Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) is heading into the final stretch of 2025 in a familiar position operationally—strong sales, loyal members, and steady expansion—yet in a less familiar spot in the market: trading close to its 52‑week low after a year of choppy performance.
As of Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025, Costco shares were trading around $853 in late U.S. trading, up modestly on the day. [1] But the bigger story is the reset behind the scenes: even after Costco delivered a first‑quarter fiscal 2026 earnings beat and posted mid‑single‑digit comparable sales growth, the stock has faced questions about valuation, membership momentum at the margins, and what kind of upside remains after years of premium pricing. [2]
Below is the latest Costco stock news, forecasts, and analysis shaping the conversation on 12/23/2025—and what investors are watching next.
Costco stock price today: COST trades near $853, close to its 52‑week low
Costco stock hovered near $852–$853 on Dec. 23, with the session’s range roughly $847 to $854 and volume under 1 million shares by late afternoon in the data feed. [3]
Market data trackers show Costco’s 52‑week range at roughly $844 to $1,078, highlighting how far the stock has pulled back from its highs even as the business continues to grow. [4]
Valuation remains part of the debate. One widely followed snapshot showed Costco at about 45–46x trailing earnings and ~41x forward earnings, levels that effectively price in continued execution and resilience even if the broader consumer environment softens. [5]
The fundamental anchor: Costco’s Q1 FY2026 results beat expectations
The most important recent catalyst for COST stock is still the company’s first quarter fiscal 2026 report (the quarter ended Nov. 23, 2025), released on Dec. 11.
From Costco’s own filing and release:
- Net sales:$65.98B, up 8.2% year over year
- Membership fees:$1.329B
- Total revenue:$67.307B
- Net income:$2.001B
- Diluted EPS:$4.50
- Comparable sales (adjusted for gas & FX):+6.4%
- Digitally-enabled comp sales:+20.5% [6]
Reuters’ report on the same quarter emphasized that Costco’s results topped Wall Street expectations for both revenue and profit, and highlighted strength in same‑store sales relative to analyst estimates compiled by LSEG. [7]
Just as notable for the long-term narrative: Costco reported it operated 923 warehouses globally at the time of the release, underscoring how large the base already is—yet also how much execution matters as comparisons get tougher and the market demands consistency. [8]
Why Costco keeps winning the shopping trip: value, private label, and convenience partnerships
Operationally, the “Costco story” remains straightforward: shoppers come for value and trust, and the company leans on scale, private label, and efficiency.
Reuters pointed to Costco’s focus on value and its flagship private label Kirkland Signature as a continuing draw for members looking to stretch budgets, while also citing commentary that higher-income shoppers remain an important part of Costco’s market-share gains. [9]
The company is also leaning into convenience beyond the warehouse. Reuters noted Costco’s benefits from same-day delivery partnerships (including Instacart in the U.S.) as well as Uber Eats and DoorDash internationally—a reminder that “Costco growth” increasingly includes the digital layer, not just new buildings. [10]
The membership engine: why renewals (and even tiny changes) matter for COST stock
Costco doesn’t just sell groceries and big-screen TVs—it sells access to a high-trust value ecosystem. That’s why the market obsesses over membership trends, renewal rates, and the economics of fee income.
A Business Insider analysis framed Costco’s economics bluntly: Costco’s merchandise markup is far lower than typical retailers (around ~11% in the piece), while membership fees are described as close to pure profit. The same report cited over $5.3B in membership fees from 68.3 million households and 12.7 million businesses, with renewal rates around 92.2% in the U.S. and 89.7% worldwide. [11]
That theme shows up in Wall Street notes as well. A TD Cowen commentary carried by Investing.com said Costco’s U.S. renewal rate was 92.2% in Q1 FY2026, ticking slightly lower versus the prior quarter and the year-ago period in that analysis, and it estimated membership fee income at approximately 55% of EBIT in the quarter—one reason the market watches renewals so closely. [12]
This is also where the recent tension around COST stock has formed: a great business can still be a volatile stock if investors sense that a few “key metrics” are drifting the wrong way, even slightly—especially at a premium multiple.
Holiday shopping data on Dec. 23 adds context for Costco and the retail trade
On Dec. 23, 2025, Reuters published fresh read-through data from the card networks that matters for the entire retail space—including Costco.
- Visa said U.S. retail spending (excluding autos, gas, and restaurants) rose 4.2% year over year from Nov. 1 to Dec. 21.
- Mastercard said sales rose 3.9% year over year over the same period (using a broader measure including retail and food service).
- Both noted online sales growth outpacing brick-and-mortar, though Visa said physical stores still represented 73% of transactions versus 27% online. [13]
For Costco investors, the key takeaway isn’t that this data “belongs” to Costco—it doesn’t. But it reinforces two themes that often help warehouse clubs: consumers chasing promotions and value, and continued strength in categories Costco sells well (electronics and apparel were among the leaders in Visa’s data). [14]
Analyst forecasts for Costco stock: consensus stays “Buy,” with targets clustering around $1,050
Despite the stock’s pullback toward the low end of its annual range, broad analyst sentiment remains constructive.
One widely cited compilation showed:
- Analyst consensus rating: “Buy”
- Average 12‑month price target: about $1,051 (roughly +23% from around $852–$853)
- Target range: roughly $769 (low) to $1,225 (high) [15]
That same tracker also summarized recent notable actions, including a Wells Fargo target reduction (to $900, “Hold”) and a Roth Capital downgrade to a more negative stance with a $769 target—two datapoints that help explain why the stock can slide even when the quarter looks solid on the surface. [16]
Recent price target moves and calls that investors are citing
A few of the most discussed notes circulating in December:
- Bernstein raised its price target to $1,146 and reiterated an “Outperform,” arguing that the recent weakness created an attractive entry point while also highlighting Costco’s premium valuation multiples. [17]
- TD Cowen reiterated a Buy with a $1,175 target, addressing the renewal-rate discussion and pointing to the membership mix shift and digital sign-ups as a factor in the renewal rate optics. [18]
- The Bernstein note also referenced other bullish targets maintained around the earnings report (including Goldman Sachs and BofA Securities in that roundup), illustrating how, even among “buy” analysts, targets can differ widely based on valuation assumptions. [19]
The important nuance for readers: price targets are not forecasts carved in stone—they are frameworks based on assumptions about comps, membership growth, margins, and what multiple the market will pay.
The valuation debate heats up: “best-in-class” execution vs. multiple compression risk
On Dec. 23, 2025, Seeking Alpha’s Costco analysis captured the core push-and-pull in one line: Costco may be an exceptional operator, but valuation can cap prospective returns. [20]
The same analysis suggested expectations of high single-digit sales growth and low double-digit EPS growth, while arguing that margin expansion is structurally constrained by Costco’s model. It also argued that at around a 41x multiple, modeled multi‑year returns could be modest unless growth surprises to the upside or the valuation resets in a favorable way. [21]
This aligns with the broader December narrative: Costco is being priced less like an ordinary retailer and more like a “durable compounding machine.” When investors are confident, that can support a premium. When confidence wobbles—even slightly—premium stocks can fall quickly.
Costco financial forecasts: what analysts project for revenue and EPS
Consensus estimates compiled by major trackers point to continued growth ahead. One compilation projected:
- Revenue “this year”: about $302.7B (up ~10% from the prior year figure in that dataset)
- Revenue “next year”: about $325.6B (up ~7.6%)
- EPS “this year”: about $20.48 (up ~12%)
- EPS “next year”: about $22.57 (up ~10%) [22]
These numbers are consensus-style estimates—not Costco guidance—and they can shift with fuel prices, FX, wage pressure, the pace of new warehouse openings, and the consumer spending environment.
What bulls are watching in 2026
Even with Costco stock near the low end of its yearly range, the bullish case remains clear and consistent across research notes:
- Membership durability: high renewal rates and the “fee engine” that supports low pricing and steady reinvestment. [23]
- Sustained comp strength: Q1’s +6.4% adjusted comp growth and +20.5% digitally enabled comps reinforce that Costco is still winning trips. [24]
- Digital momentum: delivery partnerships and e-commerce-adjacent initiatives that expand Costco’s convenience without abandoning the warehouse model. [25]
- Capital return optionality: at least one bullish analyst note suggested the possibility of special dividends or incremental buybacks as potential catalysts, given Costco’s financial profile in that discussion. [26]
What bears worry about: the “great company, tough stock” setup
The bear case isn’t usually that Costco is broken. It’s that expectations are high, and any cooling in the metrics that matter most could compress the valuation multiple.
Common concerns cited in recent commentary include:
- Renewal rate optics and membership mix: even small moves can become headline risks when membership economics drive so much profit. [27]
- Premium valuation: with Costco trading at elevated earnings multiples relative to many retailers, the stock can be sensitive to sentiment and rate expectations. [28]
- Structural margin constraints: Costco’s model is designed to keep markups low, which is part of why it’s loved—yet that can limit margin expansion versus other retailers. [29]
Motley Fool’s December analysis captured the mood: despite solid business performance, Costco shares were down about 6% in 2025 as of Dec. 17 and about 20% off their peak, with valuation cited as a key issue investors shouldn’t ignore. [30]
Bottom line on Dec. 23, 2025: Costco’s business looks strong, but the stock needs a catalyst
As of 12/23/2025, Costco stock is trading like a high-quality retailer that’s being asked to prove—again—that it can deliver premium growth at a premium valuation.
The near-term narrative is defined by three forces:
- Solid operating results (Q1 FY2026 revenue and EPS growth, strong comps). [31]
- A supportive—but price-sensitive—consumer backdrop as holiday spending data shows growth with heavy promotion behavior. [32]
- A valuation and “metrics momentum” debate driving wide-ranging analyst targets from the high $700s to above $1,200. [33]
For investors tracking COST into early 2026, the next big “tell” is whether Costco can keep delivering strong comps and membership stability while the stock’s multiple stays elevated—and whether management’s execution is enough to shift the market’s focus back to fundamentals rather than valuation.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. investor.costco.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. investor.costco.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. investor.costco.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.businessinsider.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. au.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. au.investing.com, 20. seekingalpha.com, 21. seekingalpha.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.businessinsider.com, 24. investor.costco.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. au.investing.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.businessinsider.com, 30. www.fool.com, 31. investor.costco.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. stockanalysis.com
