Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) shares were trading around $873 in late trading at 7:25 p.m. ET on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, as a holiday-thinned market heads into the final stretch of the year.
That backdrop matters. U.S. stocks just wrapped a quiet post-Christmas session near record territory, with the S&P 500 ending at 6,929.94 after light volume—exactly the kind of environment where single-stock moves can look bigger (or smaller) than they really are. AP News
For Costco investors, the story into the next session is straightforward: fundamentals remain strong—especially membership-fee growth and digital acceleration—but the stock is still wrestling with premium valuation expectations and a market that’s increasingly sensitive to “good vs. great” results.
Costco stock price today: where COST stands heading into next week
As of late Friday, COST hovered near $873, up modestly from the prior close.
Key reference points investors are watching:
- 52-week range: roughly $844 to $1,078 (Costco remains about 19% below its 52-week high, and only a few percent above the 52-week low). Investing
- Market cap: about $387 billion (approximate, per major market data providers). Yahoo Finance
- Valuation: Costco trades at a mid-to-high-40s trailing P/E by several commonly cited datasets, reinforcing the “great business / expensive stock” debate around COST. Yahoo Finance
Costco’s relative stock performance has also been a talking point. Multiple outlets noted the shares have lagged the broader market in 2025, even as the business continues to post solid sales and earnings growth. Investopedia
Why Costco’s fundamentals keep getting attention: Q1 FY2026 results in detail
Costco’s most recent major catalyst was its first quarter fiscal 2026 report (quarter ended Nov. 23, 2025), which showed a company still executing well in a value-focused retail environment. Costco Investor Relations
Highlights from Costco’s filing and earnings materials:
- Total revenue:$67.307B (up from $62.151B a year earlier) Costco Investor Relations
- Net sales:$65.978B (up from $60.985B) Costco Investor Relations
- Membership fees:$1.329B (up from $1.166B) — about 14% growth year over year Costco Investor Relations
- Net income:$2.001B (vs. $1.798B prior year) Costco Investor Relations
- EPS (diluted):$4.50 (vs. $4.04 prior year) Costco Investor Relations
- Comparable sales:+6.4% total company for the quarter; digitally-enabled comps +20.5% Costco Investor Relations
Reuters also reported that Costco’s quarterly revenue and profit topped estimates, with LSEG data showing results ahead of consensus on key lines like EPS. Reuters
“Stretching the dollar” remains the core Costco narrative
One reason Costco continues to draw bullish commentary is that it’s positioned for a consumer who still wants quality—but also wants value.
Reuters quoted Greg Zakowicz, an ecommerce and retail advisor at Omnisend, framing Costco’s quarter as a reflection of how many households are shopping into the holiday season: shoppers “are looking to stretch their dollar further,” which plays into Costco’s model. Reuters
Membership fees: the engine Wall Street tends to reward most
Costco’s membership model is often described as its “secret weapon” because recurring fees can support low merchandise margins while keeping prices aggressive.
Two developments matter here:
1) Membership fee increases are now baked in
Costco implemented a long-anticipated fee increase effective Sept. 1, 2024:
- U.S./Canada Gold Star & Business memberships rose $5 to $65
- Executive memberships rose from $120 to $130
- Executive 2% reward cap increased from $1,000 to $1,250 Costco Investor Relations
2) The results are showing up in the numbers
In Q1 FY2026, membership fees rose to $1.329B from $1.166B a year prior—one of the most closely watched lines for long-term Costco bulls. Costco Investor Relations
Earlier, in Costco’s fiscal Q4 2025 reporting cycle, Reuters quoted Arun Sundaram of CFRA Research arguing the company appeared to be reinvesting part of the membership fee increase into sharper pricing while still benefiting shareholders—calling it a “win-win.” Reuters
Digital growth is no longer a side story at Costco
Costco’s digitally-enabled comparable sales figure (+20.5% in Q1 FY2026) continues to stand out—especially because investors historically viewed Costco as an in-warehouse “treasure hunt” retailer first. Costco Investor Relations
Reuters also pointed to operational drivers behind the quarter, including Costco’s performance in same-day delivery, with partnerships that include Instacart in the U.S. and Uber Eats/DoorDash internationally. Reuters
One of the more unusual retail headlines this year has been Costco’s gold and silver bullion offerings, which Business Insider reported as a meaningful e-commerce traffic-and-sales driver—though typically at low margins. Business Insider
Analyst forecasts and Wall Street calls: the range is wide right now
If you’re looking for a clean takeaway from the analyst community heading into the next session, it’s this: most analysts remain constructive on Costco, but valuation is pressuring near-term targets.
Recent upgrades and downgrades highlight the debate
In the wake of earnings:
- Northcoast reportedly upgraded Costco to Buy with a $1,100 price target (per a Wall Street upgrades roundup). Yahoo Finance
- Truist cut its price target (while maintaining a more cautious stance), citing valuation and member-growth concerns. Investing
- Roth Capital downgraded Costco to “Sell” with a $769 target, pointing to signs of slowing membership metrics and competition pressure. Investors
Consensus: “Moderate Buy,” but with meaningful dispersion
MarketBeat’s tracking shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus (with buys outnumbering holds and sells), which aligns with the idea that Costco is still viewed as a high-quality compounder—just not always a cheap one. MarketBeat
Separately, other summaries (including Investing.com’s write-up of analyst commentary) show price targets spanning roughly the mid-$600s to above $1,200, underscoring how sensitive fair value is to assumptions about growth and how long Costco can hold an elevated multiple. Investing
Dividends and shareholder returns: what income-focused investors should note
Costco is not typically bought for yield, but dividends still matter—especially when the stock is expensive and investors want tangible return components.
- Costco declared a $1.30 quarterly dividend payable in November 2025 (per company announcements and dividend schedules). Costco Investor Relations
Investors also keep a close eye on whether Costco will repeat the special dividend playbook it has used periodically in the past. Data providers and coverage referencing dividend history highlight Costco’s prior $15.00 special dividend paid in early 2024, which is part of why “special dividend watch” tends to resurface after strong results. Morningstar
If you’re trading COST, the market is closed now—here’s what to know before the next session
With the regular U.S. stock market session finished for the day and markets closed through the weekend, Costco investors should treat this as a setup phase rather than a “nothing to do” period.
1) Expect thin liquidity and sharper opening moves
Year-end trading often comes with lighter participation, and Reuters noted that markets have been moving in a low-volume, late-year pattern around the so-called “Santa Claus rally” window. Reuters
In practical terms: if Costco breaks either direction at Monday’s open, it may reflect positioning and flows as much as it reflects new fundamentals.
2) Watch macro catalysts that can move “defensive growth” retail
Costco often trades like a hybrid: part consumer staple defensiveness, part growth stock valuation.
Reuters’ week-ahead outlook emphasized two macro forces that can ripple into high-multiple names:
- Markets watching for Fed guidance, including Fed minutes next week
- Ongoing debate about the path of interest rates and the market’s rotation between tech and non-tech leadership Reuters
If rate expectations shift, COST’s multiple can compress or expand even without Costco-specific news.
3) Put Costco’s next catalysts on your calendar
For fundamental investors, the next session isn’t just “Monday’s open”—it’s the next information drop that can change the story:
- Monthly sales updates (Costco historically publishes periodic sales results; November sales were released earlier this month) GlobeNewswire
- The next earnings cadence and any commentary on:
- Membership renewal and paid member growth
- Digital momentum and delivery economics
- International warehouse productivity and expansion pace Costco Investor Relations
4) Know what “risk” looks like for Costco right now
Going into the next session, the bear case generally clusters around a few themes:
- Valuation risk: Costco’s P/E remains elevated versus many retailers, which can make “beats” less impactful if guidance isn’t strong enough. Yahoo Finance
- Membership momentum scrutiny: when any analyst notes slowing renewal or member growth, the market tends to respond quickly because membership fees are central to the bull thesis. Investors
- Competitive pressure: Walmart/Sam’s Club and other club formats remain key comps, especially as value-seeking behavior broadens. Reuters
Bottom line: Costco’s business is strong—COST stock is about expectations
Costco is coming into the next session with clear operational momentum—mid-single-digit comps, double-digit membership-fee growth, and accelerating digital performance—all backed by another quarter of earnings growth. Costco Investor Relations
But the stock’s near-term direction may hinge less on “Is Costco executing?” and more on “How much execution is already priced in?” With the broader market near record levels into year-end and investors focused on rate expectations, Costco’s premium valuation means the margin for disappointment is still real, even when the company posts objectively strong numbers.
