Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) heads into a pivotal 24 hours. After Wednesday’s close on December 10, 2025, the warehouse giant’s stock is trading near its 2025 lows, just as Wall Street gears up for fiscal Q1 2026 earnings and keeps one eye on a potentially market‑moving Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.
Here’s a detailed look at how Costco stock traded after the bell, what analysts and options markets are pricing in, and the key catalysts investors should know before the market opens on Thursday, December 11, 2025.
How Costco Stock Traded After the Bell on December 10
- Regular session: Costco shares closed at about $874.41, down 1.58% on the day. The stock traded between $871.09 and $889.58 with volume just over 3.3 million shares, putting it right at the bottom of its 52‑week range of roughly $871 to $1,078. [1]
- After-hours: In the first hour of extended trading, COST ticked modestly higher to around $875.50, up roughly 0.1% from the close, indicating a calm but cautious tone ahead of Thursday’s earnings. [2]
On a year‑to‑date basis, Costco shares are now in the red for 2025, even after a spectacular run in 2023–2024, when the stock roughly doubled while the broader market rallied. Several recent articles have flagged that Costco’s stock has turned negative for the year, despite steady high‑single‑digit sales growth, highlighting concerns about decelerating U.S. trends and a lofty valuation. [3]
At Wednesday’s close, Costco trades on roughly 48x trailing earnings and about 44x forward earnings, with a dividend yield near 0.6%, underscoring just how much optimism is already embedded in the price. [4]
When Costco Reports Q1 2026 Earnings – and Why This Quarter Matters
Costco will release its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings after the market closes on Thursday, December 11, 2025, with an earnings results posting around 1:15 p.m. Pacific Time and the conference call scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Pacific. [5]
Multiple sources (Nasdaq, TMX, and company investor relations) confirm that this is a post‑market event, meaning Thursday’s regular trading session will be entirely about positioning ahead of the numbers. [6]
This call is not just about another quarter of staple‑goods sales. It’s also:
- Costco’s first full update since it sued the U.S. government over Trump‑era tariffs, and
- A key check‑in on whether slowing U.S. comparable sales are a blip or the start of a longer deceleration.
Wall Street’s Q1 2026 Expectations: Solid Growth, but Slowing Momentum
Consensus estimates heading into Thursday are tight across different data providers:
- Revenue: Around $67.0–$67.3 billion, up roughly 7.9–8.2% year over year. [7]
- Earnings per share (EPS): About $4.24–$4.28, compared with $3.82 in the year‑ago period – mid‑teens percentage growth. [8]
Benzinga notes that Costco has beaten EPS estimates in eight of the last ten quarters and revenue estimates in six of the last ten, reinforcing the company’s reputation for consistent execution. [9]
Recent November sales data from Costco itself show why expectations are “good but not euphoric”:
- November net sales: $23.64 billion, up 8.1% vs. a year ago.
- Q1 net sales (12 weeks): $65.98 billion, up 8.2%.
- Comparable sales: up 6.9% company‑wide for the month, with “digitally‑enabled” sales up about 16–20%, depending on the period. [10]
But U.S. sales growth has slowed from October to November, which MarketWatch highlighted as one reason the stock slipped into negative territory for the year. U.S. comps decelerated from around 6.7% in October to 5.8% in November, and multi‑year growth trends have moderated as well. [11]
In short, analysts expect another solid quarter, but not necessarily a blowout – and they are finely tuned to any commentary on:
- U.S. traffic and basket size,
- November and early‑holiday trends, and
- How tariffs, inflation and FX are affecting margins.
Options Market: Pricing In a Bigger‑Than‑Usual Move
Options traders are bracing for more action than Costco typically delivers on earnings day.
According to a TipRanks note, options markets are pricing in about a 4% move (roughly $31–32 per share) in either direction following Thursday’s results, versus a historical average of ~2.5% for Costco’s earnings reactions. [12]
A 4% swing on the current share price would roughly translate into:
- A move toward the low $840s on a disappointment, or
- A rebound back toward the low $910s on a strong beat and upbeat guidance.
For short‑term traders, that means implied volatility is elevated; for long‑term investors, it’s a reminder that even a “defensive” retailer can trade like a momentum stock when expectations are tight and the valuation is rich.
The Tariff Lawsuit Overhang: Supreme Court Risk Meets Costco Margins
One of the biggest new storylines for Costco shareholders is not about hot dogs, gas, or membership fees – it’s about tariffs and the Supreme Court.
Costco filed suit in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking a full refund of duties it paid under tariffs imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), arguing that the Trump administration overstepped its legal authority. [13]
Key points:
- A major Supreme Court case will decide whether using IEEPA in this way is lawful; a ruling could come as early as this week, according to Barron’s. [14]
- Costco’s lawsuit is designed to preserve its right to refunds if the Court eventually rules the tariffs illegal, as refunds are not automatic and are subject to tight deadlines for “liquidation” of tariff entries by U.S. Customs. [15]
- Legal commentators and trade law firms describe Costco’s suit as a catalyst for a wave of similar cases by other importers, highlighting what some call “tariff refund FOMO” among corporates. [16]
For Costco, the implications are two‑sided:
- Upside scenario: A favorable ruling plus refunds could boost margins and cash flow, possibly funding future special dividends or buybacks.
- Risk scenario: If tariffs remain in place or refunds are limited, merchandise costs stay elevated, and Costco must continue balancing member‑friendly pricing with margin pressure, particularly on imported goods. [17]
Expect analysts to press management on the size of potential refunds, timeline uncertainty, and how much tariff costs are already embedded in pricing.
Boardroom Moves: Gina Raimondo Joins the Costco Story
Another important December headline: Costco has nominated former U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to its Board of Directors. [18]
Raimondo brings:
- Deep experience in trade policy, international economics and regulation,
- A background in venture capital and state‑level fiscal management, and
- High‑level connections that may enhance Costco’s insight into global supply chains and regulatory risk.
CNBC and other outlets have already linked her nomination to Costco’s tariff strategy, noting that the appointment comes shortly after the company filed its lawsuit challenging Trump‑era tariffs. [19]
While board nominations rarely move the stock in the short term, they shape the strategic backdrop that investors care about over the next several years.
Analysts’ Ratings and Price Targets Going Into Earnings
Despite recent share price weakness, Wall Street remains broadly constructive:
- StockAnalysis aggregates 24 analysts with an average rating of “Buy” and a 12‑month price target around $1,071, implying ~22–23% upside from Wednesday’s close. [20]
- MarketBeat, looking at 32 brokerages, characterizes Costco as a “Moderate Buy”, with 19 buys and 13 holds and an average target just over $1,020, with the highest target above $1,400. [21]
- Recent notes:
Longer‑term projections from 24/7 Wall St. suggest potential share price gains of more than 70% out to 2030, assuming Costco continues to grow membership, expand its warehouse footprint and improve e‑commerce penetration. Those projections are not guarantees, but they underscore how many forecasters still view Costco as a core long‑term compounder rather than a short‑term trading vehicle. [24]
Still, valuation is front and center. A Seeking Alpha overview (summarized via StockAnalysis) points out that Costco heads into earnings with a P/E near 50x, making it vulnerable if growth or margins disappoint — particularly with tariff uncertainty hanging over the story. [25]
Special Dividend and Stock Split Buzz: Probably Not This Time
Costco has a history of delighting shareholders with occasional large special dividends, most recently paying $15 per share in December 2023 following earlier specials in 2020, 2017, 2015 and 2012. [26]
However, a fresh 24/7 Wall St. analysis argues that a special dividend on December 11 is unlikely, pointing to:
- Softer stock performance in 2025 (slightly down year‑to‑date),
- Moderating comparable sales growth versus prior years, and
- The fact that past specials tended to come during periods of exceptionally strong performance. [27]
At the same time, technical analysts and some traders are speculating about a potential stock split or future special dividend, noting that Costco’s share price remains high on an absolute basis and that the company has ample cash and low debt. An Invezz piece highlighted that the stock has fallen roughly 17% from its February high around $1,073, while some still see a bullish technical pattern building. [28]
The consensus view: Don’t count on a new special dividend tomorrow, but Costco’s balance sheet is strong enough that management retains flexibility if conditions improve.
Technical Picture and Trading Levels for Thursday’s Session
From a technical standpoint, Wednesday’s move pushed Costco deeper into a short‑term downtrend:
- The stock closed around $874, below short‑ and long‑term moving averages.
- Chart services like StockInvest describe COST as lying in the lower part of a falling trend, downgrading the stock from “Sell” to “Strong Sell” on a short‑term basis. [29]
Their model suggests:
- An expected open around $878 on Thursday,
- An intraday trading range roughly between $866.8 and $882.0, based on recent volatility, and
- No strong volume‑based support immediately below current prices, with notable resistance near $915. [30]
That doesn’t mean Costco is fundamentally broken – just that technical signals are tilted bearish into earnings, amplifying the importance of Thursday’s guidance.
Macro Backdrop: Fed Rate Cut Adds a Tailwind – with a Catch
Beyond company‑specific news, Costco will open on Thursday in a market digesting a major macro event:
- The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on December 10, bringing the target range down to 3.50%–3.75%, its third cut of 2025. [31]
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that further hikes are unlikely in the near term, though the Fed also suggested it will pause before cutting again, waiting for clearer signals on inflation and employment. [32]
- Major U.S. equity indices rallied sharply after the announcement, with the S&P 500 closing just shy of a new record. [33]
Lower rates generally support high‑quality, cash‑generative companies like Costco, but they also keep the spotlight on valuation: as discount rates fall, investors can be more forgiving of elevated earnings multiples – as long as growth and margins hold up.
Five Things Costco Investors Should Watch Before Thursday’s Open
Going into the December 11, 2025 session, here are the key questions for COST traders and longer‑term shareholders:
- Pre‑market reaction to Fed and futures
- How does the broader market open after digesting the rate cut and Powell’s comments?
- Do defensive consumer staples (like COST, WMT, BJ) attract bids, or does money rotate into higher‑beta names instead? [34]
- Any overnight headlines on tariffs or the Supreme Court
- Watch for updates on the IEEPA tariff case, including timing signals from the Supreme Court or commentary from administration officials about potential refund policy. [35]
- Updated sentiment on the tariff lawsuit
- Articles from CFO Dive, law firms, and trade analysts are framing Costco as the poster child for tariff‑refund litigation, which could influence how investors handicap both risk and potential upside. [36]
- Street positioning and options pricing
- With options pricing in a 4% post‑earnings move, pay attention to any pre‑market block trades or skew changes that hint at whether traders are leaning bullish or bearish into the close. [37]
- Short‑term technical levels
- On Thursday morning, keep an eye on whether COST:
- Holds above $871 (recent 52‑week low and intraday floor), and
- Can reclaim the high $880s to low $890s, where it traded earlier this week. [38]
- On Thursday morning, keep an eye on whether COST:
A rebound into the mid‑$890s ahead of the report would suggest some pre‑earnings dip‑buying, while a break below $870 could signal that investors want a bigger discount before taking on event risk.
Bottom Line: High Quality Business, High Event Risk
Costco remains one of the strongest operators in global retail, backed by:
- A sticky membership model with renewal rates above 90%,
- Consistent high‑single‑digit sales growth, and
- A fortress balance sheet with room for dividends, special payouts, or buybacks. [39]
But heading into December 11, 2025, Costco stock sits at an awkward intersection of:
- Rich valuation (near 50x earnings),
- Slowing U.S. sales momentum,
- Heightened legal and policy uncertainty around tariffs, and
- Elevated expectations for a clean Q1 print and reassuring guidance.
For short‑term traders, Thursday’s session is all about positioning into a binary‑like event priced for a larger‑than‑usual move. For long‑term investors, the focus is whether Costco can prove that its premium multiple is still justified – and whether the tariff saga might eventually turn from a risk into a margin tailwind.
Either way, Costco will likely be one of the most closely watched stocks on Wall Street from Thursday’s open through the closing bell and beyond.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. investor.costco.com, 6. money.tmx.com, 7. www.benzinga.com, 8. www.benzinga.com, 9. www.benzinga.com, 10. investor.costco.com, 11. www.marketwatch.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.peacocktariffconsulting.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. www.projectfinance.law, 16. www.cfodive.com, 17. www.benzinga.com, 18. www.globenewswire.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.benzinga.com, 23. www.benzinga.com, 24. 247wallst.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. 247wallst.com, 27. 247wallst.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. stockinvest.us, 30. stockinvest.us, 31. www.livemint.com, 32. www.investopedia.com, 33. www.investopedia.com, 34. www.investopedia.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.cfodive.com, 37. www.tipranks.com, 38. stockanalysis.com, 39. 247wallst.com
