Costco Stock (COST) on December 3, 2025: Tariff Lawsuit, AA Credit Rating and 2026 Forecasts

As of Wednesday, December 3, 2025, Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) sits around $920–$925 per share, with a market capitalization just over $400 billion. The warehouse giant’s stock is roughly 14–16% below its 52‑week high near $1,078, yet it still trades at a rich price-to-earnings ratio around 50 and a dividend yield of about 0.56%. ^[1]

At the same time, Costco is battling the U.S. government in court over Trump-era tariffs, boasting fresh AA credit ratings, and heading into 2026 with double‑digit membership-fee growth and solid sales momentum. ^[2]

Below is a detailed look at today’s COST stock setup, the new tariff lawsuit, the latest sales and membership trends, analyst forecasts, and what all of it could mean for investors watching Costco into 2026.

Costco stock today: rare underperformance, premium valuation

MarketBeat’s real‑time data shows Costco trading near $922 in afternoon trading on December 3, with a 52‑week range of about $871.71 to $1,078.23, a P/E ratio close to 50.7, and a dividend yield of 0.56% (annual dividend of $5.20). ^[3]

Despite occasional headlines calling 2025 a “mixed” year for consumer staples, Costco’s business fundamentals remain strong, but the stock has been unusually subdued:

Year‑to‑date gain: roughly 1–2%, far below its usual pattern of easily beating the broader market. ^[4]
Valuation: trailing P/E around 50x and forward P/E in the mid‑40s, significantly richer than many retail and staples peers. TechStock²+1
Beta: near 1.0, so Costco moves roughly with the market, not like a high‑beta growth stock. ^[5]

Analysts and commentators repeatedly describe Costco’s current situation as “elite business, elite valuation”: operational performance remains excellent, but the shares price in a lot of that excellence already. TechStock²+1

Big headline: Costco sues the U.S. over Trump‑era tariffs

The most important new development for COST this week is legal, not operational.

What Costco is suing over

Costco has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade seeking to preserve its right to reclaim tariffs it paid under President Donald Trump’s emergency tariff regime, imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). ^[6]

Key points from Reuters, AP and Newsweek:

Costco argues the administration overstepped its statutory authority by using emergency powers to levy broad import tariffs, including on goods from China, Mexico and Canada. ^[7]
Lower courts (the Court of International Trade and the Federal Circuit) have already ruled that similar “Liberation Day” tariffs exceeded presidential authority under IEEPA, setting the stage for a Supreme Court review. ^[8]
The Supreme Court is now weighing whether IEEPA actually authorizes these tariffs in a consolidated case involving multiple importers. ^[9]
Costco says U.S. Customs and Border Protection refused to delay “liquidation” of its tariff entries. Once those entries are liquidated, duties become final and nonrefundable, so Costco is suing to avoid losing refund rights if the tariffs are ultimately struck down. ^[10]

In interviews cited by Newsweek, trade-law experts suggest there is a meaningful chance that at least some of the tariffs will be ruled illegal, though the scope of refunds—whether they apply only to named plaintiffs or to all affected importers—remains uncertain. ^[11]

Why it matters for Costco stock

For Costco, the lawsuit is less about politics and more about money and margins:

The company imports a large share of its merchandise; one estimate from Costco’s CFO earlier this year put imports at roughly one-third of U.S. sales, including categories directly hit by Trump’s tariffs. ^[12]
Tariff refunds, if granted, could be material one‑off tailwinds for cash flow and earnings, especially given Costco’s scale. ^[13]
In the meantime, Costco has leaned heavily on its Kirkland Signature private‑label brand and selective price changes to shield shoppers from tariff shock, accepting margin pressure in some discretionary categories while protecting staples. ^[14]

There is also a reputational angle: certain MAGA‑aligned figures and outlets are already calling for boycotts, accusing Costco of “attacking” Trump with its lawsuit. ^[15] So far, there’s no sign that this has meaningfully impacted traffic or sales, but it adds a layer of political noise around the stock.

For investors, the tariff case looks like a classic asymmetric event: limited downside (status quo tariffs continue) versus potentially significant upside if the Supreme Court curtails IEEPA tariff powers and Costco qualifies for broad refunds.

Sales momentum: strong October and a key November update today

While the lawsuit dominates headlines, Costco’s core business continues to hum.

October 2025: another strong month

On November 5, Costco reported October net sales of $21.75 billion, up 8.6% year‑over‑year. Net sales for the first nine weeks of fiscal 2026 reached $48.33 billion, up 8.3% from a year earlier. ^[16]

Comparable sales for October were robust across geographies, and digitally enabled sales (e‑commerce plus buy‑online services) grew in the mid‑teens. ^[17] Zacks and other analysts have framed these results as evidence that Costco’s value‑focused model is still resonating, even as consumers grapple with higher borrowing costs and political uncertainty. ^[18]

November 2025 sales: market watching closely

Costco is scheduled to release its November 2025 monthly sales update today, December 3, at 1:15 p.m. Pacific Time. ^[19]

That report will offer the first detailed look at:

How Costco performed over the Thanksgiving and early holiday period
Whether the strong October sales trend carried into November
Any commentary on tariff‑related pricing or consumer behavior heading into December

Investors often treat Costco’s monthly sales releases as mini‑earnings events, and a positive November print could reinforce the view that the company is weathering tariff and macro headwinds better than most retailers.

Membership engine: fee growth vs. softening renewals

Costco’s membership model remains the heart of the investment story, and recent data shows both strengths and emerging questions.

Membership fees are surging

Multiple reports this fall note that Costco’s membership fee income jumped around 14% year‑over‑year in fiscal 2025, supported by a 10%+ increase in fee levels and strong sign‑ups and upgrades—especially into higher‑tier Executive memberships. ^[20]

Analysts at Nasdaq and others expect membership fees to grow another ~9% in fiscal 2026, even without a fresh across‑the‑board price hike, thanks to continued member growth, mix shift toward Executive cards, and better auto‑renewal penetration. ^[21]

Renewal rates: still elite, but off the peak

The flip side of higher fees: renewal rates have ticked down slightly from record levels.

Recent disclosures put U.S. and Canada renewal rates around 92–92.3%, down from about 92.7% a few quarters ago.
Global renewal rates are hovering around 89.8–90.2%, versus a bit above 90% previously. ^[22]

These are still extraordinarily high renewal levels by any retail standard, but analysts are watching closely to see whether younger, more digitally‑oriented members renew at the same clip as Costco’s older core customer base. ^[23]

Costco is responding with:

Expanded auto‑renew options
Targeted digital communication and perks (like extended hours or Instacart credits for some Executive members)
Ongoing improvements to the omnichannel experience, including click‑and‑collect and online grocery enhancements ^[24]

So far, most coverage still characterizes Costco’s membership economics as a powerful, durable moat, though the slight dip in renewals is a metric to watch through 2026.

Credit strength: AA ratings from S&P and Fitch

If the tariff headlines introduce uncertainty, Costco’s balance sheet and credit profile do the opposite.

In January 2025, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Costco’s long‑term issuer rating from A+ to AA, citing strong execution, durable cash flows, and conservative leverage. ^[25]
In November 2025, Fitch Ratings assigned an AA Issuer Default Rating with a stable outlook, highlighting Costco’s resilient business model, ample liquidity and modest debt load. ^[26]

Together, these ratings place Costco among a small club of global retailers with very high-grade credit, giving it excellent access to capital for new warehouses, technology and shareholder returns.

Institutional investors: big money still likes COST

Recent 13F filings show that large asset managers aren’t shying away from Costco at current prices.

Invesco Ltd. increased its Costco stake by 9.8% in Q2, adding 383,887 shares to reach 4.29 million shares worth about $4.25 billion, making COST the firm’s 10th‑largest holding. ^[27]
Edgestream Partners L.P. boosted its stake by 46.1% to 6,374 shares, while other major institutions like Vanguard, Geode Capital and Norges Bank also added or initiated large positions. ^[28]
At the same time, 1832 Asset Management trimmed its position by 7.7%, but still holds over 270,000 shares worth roughly $268 million. ^[29]

Overall, institutional ownership stands around 68–69% of Costco’s float, and over the past year institutional buyers have outnumbered sellers, with net inflows north of $20 billion into COST shares according to MarketBeat‑compiled data. ^[30]

Short interest, by contrast, is quite low, around 1.6% of the float, underscoring that few investors are willing to bet aggressively against Costco despite the lofty valuation. ^[31]

Wall Street view: “Moderate Buy” to “Buy” with mid‑teens upside

Across platforms, the analyst consensus on COST remains firmly positive.

Consensus ratings and targets

MarketBeat:
- Rating: Moderate Buy
- Coverage: 32 analysts (19 Buy, 13 Hold, 0 Sell)
- Average 12‑month price target:$1,027.75, implying about 11–12% upside from current levels. ^[32]
StockAnalysis.com:
- Rating: Buy
- Analysts: 25–26
- Average target: about $1,069, implying roughly 16% upside with a range from $907 to $1,225. ^[33]
MarketWatch/Nasdaq aggregates:
- Average target: around $1,070–$1,076
- Average recommendation: Overweight or Buy across roughly 35 ratings. ^[34]
Zacks:
- Average brokerage recommendation (ABR): about 1.9 on a 1–5 scale (1 = Strong Buy, 5 = Strong Sell), equivalent to a “Buy / Moderate Buy” stance. ^[35]

Notably, no major firm currently rates Costco a Sell, and the bulk of target prices cluster in the low‑to‑mid $1,000s, suggesting the Street sees mid‑teens total return potential over the next year, including dividends. ^[36]

Stand‑out analyst calls

Recent high‑profile calls include:

Telsey Advisory Group reaffirming an “Outperform” rating with a $1,100 target (roughly 19% upside) on December 1. ^[37]
Other firms such as Argus, BTIG, JPMorgan, Oppenheimer, Mizuho and Citigroup maintain targets spanning roughly $950 to $1,200, with most ratings in the Buy/Outperform zone. TechStock²+1

Analysts also expect earnings per share to grow around 9% in the coming year, from roughly $18.03 to about $19.7, supported by continued warehouse expansion, membership-fee growth and steady mid‑single‑digit comparable sales. ^[38]

Technical picture: upgraded to a “buy candidate,” but still in a downtrend channel

From a technical-analysis standpoint, Costco looks cautiously bullish in the short term but still faces a downward trend channel.

A fresh note from StockInvest.us on December 2 highlights that: ^[39]

COST rose 1.10% on Tuesday, December 2, closing at $922.03 after trading between $905.34 and $922.50.
The stock has gained in 6 of the last 10 trading days, up about 1% over the past two weeks.
Price currently sits in the upper part of a falling short‑term trend, which often presents a potential selling zone for short‑term traders unless the stock breaks above the trend line (around the mid‑$920s).
The service’s model upgraded Costco from “Hold” to a “Buy candidate”, thanks to bullish signals from short‑ and long‑term moving averages and a positive three‑month MACD.

However, their quantitative forecast still projects a possible 3‑month pullback of roughly 5–6%, with a 90% probability range between about $832 and $874, assuming the current falling trend remains intact. ^[40]

In other words, the charts are turning friendlier, but they’re not yet signaling a clean breakout to new highs.

Upcoming catalysts: November sales and Q1 FY2026 earnings

Two near‑term events are likely to shape COST’s trading into year‑end:

November 2025 sales update – December 3, 2025 (today)
- As noted, Costco will report its November sales after the market close, giving investors a read on holiday‑season momentum. ^[41]
Q1 FY2026 earnings – December 11, 2025
- Costco’s first‑quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release and conference call are scheduled for December 11 at 1:15 p.m. Pacific. ^[42]
- Wall Street will watch closely for updates on tariff impacts, membership renewals, digital growth, and any commentary on pricing strategy in light of the legal and macro backdrop.

Strong numbers (and a reassuring tone on tariffs) could help COST break out of its 2025 funk, while any sign of slowing comps or more pronounced renewal pressure could reinforce concerns about the premium valuation.

The bull case for Costco stock

Supporters of COST heading into 2026 point to several key pillars:

Membership fortress: Renewal rates around 90–92% and steadily rising fee income give Costco a high‑visibility, high‑margin revenue stream that most retailers can’t match. ^[43]
Consistent earnings growth: Over 2022–2025, Costco’s net income has grown at an average of ~11% per year, with EPS growth in a similar range, and the company has beaten earnings estimates 9 of the last 10 quarters. ^[44]
Global expansion & e‑commerce: Costco opened 27 new warehouses in FY2025, bringing the total to about 914, and plans roughly 35 more in FY2026, while e‑commerce and digitally enabled sales are growing in the mid‑teens. ^[45]
Tariff optionality: If the Supreme Court curbs IEEPA tariffs and Costco recovers a meaningful share of past duties, it could provide a sizeable one‑time boost to cash flow and potentially fund further special dividends or accelerated investment. ^[46]
Balance sheet strength: AA credit ratings from S&P and Fitch, modest leverage, and strong free cash flow give Costco ample flexibility to weather macro shocks and continue rewarding shareholders over the long term. ^[47]

For long‑term, quality‑focused investors, Costco still looks like a rare combination of durable business model, disciplined management and global runway.

The bear case: valuation, politics and a “worst year vs. the S&P in decades”

Skeptics, however, see reasons for caution:

Rich valuation: Even after a 2025 pullback, Costco trades at 50x trailing earnings and mid‑40s forward, a large premium to both retail and staples peers. Any disappointment in growth, membership or tariffs could compress that multiple. TechStock²+2MarketBeat+2
Relative performance: Some commentators note that 2025 is on pace to be Costco’s worst year vs. the S&P 500 in more than two decades, with the index up double digits while COST has barely moved or even slipped modestly. TechStock²+1
Softening renewals: Although still high, the slight decline in renewal rates could signal that higher fees and a more price‑sensitive younger cohort might eventually slow membership momentum. ^[48]
Tariff & political risk: If the Supreme Court upholds Trump’s use of IEEPA tariffs, Costco gets no refund windfall and must continue navigating elevated import costs—while also being drawn into politicized boycotts from some segments of the population. ^[49]
Short‑term technicals: The stock still sits in a falling trend channel despite recent strength, and some models project potential downside into the high‑$800s/low‑$800s range over the next few months if that channel isn’t broken. ^[50]

From this perspective, Costco remains an excellent business, but the margin of safety in the stock price is thin, especially if 2026 growth comes in at the low end of expectations.

Bottom line: how to think about COST on December 3, 2025

Putting it all together:

Costco stock today offers mid‑teens 12‑month upside according to Wall Street targets, backed by high‑quality earnings, AA‑rated balance sheet strength, and a sticky membership base. ^[51]
The new tariff lawsuit introduces both uncertainty and potential upside; if Costco prevails alongside other plaintiffs after a Supreme Court ruling, it could enjoy substantial tariff refunds plus lower go‑forward import costs. ^[52]
Yet the stock’s premium valuation, modest YTD performance, and softening renewal rates mean the path may not be smooth, and short‑term traders could still see volatility—especially around today’s November sales release and next week’s Q1 FY2026 earnings call. ^[53]

For long‑horizon investors comfortable with volatility and political noise, Costco remains widely viewed as a high‑quality compounder with strong prospects into 2026 and beyond. For more valuation‑sensitive or short‑term‑focused traders, however, the current setup may argue for waiting for a better entry point—or at least watching how the tariff saga and upcoming results play out before committing new capital.

Either way, given the combination of headline‑driving litigation, AA credit upgrades, and key earnings catalysts in the next two weeks, Costco is likely to stay front‑and‑center on investor radar through the end of 2025.