NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 10:25 a.m. ET — Market closed (U.S. exchanges closed for the weekend)
Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) heads into the weekend with investors weighing fresh analyst commentary against a still-strong fundamental backdrop: solid comparable sales, accelerating digital demand, and the durability of a membership-driven model that has historically held up well in uneven consumer cycles.
With U.S. stock markets closed today, attention shifts to what moved Costco shares in the most recent session—and what could matter when trading resumes on Monday, Dec. 29.
Costco stock: where shares last traded
Costco shares closed Friday at $873.35 and were slightly lower in after-hours trading ($873.00). [1]
That modest move comes after a volatile December stretch in which Costco has seen sharp single-day swings—often following changes in analyst ratings and investor interpretation of membership trends—despite the company posting a quarterly beat earlier this month. [2]
The latest headlines in the last 24–48 hours: analyst updates dominate
The most market-relevant Costco developments in the last two days have been research notes and valuation-focused debate—common for mega-cap retail names into year-end, when liquidity can be thinner and “multiple” arguments (what a stock should trade at) can move prices quickly.
1) Wells Fargo trims Costco price target to $900
A widely circulated note shows Wells Fargo analyst Edward Kelly lowering Costco’s price target to $900 from $1,000 while keeping an Equal Weight rating, citing a “mixed” 2026 setup across retail even as some categories remain constructive. [3]
That kind of revision matters because Costco’s valuation has been a central point of contention: bulls argue the membership engine deserves a premium, while skeptics argue the premium is already “fully priced” unless growth re-accelerates.
2) Zacks flags estimate revisions and premium valuation
A Zacks-focused market note published Friday emphasized earnings estimate revisions as the near-term driver to watch. Among the key figures cited:
- Current-quarter EPS estimate: $4.49 per share (about +11.7% year over year)
- Current fiscal-year EPS estimate: $20.09 (about +11.7% year over year)
- Next fiscal-year EPS estimate: $21.89 (about +9% year over year)
- Zacks Rank: #3 (Hold)
- Value Style Score: D (suggesting Costco trades at a premium to peers) [4]
Zacks also pointed to expected revenue growth, with a current-quarter sales estimate around $68.75 billion (+7.9% year over year). [5]
3) Bullish weekend reading: “buy the dip” arguments gain traction
A widely read bullish take from The Motley Fool argued investor worries may be “overblown,” focusing on Costco’s still-high renewal rates and strong quarter. The article also cited commentary from Costco CFO Gary Millerchip about improving renewal rates among digitally signed-up members, while acknowledging renewal rates may remain under modest pressure in coming quarters. [6]
“Our goal is to continue to improve renewal rates by improving engagement with members who signed up digitally.” [7]
4) Operations-focused headline: Costco “breaks records”
A separate consumer-facing headline from TheStreet described Costco as “breaking records” across areas like sales and membership-related metrics—more of a sentiment driver than a fundamentals update, but still part of the weekend news flow many retail investors will see in Google Discover. [8]
5) New filings coverage: small institutional position changes
MarketBeat published filings-driven items this weekend highlighting position changes by smaller advisory firms, including one report saying Rice Hall James & Associates increased its Costco stake during the third quarter (a backward-looking disclosure, but still part of the current news cycle). [9]
The fundamental anchor: Costco’s Q1 beat still sets the tone
Analyst debate is happening on top of a quarter that, by most measures, was strong.
In its first quarter fiscal 2026 results (quarter ended Nov. 23, 2025), Costco reported:
- Net sales: $65.98 billion (up 8.2%)
- Total revenue: $67.307 billion
- Net income: $2.001 billion
- Diluted EPS: $4.50
- Total company comparable sales:+6.4%
- Digitally-enabled comparable sales:+20.5% (excluding gas price and FX impacts) [10]
Reuters’ coverage of the same results highlighted that Costco beat expectations as shoppers sought value ahead of the holidays. Reuters also quoted Greg Zakowicz, an ecommerce and retail advisor to Omnisend, who framed the quarter as evidence consumers are still spending—but doing so more carefully. [11]
The real battleground for COST: membership strength vs. valuation
Costco’s investment case has long rested on a simple formula: membership fees + high-volume, low-margin retail + operational efficiency.
The market’s 2025–2026 question is whether that formula can deliver enough growth to justify a premium multiple—especially as investors compare Costco to faster-growing segments of the market.
Recent commentary has put a spotlight on:
- Renewal rates and digital sign-ups: The CFO has indicated digitally acquired members may renew at a slower pace initially, creating a near-term “mix” headwind even if absolute renewal levels remain strong. [12]
- Earnings and sales trajectory: Zacks’ figures imply steady growth (high single digits for revenue; high single digits to low double digits for EPS), not hypergrowth—often the setup for valuation debates. [13]
- Street-level price target dispersion: Wells Fargo’s $900 target and Equal Weight stance sits more cautiously than the “buy-the-dip” narrative—an example of why COST can swing on incremental research notes. [14]
Insider transactions: what the filings show
While not part of the last 48 hours, investors frequently revisit insider filings when a stock is under pressure.
Two recent official SEC Form 4s (filed earlier this quarter) show:
- William Richard Wilcox (Executive Vice President) reported selling 2,400 shares on Nov. 7, 2025 at $930.13, leaving 2,000 shares beneficially owned. [15]
- Tiffany Marie Barbre (Principal Accounting Officer) reported a sale of 1,239.383 shares on Oct. 24, 2025 at a weighted average price of $934.6204, alongside other transactions including tax-related withholdings tied to equity compensation. [16]
Insider selling doesn’t automatically signal trouble—executives sell for many reasons—but in a premium-valued stock, these disclosures can influence sentiment when investors are already debating valuation.
What investors should know before the next session
With the market closed today, the next potential catalysts are less about headlines and more about positioning going into Monday and what investors choose to prioritize.
Here are the key items to watch before Monday’s open:
- The “$900 line” and the analyst narrative
Wells Fargo’s $900 target is close enough to current levels to become a psychological reference point for Monday trading—especially if more firms reiterate or adjust targets. [17] - Estimate revisions and forward guidance expectations
Zacks’ update underscores that small changes in EPS forecasts can move high-multiple names quickly. If you’re holding COST into year-end, it’s worth watching whether consensus estimates keep drifting higher (supportive) or flatten out (often a headwind). [18] - Renewal-rate commentary will likely stay in focus
Even bullish coverage acknowledges that renewal-rate optics can dominate the conversation, particularly when the stock is trying to stabilize after a weak 12-month stretch. [19] - Know the next earnings window
According to Zacks’ earnings calendar, Costco’s next earnings release is expected March 5, 2026—a date long-term investors may anchor to as the next major fundamentals reset. [20] - Expect thin, headline-sensitive trading into year-end
The last week of December can amplify moves in mega-cap consumer names when liquidity is lighter and investors rebalance. That environment tends to reward disciplined risk management—especially in stocks where valuation is the main argument.
Bottom line: Costco stock enters the weekend in a familiar tug-of-war—fundamentals that still look solid versus a valuation that invites scrutiny. If Monday brings any fresh price-target changes, COST can move quickly, even without new company news—so investors should be ready for a headline-driven open. [21]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.tipranks.com, 4. finviz.com, 5. finviz.com, 6. www.fool.com, 7. www.fool.com, 8. swingtradebot.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. investor.costco.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.fool.com, 13. finviz.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. finviz.com, 19. www.fool.com, 20. www.zacks.com, 21. investor.costco.com
