Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) wrapped up Friday’s session (Dec. 12, 2025) with investors still digesting the company’s fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, fresh analyst price‑target changes, and a renewed debate over Costco’s premium valuation. After the closing bell, the stock steadied in extended trading—setting the stage for what matters most heading into the next U.S. trading session.
Costco stock after the bell: Where COST stands on Dec. 12, 2025
Costco shares finished regular trading on Dec. 12 near $884 after a choppy session that saw the stock dip toward the high‑$860s before recovering into the close. In early after‑hours trading, COST hovered around $884.5, signaling that the market’s immediate post‑earnings reset may be stabilizing—at least for now. [1]
That intraday swing is important: it suggests that while some investors used Friday to sell into the earnings news (and the “special dividend” disappointment—more on that below), others stepped in quickly on weakness, likely seeing Costco’s business momentum as intact.
The real catalyst: Costco’s fiscal Q1 2026 earnings (reported late Dec. 11)
Although you asked about after the bell on Dec. 12, the price action investors traded on Friday was still largely the market’s reaction to Costco’s fiscal first‑quarter 2026 results (for the 12 weeks ended Nov. 23, 2025), released after the prior day’s close. [2]
Key earnings numbers Wall Street focused on
Here are the metrics that repeatedly showed up in major coverage and analyst notes published on Dec. 12:
- Net sales:$65.98 billion, up 8.2% year over year. [3]
- Net income:$2.001 billion, or $4.50 per diluted share, vs. $4.04 a year earlier (including a $72 million tax benefit tied to stock‑based compensation). [4]
- Comparable sales (total company):+6.4% year over year. [5]
- Digitally enabled comparable sales:+20.5%, underscoring how much Costco’s online and tech‑assisted growth is accelerating. [6]
- Total revenue (as cited by Reuters/LSEG):$67.31 billion, slightly above expectations. [7]
The punchline: this was not a “bad quarter.” Most headlines framed it as a clean beat on key measures—yet the stock’s reaction remained muted, which tells you expectations were already high.
Why Costco stock didn’t surge on strong results
Several themes dominated Dec. 12 coverage from major financial outlets—and together they explain why Costco can deliver a strong quarter and still struggle to rally.
1) Costco’s “great company, expensive stock” problem is back in focus
Multiple analyses highlighted that Costco trades at a rich forward earnings multiple relative to the broader market—meaning even solid execution may not be enough to drive a big upside surprise unless guidance or upside catalysts appear. Barron’s pointed to Costco trading around ~43x forward earnings in the wake of results, a key reason some investors took profits or stayed cautious. [8]
A more skeptical valuation take also circulated on Dec. 12, arguing that the math looks stretched if growth stays in the single digits over time. [9]
2) The special dividend that some investors hoped for did not appear
A recurring theme on Friday: investors had been watching for a special dividend, something Costco has done periodically in the past. Barron’s reported that disappointment over no special dividend helped sour the immediate sentiment—even with strong operational performance. [10]
3) Membership renewal rates: still strong, but being watched closely
One of Costco’s “tell” metrics is renewal rate. Coverage highlighted worldwide renewal around 89.7% (with U.S./Canada higher), and that even small movements matter because membership fees are such a high‑quality earnings stream. [11]
The nuance: some commentary suggested the mix shift toward digital sign‑ups can pressure renewal rates at the margin—even if overall member growth remains healthy. [12]
4) Tariffs and pricing strategy are a headline risk again
Dec. 12 reporting also flagged Costco’s comments and actions tied to tariffs, including reporting that Costco filed a lawsuit seeking tariff refunds—an unusual move that puts trade policy back into the narrative. [13]
The “bull case” highlighted in Dec. 12 coverage: traffic, digital growth, and fee income
While valuation and the dividend debate dominated the “why didn’t it pop?” angle, the business story many outlets emphasized was straightforward: Costco continues to generate loyalty, traffic, and strong seasonal demand.
Food court + holiday shopping momentum became an earnings headline
MarketWatch and others leaned into very Costco‑specific proof points—food court and bakery records, plus strong Black Friday performance. One widely repeated detail: online non‑food sales topped $250 million on Black Friday. [14]
Membership fee income remains a pillar
Investopedia highlighted that membership fee revenue rose 14% to about $1.33 billion, a reminder that Costco’s “subscription‑like” economics continue to scale. [15]
Warehouses and productivity
Costco reported it now operates 923 warehouses globally, including 633 in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. [16]
Business Insider coverage also emphasized that newer warehouses are becoming meaningfully more productive—an underappreciated driver for long‑term compounding when combined with membership economics. [17]
Analyst forecasts and price targets published Dec. 12, 2025: What Wall Street is saying now
Friday brought a wave of “first take” notes. The most useful way to read them isn’t just “buy vs. sell,” but what analysts think will matter over the next 6–18 months.
Reuters “Street View” roundup: confidence in the model, focus on renewal + tech
A Reuters compilation published on Dec. 12 summarized several perspectives:
- J.P. Morgan: Overweight rating with a price target around $1,027, expecting sales and executive memberships to keep growing and renewal rates to strengthen, with valuation looking more attractive further out. [18]
- Jefferies: Buy rating, price target around $1,050, pointing to strong sales growth, steady membership gains, and room for earnings to beat forecasts as Costco leverages size and technology. [19]
- Bernstein: Outperform, price target around $1,146, seeing renewal rates stabilizing and continued fee‑income strength, with potential offset from newer revenue streams like retail media. [20]
- Morningstar: Fair value cited around $640, expecting renewals to improve as Costco builds out data/tech platforms for more targeted member communication. [21]
That spread tells you something crucial: even analysts who like Costco can disagree sharply on what it’s worth.
Truist’s Friday call: hold rating, target cut
An Investing.com report published late Dec. 12 said Truist lowered its price target to $926 from $1,033 while keeping a Hold rating, citing concerns that membership growth has slowed and that digital sign‑ups can come with lower renewal rates—an issue that can weigh on the stock’s multiple. [22]
Market context on Dec. 12: Costco wasn’t trading in a vacuum
Friday’s tape also mattered. A Reuters market report described U.S. equities slipping amid renewed volatility in tech and “AI trade” sentiment following a weak outlook from Broadcom, prompting some rotation and caution in risk assets. That broader mood can influence how investors treat premium‑valued defensives like Costco—especially when expectations are elevated. [23]
What to know before “market open” on Dec. 13, 2025
A key calendar point: Dec. 13, 2025 is a Saturday, so U.S. stock markets are closed—there is no regular pre‑market session for Costco shares the way there is on a weekday. The next meaningful “market open” for COST is Monday, Dec. 15, 2025.
With that in mind, here’s the practical checklist for investors heading into the weekend and into Monday’s premarket:
1) Watch for follow‑through analyst notes and target changes
The first wave hit on Friday, but additional notes often follow over the weekend and early Monday. The market will react less to the rating and more to:
- renewal rate commentary,
- whether analysts adjust long‑term margin assumptions,
- how they model digital, retail media, and delivery partnerships.
2) Track any developments tied to tariffs and the lawsuit
Because tariffs affect pricing, sourcing, and margins, any incremental news or commentary can move sentiment quickly—especially when the stock is priced for consistency. [24]
3) Know the key business debate heading into next week
Going into the next session, the stock’s story is likely to remain a tug‑of‑war between:
- Operational momentum (comps +6.4%, digitally enabled comps +20.5%, membership fee income up strongly). [25]
- Valuation and expectations (premium multiple, and frustration about no special dividend). [26]
4) Macro calendar: Monday morning events can shape retail sentiment
Even though Costco is company‑specific, macro data and Fed commentary can affect discount rates and valuation appetite. MarketWatch’s U.S. economic calendar lists items for Monday, Dec. 15, including the Empire State manufacturing survey and other scheduled events. [27]
5) Put upcoming Costco dates on your radar (next catalysts)
From Costco’s investor schedule, notable upcoming items include December sales results (Jan. 7, 2026) and the shareholders’ meeting (Jan. 15, 2026)—events that can reset the narrative after earnings. [28]
Bottom line for COST heading into next week
As of after-hours Friday (Dec. 12, 2025), Costco stock looked stable, not euphoric—consistent with a market that believes the business is strong, but is still wrestling with a premium valuation and a lack of near-term “extra” catalysts like a special dividend. [29]
If you’re watching COST into the next open, the highest-impact items are:
- any new commentary on renewal rates and member mix,
- how analysts frame Costco’s tech/digital momentum as a margin driver (or not),
- and whether tariff headlines meaningfully change expectations on pricing and profitability.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. investor.costco.com, 3. investor.costco.com, 4. investor.costco.com, 5. investor.costco.com, 6. investor.costco.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. seekingalpha.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. in.investing.com, 13. www.axios.com, 14. www.marketwatch.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. investor.costco.com, 17. www.businessinsider.com, 18. www.tradingview.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. in.investing.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.axios.com, 25. investor.costco.com, 26. www.barrons.com, 27. www.marketwatch.com, 28. investor.costco.com, 29. stockanalysis.com
