Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) heads into its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report on Thursday, December 11, 2025, with investors focused on three big questions:
How strong are the underlying trends, what does the Trump-era tariff lawsuit mean, and will there be another special dividend or even a stock split? [1]
Below is a news-style, SEO-focused rundown of where Costco stock stands today, what Wall Street is expecting, and how recent analysis is framing the risk–reward.
Costco stock price today and recent performance
As of late-morning trading on December 10, 2025, Costco shares were changing hands around $884 per share, down about half a percent on the day. [2]
Key context:
- 52-week range: roughly $871.71 – $1,078.23, putting the stock about high-teens percent below its all‑time high. [3]
- Over the last 12 months, COST is down around 10–11%, even though earnings and sales have continued to grow. [4]
- A recent MarketWatch piece noted that Costco shares have turned negative for 2025, even after strong quarterly comps, as investors fret about a modest deceleration in U.S. sales growth. [5]
- A 24/7 Wall St. analysis highlighted that Costco stock is down just over 2% year to date, versus a roughly 17% gain for the S&P 500, marking one of its weakest relative showings in two decades. [6]
In other words, the business is strong, but the stock has cooled after years of outperformance and a run above $1,000 earlier in 2025. [7]
Latest Costco stock headlines as of December 10, 2025
News and analysis around Costco this week has clustered around earnings, tariffs, and the possibility of shareholder sweeteners:
- Earnings preview & valuation: GuruFocus expects Costco to report EPS of about $4.27 and ~8% revenue growth to roughly $67.1 billion, adding that the stock trades at a P/E around 48.6, close to a two‑year low, with a target price near $1,050 and a “Buy”‑leaning recommendation score. [8]
- Zacks / Nasdaq earnings call setup (Dec 9): Zacks, via Nasdaq, notes a consensus Q1 revenue estimate of $67.28 billion (+8.3% YoY) and EPS of $4.25 (+11.3%), with digitally enabled comps up 20.5% and membership fee income expected to grow double digits. They see a good chance of an earnings beat, with Costco carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a positive Earnings ESP. [9]
- Seeking Alpha earnings news (Dec 10): A pre‑earnings note pegs expectations at EPS of $4.27, with investors watching closely how tariffs and consumer spending trends affect margins and sales. [10]
- Tariff lawsuit coverage (Dec 7): The Washington Post reports Costco is the only major U.S. retailer to file suit seeking refunds of Trump‑era tariffs, arguing they weren’t clearly authorized under the emergency powers law. Analysts see the move as bold but consistent with Costco’s strong competitive and financial position. [11]
- Special dividend odds (Dec 8): 24/7 Wall St. reviews Costco’s special dividend history and concludes a new one on Dec. 11 is “unlikely” given underperformance vs. the market and moderating comps, despite a large cash pile. [12]
- Technical setup and split chatter (Dec 9): An Invezz/TradingView analysis notes Costco has dropped about 17% from February highs near $1,073 and has formed a falling wedge, often considered a bullish reversal pattern. Evercore analysts are cited as expecting management may eventually consider another special dividend and even a stock split if conditions are right. [13]
All of this sets the stage for a high‑stakes earnings day on December 11.
Costco’s underlying business: still firing on most cylinders
Despite the share price pullback, Costco’s operating results remain robust.
Fiscal 2025: strong year for sales and profits
From Costco’s Q4 and fiscal 2025 report (year ended August 31, 2025): [14]
- Net sales (FY 2025):
- $269.9 billion, up 8.1% from $249.6 billion in fiscal 2024.
- Membership fees:
- $5.32 billion, up about 10.3% year over year, benefiting from higher fees and more members.
- Total revenue:
- $275.2 billion (sales + membership fees).
- Net income:
- $8.10 billion, up from $7.37 billion, with diluted EPS rising to $18.21 from $16.56.
- Comparable sales (full year, ex‑gas & FX):
- Total company comps up 7.6%, with e‑commerce comps up 16.1%.
Costco closed the year with 914 warehouses worldwide, including 629 in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, and a growing footprint in Canada, Asia, and Europe. [15]
Membership model remains Costco’s superpower
Several recent articles highlight how the subscription-like membership model continues to underpin Costco’s resilience:
- A regional report on Costco’s annual filing notes U.S. renewal rates around 92% and global renewal rates about 90% at the end of fiscal 2025, even after a membership fee hike in September 2024. [16]
- Paid memberships keep growing: individual members climbed into the high‑60‑million range, with business memberships also trending higher. [17]
- A Zacks piece via Nasdaq points out that Costco is layering in new perks such as extended warehouse hours and a $10 monthly Instacart credit for Executive members, designed to offset fee increases and improve engagement. [18]
This recurring, high‑margin membership revenue gives Costco a funding base to keep prices low, invest in new warehouses, and weather economic or political shocks, including tariffs.
Q1 2026 earnings preview: what Wall Street expects
Costco will report fiscal Q1 2026 (quarter ended November 23, 2025) results and host its earnings call on December 11, 2025. [19]
Sales trends already disclosed
Costco has already released its Q1 sales update, providing an early look at demand: [20]
- Net sales for the 12‑week first quarter:$65.98 billion, up 8.2% from $60.99 billion a year ago.
- Comparable sales for the quarter:
- Total company: +6.4%
- U.S.: +5.9%
- Canada: +6.5%
- Other International: +8.8%
- Digitally enabled comps: about +20.5%, underscoring strong e‑commerce momentum.
November alone saw 8.1% sales growth and same‑store sales of +6.9%, giving investors confidence that Costco’s holiday season started on solid footing. [21]
Consensus Q1 numbers
Different services all cluster in a tight range:
- Revenue: roughly $67.0 – $67.3 billion, implying ~8% year‑over‑year growth. [22]
- EPS: around $4.25–$4.27, an increase of ~11% vs. last year’s Q1. [23]
Zacks highlights Costco’s small but positive “Earnings ESP” and a Zacks Rank #3, suggesting a decent statistical chance of another earnings beat, given the company’s modest but consistent history of topping estimates. [24]
Tariff lawsuit: a political wild card with real financial stakes
One of the biggest new storylines for Costco investors is its legal challenge to Trump‑era tariffs:
- Costco has filed a lawsuit at the U.S. Court of International Trade, seeking refunds on tariffs paid on imported goods, arguing that the tariffs weren’t clearly authorized under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. [25]
- Coverage in the Washington Post frames Costco as the only major U.S. retailer willing to go to court over the issue, attributing the move to its strong market position, loyal member base, and relatively low political risk. [26]
Analysts’ views, summarised across GuruFocus, Seeking Alpha news, and other previews: [27]
- If Costco wins and tariffs are refunded, margins in coming years could improve, potentially freeing up more room for capital returns (dividends, buybacks, or special distributions).
- If it loses, the status quo continues: tariffs remain a modest headwind to gross margins but likely not a thesis‑breaking problem given Costco’s scale and pricing power.
- The lawsuit may delay any near‑term special dividend until the company has clarity on tariff cash flows. [28]
For now, the lawsuit is more of an option on upside than an existential risk, but it adds uncertainty that investors will listen for on the Dec. 11 call.
Special dividend and stock split: what are the odds?
Costco has a rich history of occasional large special dividends (for example, $15 per share in 2023 and $10 in 2020) and has split its stock several times over the decades. [29]
Current commentary is mixed:
- Bearish on near‑term special dividend:
- 24/7 Wall St. argues a special dividend on Dec. 11 is unlikely, noting that Costco typically announces these during periods of above‑average share price and sales momentum, whereas 2025 has been a rare year of underperformance versus the S&P 500. [30]
- Slower multi‑year comparable sales growth and high but moderating valuations are also cited as reasons for management to be more conservative. [31]
- Bullish long‑term speculation:
- A TradingView/Invezz analysis notes Evercore analysts expect Costco might eventually announce another special dividend and possibly a stock split, especially given its strong cash position, history of generous shareholder returns, and the psychological impact of a four‑digit share price. [32]
- That same piece highlights a falling wedge pattern in the stock, often interpreted as a potential bullish reversal, with upside back toward the $1,000 level if earnings and guidance impress. [33]
The base‑case narrative across most research notes is:
Don’t count on a special dividend this week, but don’t rule out another one over the next 1–2 years if earnings, cash build, and the tariff situation cooperate.
Why the stock is struggling despite strong results
Multiple outlets have asked a simple question: if Costco’s fundamentals look so good, why is the stock down?
Recent analysis points to three main factors: [34]
- Decelerating U.S. sales growth (from very high levels)
- U.S. comps are still solid in the mid‑single digits, but the two‑year stacked growth rate has eased, and November trends were slightly slower than earlier in the year.
- Some investors worry that inflation‑pressured consumers are delaying discretionary purchases, even at Costco’s value‑oriented prices.
- High valuation vs. retail peers
- Costco’s forward 12‑month P/E sits around the low‑40s, versus roughly 30x for its retail industry group and mid‑20s for the S&P 500, according to Zacks/Nasdaq. [35]
- GuruFocus and several valuation trackers put the trailing P/E near 48–49, higher than its long‑term average in the high‑30s and above peers like Walmart, though off the peaks seen earlier in 2025. [36]
- Macro & political uncertainty (tariffs, rates, consumer confidence)
- The Trump‑era tariff dispute adds legal and political noise. [37]
- Higher interest rates and a slower global economy raise questions about how long Costco can sustain high-single‑digit revenue growth.
The result is a stock that still trades at a premium, but no longer at euphoric multiples – which is exactly why some analysts see this pullback as an opportunity.
What analysts and models are forecasting for COST
Across Wall Street, the tone on Costco is constructive but nuanced.
Ratings and price targets
- StockAnalysis.com aggregates 23 analysts with a consensus “Buy” rating and an average 12‑month target of $1,071, implying about 21% upside from current levels. The range runs from $907 on the low end to $1,225 at the high end. [38]
- GuruFocus cites a target around $1,050, also in “Buy” territory, noting that many valuation metrics are near the low end of their two‑year range. [39]
- Simply Wall St. estimates a fair value near $1,055, suggesting Costco is modestly undervalued relative to its discounted cash‑flow assumptions, though there is a wide dispersion among individual analyst targets. [40]
- TipRanks and other platforms similarly classify Costco as a “Buy” to “Strong Buy”, with upside generally in the mid‑teens to low‑20% range over the next year. [41]
Growth expectations
Looking beyond this week’s earnings report, consensus forecasts compiled by StockAnalysis show: [42]
- Revenue:
- FY 2026 revenue expected around $302.7 billion, up ~10% from FY 2025’s $275.2 billion.
- FY 2027 revenue forecast near $325.6 billion, up another ~7.6%.
- EPS:
- EPS projected to rise from $18.21 (FY 2025) to ~$20.48 in FY 2026 and ~$22.57 in FY 2027 – roughly 10–12% annual growth.
If those numbers materialise, Costco’s current P/E in the high‑40s would compress into the high‑30s to low‑40s over a couple of years, even if the share price doesn’t move, helping the valuation “grow into itself.”
Long‑term thesis vs. short‑term trading set‑up
Long-term case for Costco stock
Across Motley Fool, Zacks, Nasdaq and independent research, the long‑term bull case is remarkably consistent: [43]
- Membership economics: High‑margin fees, >90% renewal rates, and a growing base of younger members support recurring revenue and pricing power.
- Scale and buying power: Costco’s ability to secure low prices and pass savings to members has proven resilient across recessions, inflation spikes, and now tariff tensions.
- E‑commerce and omnichannel: While a late bloomer online, digitally enabled sales are now growing 15–20%+, providing an additional growth lever. [44]
- Capital allocation: A record of regular dividend hikes, episodic special dividends, and disciplined share repurchases has rewarded patient shareholders.
Short-term considerations around the Q1 2026 report
Short‑term, the stock could be volatile around the December 11 release:
- Upside catalysts:
- Q1 results beating the already‑optimistic consensus on comps and EPS. [45]
- Strong guidance for the rest of FY 2026, particularly on membership fee growth and margin resilience.
- Any positive hints on the tariff case or a longer‑term commitment to continued special dividends and potential stock splits. [46]
- Downside risks:
- Another step‑down in U.S. traffic or big‑ticket categories, confirming the slowdown worries flagged by MarketWatch and Yahoo Finance. [47]
- A cautious tone on tariffs, where management emphasizes risk rather than potential refunds. [48]
- Any sign that members are becoming more price‑sensitive after fee hikes, leading to softer renewal trends into 2026. [49]
Given those cross‑currents, some analysts recommend owning Costco primarily as a long‑term compounder, not a short‑term trade, and using pullbacks toward the lower end of its recent range as opportunities to scale in. [50]
Bottom line: how Costco stock looks on December 10, 2025
As of December 10, 2025, the Costco story looks like this:
- Business: Strong and still gaining share, with healthy comps, growing membership fees, and a powerful global footprint. [51]
- Stock: Off its highs and lagging the market, but still priced at a premium multiple that assumes double‑digit EPS growth will continue. [52]
- Near-term narrative: Focused on Thursday’s Q1 2026 earnings, the tariff‑refund lawsuit, and lingering hopes (or fears) around a special dividend or stock split announcement. [53]
For investors, Costco remains one of the few big-box retailers treated like a premium growth stock. Whether today’s price turns out to be a bargain or a value trap will hinge on what management says on December 11 about growth, margins, tariffs, and capital returns.
Important: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before investing.
References
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