Costco Stock After Q1 2026 Earnings: How COST Is Trading After the Bell on December 11, 2025 – and What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 12

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) reported fiscal first‑quarter 2026 results after the closing bell on Thursday, December 11, 2025, delivering a clean earnings beat on both revenue and earnings per share. Yet the immediate reaction in Costco’s stock price has been surprisingly muted, with after-hours moves measured in fractions of a percent rather than big swings – despite high expectations and intense pre‑earnings speculation about margins and a possible special dividend. ^[1]

As investors head into the Friday, December 12 session, the key question isn’t whether Costco performed well – it clearly did – but whether that performance is enough to reignite a stock that has lagged both peers and the broader market in 2025.

1. Costco’s Q1 FY2026 Earnings in One Snapshot

Costco’s fiscal first quarter covers the 12 weeks ended November 23, 2025. Here are the headline numbers from the company’s official release and early analyst coverage: ^[2]

Top line and bottom line

• Total revenue: about $67.31 billion, up roughly 8.3% year over year.
• Net sales:$65.98 billion, up 8.2% from $60.99 billion in the prior-year quarter.
• Membership fees: about $1.33 billion, versus roughly $1.17 billion a year earlier – an increase of around 14%.
• Net income:$2.0 billion, up from $1.8 billion last year.
• Diluted EPS:$4.50, compared with $4.04 a year ago.

Relative to expectations:

• Investing.com pegs consensus EPS at $4.28, so Costco beat by $0.22 per share. ^[3]
• Revenue of $67.31 billion slightly exceeded forecasts in some models (around $67.08–$67.14 billion) and was essentially in line to modestly above in others (Zacks’ automated AP feed framed it as a marginal miss vs. $67.33 billion). ^[4]

Comparable sales and digital growth

Costs’s all‑important comparable sales – excluding gasoline price swings and foreign exchange – remained solid: ^[5]

• Total company comps:+6.4%
• U.S. comps:+5.9%
• Canada: headline +6.5%, +9.0% on an adjusted basis
• Other International:+8.8% headline; adjusted comps around +6.8%
• Digitally enabled sales:+20.5%, underscoring ongoing e‑commerce momentum

Margins and profitability

From Costco’s detailed financials: ^[6]

• Operating income rose to about $2.46 billion, up from $2.20 billion last year.
• Total operating expenses increased, but were outpaced by revenue, supporting modest margin expansion.
• A tax benefit tied to stock‑based compensation (~$72 million, or $0.16 per share) provided a small boost, though that benefit was actually smaller than last year’s (~$100 million).

Balance sheet and cash flow

Costco continues to operate from a position of notable financial strength: ^[7]

• Cash and cash equivalents: about $16.2 billion, up from $14.2 billion at fiscal year‑end.
• Total current assets: roughly $43.4 billion.
• Merchandise inventories: about $21.1 billion, up from $18.1 billion – a normal build given growth and store expansion, but something traders will watch for signs of overstocking.
• Net cash from operating activities: approximately $4.7 billion, up sharply from about $3.3 billion in the prior‑year quarter.
• Costco returned cash via both dividends (~$577 million) and share repurchases (~$210 million) in the quarter.

The company ended Q1 with 923 warehouses worldwide, including 633 in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, plus a growing international footprint and e‑commerce operations across major markets including the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Mexico, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia. ^[8]

2. How COST Stock Traded After the Bell on December 11

Regular-session performance

During the regular Thursday session, Costco shares closed around $884.48, up about 1.15% on the day, even before the earnings report hit the tape. ^[9]

That close leaves COST:

• Well below its 52‑week high of roughly $1,078,
• Hovering not far above the bottom of its 52‑week range, around $871, according to live quote data. ^[10]

After-hours reaction: muted and choppy

The initial after‑hours response was modest:

• Shortly after the release, Investing.com reported COST shares trading about 0.3% lower in after‑hours trading, despite the earnings beat, as investors digested the results. ^[11]
• Benzinga’s after‑hours snapshot a few minutes later had the stock around $883.22, down roughly 0.18% from the close. ^[12]

Later quote pages from some platforms showed brief spikes above $900 (about +2% from the close), suggesting whipsaw trading as liquidity shifted deeper into the extended session. ^[13]

The common thread: no dramatic move. For a stock trading at a premium multiple, with a history of reacting strongly to earnings, the after‑hours message seems to be:

Costco delivered exactly what ardent bulls expected – and not enough surprise to force a major repricing, at least initially.

Recent performance context

Despite today’s gain, Costco remains a laggard in 2025:

• Over the last 3 months, COST is down roughly 8–9%.
• Over the last 12 months, it’s declined about 10–11%, according to Investing.com data. ^[14]
• Zacks/FinViz analysis earlier this week noted year‑to‑date declines around 4–5%, even as Walmart has surged more than 25% and the S&P 500 is up high‑teens percentage points. ^[15]

This “off year” is precisely what pre‑earnings analyses from 24/7 Wall St. and others highlighted: after years of outperformance, Costco spent 2025 underperforming the index by a wide margin, its worst relative stretch in over two decades. ^[16]

3. Why the Market Reaction Is (So Far) So Calm

Given the numbers, why is COST not ripping higher after hours?

3.1 Expectations were already elevated

Going into the print, analysts were broadly bullish:

• Zacks’ consensus called for revenue of about $67.2–$67.3 billion and EPS of around $4.25–$4.27, implying solid high‑single‑digit sales growth and double‑digit EPS growth. ^[17]
• Pre‑earnings commentary from Zacks/FinViz framed Costco as well-positioned to beat, citing strong November sales, robust comps and accelerating digital growth. ^[18]

Costco did, in fact, beat on both metrics, but only modestly relative to those expectations. When a stock trades at a forward price‑to‑earnings (P/E) multiple in the mid‑40s, markets often demand an exceptional surprise or new guidance to justify a big move higher.

3.2 Valuation still leaves little room for error

Multiple valuation lenses show Costco remains expensive even after its underperformance:

• Forward P/E ~43–44 vs. an industry average near 30 and an S&P 500 multiple in the low‑20s, according to Zacks’ analysis. ^[19]
• Simply Wall St estimates a trailing P/E near 48, more than double the broader U.S. consumer retailing group (~22), and higher than its own “fair” P/E of ~34.6 based on growth and profitability assumptions. ^[20]
• Value‑oriented models like AlphaSpread’s DCF‑style estimate place intrinsic value in roughly the mid‑$500s, significantly below today’s high‑$800s share price – though such models depend heavily on long‑term assumptions. ^[21]

In short, great execution is already priced in. Thursday’s quarter reinforced Costco’s strength, but didn’t dramatically shift the long‑term narrative – at least not in the way a massive guidance hike, new special dividend, or stock split might have.

3.3 The “no special dividend (for now)” takeaway

One of the hotter pre‑earnings storylines was the possibility of another special dividend from Costco – the company has periodically issued large one‑time payouts (e.g., $15 per share in 2023, $10 in 2020). ^[22]

A widely shared 24/7 Wall St. piece earlier this week argued that: ^[23]

• Costco’s 2025 underperformance versus the S&P 500,
• A slowdown in comparable-sales growth, and
• A still‑lofty valuation

made a special dividend on Dec. 11 unlikely, despite its roughly $15 billion–plus cash pile and low leverage.

The official Q1 release contains no special dividend announcement, only the usual quarterly payout and regular buyback activity. ^[24]

Investors hoping for an immediate capital‑return surprise didn’t get it – another reason the post‑earnings reaction is restrained rather than euphoric.

4. Key Themes and Metrics From the Quarter

Beyond the top‑line and EPS headlines, several themes stand out from Costco’s results and early commentary.

4.1 Membership remains the core engine

Membership fees are Costco’s high‑margin annuity, and Q1 showed that engine is still humming:

• Membership fee revenue increased about 14% year over year to roughly $1.33 billion. ^[25]
• 24/7 Wall St.’s live coverage notes paid memberships up about 6.3% and Executive memberships up about 9.3%, with renewal rates still above 90%, albeit with slight pressure as more sign‑ups occur online (which historically renew at a somewhat lower rate). ^[26]

Management expects this renewal drag from digital sign‑ups to persist for “a few more quarters,” but is leaning on tools like auto‑renew, improved targeted digital communication, and perks such as a monthly Instacart credit for Executive members to keep engagement strong. ^[27]

For Friday trading, any additional detail from the earnings call or follow‑up notes on:

• Renewal rates by region
• Executive membership penetration
• The impact of recent membership fee hikes

could alter sentiment around Costco’s most important profit driver.

4.2 Digital and “digitally enabled” sales are accelerating

Digital has been a bright spot:

• Costco reported digitally enabled sales growth of 20.5% in Q1, far outpacing overall comps. ^[28]
• Pre‑earnings previews highlighted e‑commerce traffic growth in the high‑20% range and continuing improvements at Costco Logistics, including better delivery metrics and customer satisfaction. ^[29]

Beginning with upcoming monthly sales reports, Costco plans to emphasize a new “digitally enabled sales” metric that will consolidate online channels and partner platforms (Instacart, Uber Eats, DoorDash, etc.), giving investors more visibility into its omnichannel mix. ^[30]

For growth‑oriented investors, digital remains one of the critical long‑term levers – and how management frames this trend on the call and in Q&A could influence how aggressively Wall Street models future margins.

4.3 Margins, tariffs, and wage pressures

Costco is navigating an environment of tariffs, wage inflation and shifting product mix:

• Q1 operating income increased from about $2.20 billion to $2.46 billion, signaling that Costco is holding margins even as it invests in labor and keeps prices sharp for members. ^[31]
• Prior commentary highlighted a multi‑pronged tariff strategy, including supplier consolidation, shifting sourcing, expanding Kirkland Signature penetration, and operational efficiencies. Costco reiterated its goal of being the “last to raise prices and the first to lower them.” ^[32]

Still, analysts and bears remain focused on:

• Tariff risk – particularly if trade tensions escalate further.
• Labor costs – ongoing wage investments and benefits that can pressure SG&A.
• Mix shifts – toward lower‑margin staples vs. discretionary categories. ^[33]

If Friday brings new color on wage plans, pricing actions, or tariff exposure, it could move the stock, especially given Costco’s premium multiple.

4.4 CapEx, expansion, and long-term growth

Costco is not standing still:

• CapEx reached about $5.5 billion in FY2025 and is expected to increase again in FY2026, funding warehouse openings, remodels, depots, and new manufacturing capacity. ^[34]
• Management has previously talked about around 35 planned openings for this fiscal year, including relocations, as part of its global growth strategy. ^[35]

The trade‑off:

• Higher CapEx supports membership growth and long‑term revenue,
• But it can also pressure near-term free cash flow, which is one reason investors obsess over whether Costco will choose buybacks, dividends, or special dividends as its primary capital‑return lever.

5. Wall Street’s View: Targets, Ratings and Fair Value Debate

5.1 Analyst ratings and price targets

The Street remains broadly bullish, even as some valuation concerns linger:

• TipRanks data shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus based on about 24 analysts, with 16 Buys and 8 Holds and an average price target near $1,092, implying roughly 20–25% upside from current prices. ^[36]
• Quiver Quantitative tracks 11 price targets in the last six months, with a median around $1,033. Recent targets include:
  • $1,100 (Telsey Advisory Group),
  • $1,025–$1,050 (JPMorgan, Oppenheimer),
  • $950 (Mizuho),
  • $1,200 (Argus). ^[37]

Even the most cautious mainstream targets still sit well above the mid‑$800s, underscoring that Wall Street largely views the recent share-price stagnation as a valuation reset rather than a broken business.

5.2 Fundamental “fair value” vs. market price

At the same time, more valuation‑sensitive research is less forgiving:

• Simply Wall St flags Costco as expensive vs. both peers and its own “fair” P/E, with the stock at nearly 48x earnings versus a sector average under 22x and a “fair” multiple just under 35x. ^[38]
• DCF‑style models from AlphaSpread suggest intrinsic value in roughly the high‑$500s, implying significant downside if growth slows or margins compress more than expected. ^[39]

Pre‑earnings Zacks/FinViz commentary framed Costco as a premium stock that may still be worth paying up for, but stressed that volatility around earnings was likely given high expectations and rich multiples. ^[40]

For Friday’s session, keep in mind:

• Upward revisions to price targets or EPS estimates could support the stock.
• Downgrades or valuation‑driven target cuts could reinforce the idea that, even with excellent fundamentals, Costco may be “too good and too expensive” for some managers at current levels.

6. What Investors Should Watch Before the Market Opens on December 12, 2025

With earnings out and the initial after‑hours reaction in, attention shifts to what might move Costco stock into Friday’s regular session.

6.1 Final read-through from the earnings call

Costco scheduled its earnings call for 2:00 p.m. Pacific (5:00 p.m. Eastern) on December 11. ^[41]

Key areas where fresh commentary could influence Friday trading:

1. Membership & renewals
   • Any quantified update on renewal rates after the membership-fee hike.
   • Insights into the impact of digital sign-ups and auto-renew penetration. ^[42]
2. Guidance tone for FY2026
   • Costco doesn’t always provide explicit quarterly guidance, but management’s tone on comps, traffic, and margins will be closely parsed.
   • Any hint of slower comps or margin compression could weigh on the stock, given its valuation. ^[43]
3. Capital allocation
   • Even without a special dividend announcement tonight, investors will listen for hints about:
     • Future special dividends,
     • Pace of share repurchases, and
     • Priorities between CapEx, regular dividends, and balance-sheet flexibility. ^[44]

Analyst notes and call recaps hitting before the opening bell Friday could easily nudge COST higher or lower by a few percentage points.

6.2 Overnight analyst commentary and rating changes

Given Costco’s importance in consumer staples and large‑cap indices, sell‑side research desks are likely already drafting overnight notes. Look for:

• Target hikes from already‑bullish firms (Telsey, Oppenheimer, JPMorgan, etc.) if they view Q1 as confirmation that growth and margins are tracking to plan. ^[45]
• Potential downgrades or neutral stances from more valuation‑focused analysts if they conclude that even a strong beat doesn’t justify Costco’s 40‑plus P/E.

These notes often hit newswires and trading desks well before retail investors see them, shaping pre‑market order flow.

6.3 Pre-market trading levels and technical zones

As of Thursday night, we know:

• Regular close: ~$884.48
• After-hours trading: mostly hugging the high‑$880s, with occasional prints higher according to some platforms. ^[46]
• 52‑week range: roughly $871 to $1,078. ^[47]

Near-term technical levels to watch into the open:

• The $870–$880 zone, which lines up with recent lows and the bottom of the 52‑week range. A decisive break below could signal a more negative reset in sentiment.
• The $900–$920 area, where the stock has flirted during after-hours quotes and where many short‑dated options strikes cluster, potentially adding noise to intraday swings. ^[48]

For traders, overnight futures, Treasury yields and sector‑wide moves in defensive retail and big‑box peers (Walmart, Target, Dollar General) will also matter. ^[49]

6.4 Macro backdrop: Fed cuts and rotation into blue chips

Thursday’s broader tape was supportive:

• The Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs, even as the Nasdaq slipped on Oracle’s post‑earnings slide. ^[50]
• Markets are still digesting yesterday’s Federal Reserve rate cut, which lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points, easing financial conditions and generally favoring high‑quality blue chips. ^[51]

For Costco, this environment can cut both ways:

• Lower rates are generally supportive for premium defensive names,
• But ongoing rotation into cyclical or higher‑beta “AI winners” could keep some institutional money away from full‑price staples, limiting upside even after a strong quarter.

6.5 Longer-term questions that won’t be answered in one morning

Even if Friday opens higher or lower, day‑to‑day moves won’t fully resolve several bigger debates:

• Is Costco’s valuation sustainable? Premium multiples can persist for years if comps, membership and digital growth stay robust – but there is little margin for disappointment. ^[52]
• Will Costco continue its cadence of special dividends? History and the current cash position say “yes eventually,” but 2025’s underperformance and moderate comps suggest timing may be pushed out. ^[53]
• How big can digital get without eroding the treasure‑hunt warehouse experience? Investors are keen to see whether digitally enabled growth enhances, rather than cannibalizes, Costco’s moat. ^[54]

7. Bottom Line for COST Stock Heading Into December 12, 2025

Putting it all together:

• Fundamentals: Costco just delivered exactly what long‑term shareholders wanted – steady high‑single‑digit sales growth, double‑digit EPS growth, robust membership fee gains, and 20%+ digital expansion, all while maintaining a fortress balance sheet. ^[55]
• Market reaction (so far): After-hours trading suggests no major repricing: COST has drifted slightly below and occasionally above the regular close, but there’s no sign of panic or euphoria. ^[56]
• Valuation & sentiment: The stock still trades at a rich multiple by almost any measure. Bulls argue that Costco’s membership model, global runway and digital transformation justify that premium; skeptics point to stretched valuation against slower comps and an underperforming share price. ^[57]

For Friday’s open on December 12, 2025, the key catalysts to watch are:

1. Earnings call takeaways, especially on membership, margins, and capital returns.
2. Overnight analyst reports, including any rating or target changes.
3. Pre‑market trading behavior around the $870–$900 band, which will reveal whether investors view Q1 as a “good enough” quarter to keep holding, or a chance to reposition.

References

1. www.globenewswire.com, 2. www.globenewswire.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.globenewswire.com, 6. www.stocktitan.net, 7. www.stocktitan.net, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.benzinga.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. finviz.com, 16. 247wallst.com, 17. finviz.com, 18. finviz.com, 19. finviz.com, 20. simplywall.st, 21. www.alphaspread.com, 22. 247wallst.com, 23. 247wallst.com, 24. www.globenewswire.com, 25. www.stocktitan.net, 26. 247wallst.com, 27. finviz.com, 28. www.globenewswire.com, 29. 247wallst.com, 30. 247wallst.com, 31. www.stocktitan.net, 32. 247wallst.com, 33. 247wallst.com, 34. 247wallst.com, 35. 247wallst.com, 36. www.tipranks.com, 37. www.quiverquant.com, 38. simplywall.st, 39. www.alphaspread.com, 40. finviz.com, 41. www.globenewswire.com, 42. 247wallst.com, 43. 247wallst.com, 44. www.stocktitan.net, 45. www.quiverquant.com, 46. www.benzinga.com, 47. www.investing.com, 48. www.investing.com, 49. finviz.com, 50. www.investopedia.com, 51. www.investopedia.com, 52. finviz.com, 53. 247wallst.com, 54. 247wallst.com, 55. www.globenewswire.com, 56. www.benzinga.com, 57. finviz.com