Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) finished Thursday’s regular session under modest pressure—and then barely budged after the closing bell, a sign that traders are still digesting the same debate that has dominated Costco’s tape for much of 2025: strong operating performance vs. a still-premium valuation.
By the 4:00 p.m. ET close on December 18, 2025, COST ended at $857.59, down 0.59% on the day. In after-hours trading, shares ticked slightly lower to $856.25 as of 5:53 p.m. ET (about -0.16% vs. the close). StockAnalysis
What matters for Friday’s open (Dec. 19) isn’t just that after-hours move—it’s why the stock continues to struggle to regain momentum even after a solid earnings report last week, and what catalysts could shift sentiment heading into the final stretch of the year.
Costco stock after the bell: where COST stands tonight
Thursday close: $857.59 (4:00 p.m. ET) StockAnalysis
After-hours: $856.25 (5:53 p.m. ET) StockAnalysis
In regular trading, Costco underperformed a broad market session that was generally constructive: the S&P 500 gained 0.79% while Costco slipped 0.59%. MarketWatch
A key technical and sentiment detail: COST is trading near the low end of its 52-week range—with MarketBeat listing a 52-week low of $844.06 and a 52-week high of $1,078.23. MarketBeat
That puts the stock roughly 1.6% above its 52-week low and about 20% below its 52-week high (based on those figures).
The big picture: why Costco stock keeps acting “heavy” despite solid fundamentals
Costco’s operational story has not collapsed. The stock’s recent softness is largely about expectations, valuation, and the market’s sensitivity to any sign of “peak Costco.”
1) Earnings were strong—especially the high-margin membership engine
Last week, Costco reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results (quarter ended Nov. 23, 2025). Highlights from the company’s release include:
- Net sales: $65.98B, up 8.2% year over year
- Membership fees: $1.329B (a crucial high-margin contributor)
- Total revenue: $67.307B
- Diluted EPS:$4.50 Costco Investor Relations
Comparable sales (company-wide) were +6.4%, and Costco’s “digitally-enabled” comp figure was +20.5%, underscoring that e-commerce and digitally influenced shopping remain meaningful growth drivers. Costco Investor Relations
Yet despite those numbers, Costco’s stock reaction post-earnings has been muted to negative in parts of the week, reinforcing that investors were already pricing in a lot of good news. Investopedia
2) The market’s pushback: valuation and “how much better can it get?”
Two separate Motley Fool analyses published today lean into the same idea: Costco can execute well and still struggle to outperform if the valuation stays stretched and the stock’s yield remains relatively low. The Motley Fool
This is not a new critique—Costco often trades at a premium because its model is unusually durable. But in a year when investors have rotated between themes and demanded more immediate upside, Costco’s premium multiple has been harder to defend on sentiment alone.
3) Membership renewal rates and traffic: small changes, big reactions
The most consequential “bear” narrative right now isn’t that Costco is losing members—it’s that growth and renewal metrics may be cooling at the margins, which matters a lot for a stock priced for consistency.
- Barron’s noted that analysts have pointed to membership renewal rates moderating to 89.7% from 90.2%, alongside ongoing tariff concerns and a valuation many still consider expensive. Barron’s
- MarketWatch highlighted a rare and highly visible Roth Capital “sell” stance, arguing that membership and traffic trends are weakening while competition intensifies. MarketWatch
Even if you view these changes as incremental, the market tends to treat membership health as Costco’s “canary in the coal mine.”
Options activity spiked today—here’s what that can mean (and what it doesn’t)
One of the more notable data points from Thursday: unusually heavy put-option buying in COST.
MarketBeat reported that traders bought 87,907 put options on Thursday—about 93% above the average daily put volume cited in its piece. MarketBeat
Two important caveats for readers heading into Friday:
- Put volume isn’t automatically bearish. Large investors often buy puts to hedge existing long positions—especially into macro events or year-end liquidity shifts.
- But it does signal heightened demand for protection, which can amplify volatility if the stock breaks key levels (especially with COST sitting close to its 52-week low). MarketBeat
MarketBeat also noted COST is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which can act as a headwind for momentum-focused buyers. MarketBeat
Wall Street forecasts tonight: what analysts expect next
Despite the stock’s weak stretch, the consensus picture is still broadly constructive—just less unanimous than Costco bulls have been used to.
According to StockAnalysis’ compiled analyst data:
- Consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average 12-month price target:$1,059 (about +23.5% vs. $857.59)
- Low target: $769
- High target: $1,225 StockAnalysis
The “low target” is especially relevant because it reflects the most prominent recent outlier: Roth Capital’s downgrade (to Strong Sell in StockAnalysis’ table) and price target cut to $769. StockAnalysis
StockAnalysis also summarizes consensus financial expectations that imply Costco’s growth trajectory remains healthy:
- Revenue (FY 2026) forecast: ~$302.73B
- EPS (FY 2026) forecast: ~20.48
- Revenue (FY 2027) forecast: ~$325.63B
- EPS (FY 2027) forecast: ~22.57 StockAnalysis
Why this matters for Friday: If COST slips toward the 52-week low again, bulls will lean on the argument that analyst targets and forward fundamentals still support a rebound. Bears will counter that targets can lag price action—and that premium multiples compress fast when sentiment flips.
Macro backdrop: what changed today—and what could move markets Friday
Even for a company-specific story like Costco, Friday’s open will be shaped by macro tone.
Today: CPI looked cooler, but the data came with a giant asterisk
Reuters reported that November CPI rose 2.7% year over year, and core inflation was 2.6%, both lower than expected—but with significant distortions tied to a 43-day government shutdown that disrupted data collection and even led to canceled releases earlier in the fall. Reuters
That matters for Costco because inflation and rate expectations influence:
- consumer demand and mix (trade-down vs. premium categories),
- cost pressures and pricing,
- and the discount rate investors apply to high-quality “compounder” stocks.
Reuters also noted the Federal Reserve recently cut rates to 3.50%–3.75% while signaling a potential pause amid data uncertainty. Reuters
Tomorrow (Friday, Dec. 19): two consumer-sensitive releases at 10:00 a.m. ET
According to the New York Fed’s economic indicators calendar, Friday includes:
- Michigan Consumer Survey (Final) – 10:00 a.m. ET
- NAR Existing Home Sales – 10:00 a.m. ET Federal Reserve Bank of New York
While neither is “Costco-specific,” both can swing the broader consumer narrative into year-end—particularly if sentiment or housing data surprises.
Also tonight: holiday schedule clarity
In a separate Reuters report late Thursday, Nasdaq and NYSE said U.S. stock markets will remain open on Dec. 24 and Dec. 26, including an early close at 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24, despite a federal government closure order for those dates. Reuters
That’s relevant to liquidity: holiday-shortened sessions can sometimes exaggerate moves in heavily owned mega-caps like Costco.
What investors should know before the market opens Friday
Here’s the practical checklist for COST watchers going into the Dec. 19 open:
1) Watch the 52-week low “gravity.”
Costco closed at $857.59 with a cited 52-week low near $844.06. A break below recent lows could trigger more systematic selling—or invite bargain-hunters looking for a “quality pullback.” MarketBeat
2) Monitor pre-market reaction to consumer data expectations.
With Michigan sentiment and existing home sales due at 10:00 a.m. ET, pre-market positioning can get defensive, especially after today’s CPI debate over data quality. Federal Reserve Bank of New York
3) Options positioning suggests elevated hedging demand.
The spike in put buying raises the odds of sharper intraday moves if key levels break—whether that’s a downside air pocket or a squeeze higher if bad news doesn’t arrive. MarketBeat
4) The narrative battle remains unchanged: execution vs. valuation.
Costco’s quarter showed real momentum in sales and membership fees, but the market is still treating valuation as the deciding factor. Costco Investor Relations
5) Know Costco’s next scheduled catalysts.
From Costco’s investor relations events pages, upcoming milestones include:
- December Sales Results:Jan. 7, 2026 (1:15 p.m. PT) Costco Investor Relations
- Shareholders’ Meeting:Jan. 15, 2026 (2:00 p.m. PT) Costco Investor Relations
- Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call:March 5, 2026 (2:00 p.m. PT) Costco Investor Relations
Those dates matter because Costco’s monthly sales updates often reset short-term sentiment—especially if traffic and renewal-rate narratives intensify.
Bottom line for COST after hours: calm tape, high-stakes setup
Costco stock is ending Dec. 18 with a quiet after-hours move—down just a fraction after the close—yet the setup is anything but quiet.
The stock is hovering close to 52-week lows, options traders are paying up for protection, and the market is weighing a cooler-but-complicated inflation print against a retailer that is still producing strong sales, comps, and membership fee growth. Costco Investor Relations
