single‑digit revenue growth and double‑digit EPS growth over the near term. [64]
- Skeptics worry that paying mid‑40s earnings multiples — even for a stellar operator — leaves little room for error if tariffs bite harder, comps slow or membership metrics soften. [65]
Either way, Costco’s Q1 2026 report and the follow‑up call are likely to be pivotal in setting the tone for COST stock into 2026.
Before acting on any of this, it’s important to:
- Consider your risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification,
- Read full filings and earnings transcripts when available, and
- Consult a qualified financial adviser for personalized advice.
References
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