Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) is in the spotlight again on December 17, 2025, as the stock tries to stabilize near its lowest levels in more than a year after a rare analyst “sell” call, intense debate over membership renewal trends, and a strong—but not “strong enough”—earnings report that left some investors wanting a bigger catalyst.
As of the latest available trade on December 17, Costco shares are around $862, with an intraday range of roughly $855 to $868.
Below is a full roundup of the latest Costco stock news, forecasts, and analysis circulating today—plus what investors are watching next.
Costco stock price action on Dec. 17: hovering near a 12‑month low
Costco stock is trading well below its 2025 peak and near levels that multiple research notes describe as a “reset” zone after the post-earnings pullback and downgrade-driven selling. [1]
A key reference point for traders: Costco recently set a new 52‑week low in the mid‑$800s amid the downgrade cycle, according to market coverage and filings-driven summaries. [2]
The big context: Costco posted strong Q1 results, but the stock still slid
Costco’s most recent catalyst was its fiscal 2026 first-quarter report (quarter ended Nov. 23, 2025). The headline: sales and profits beat expectations, comparable sales were solid, and e-commerce strength stood out—yet the market response was cautious. [3]
Key Q1 fiscal 2026 numbers investors are quoting
From Costco’s official release:
- Net sales:$65.98B, up 8.2% year over year
- Membership fees:$1.329B (up from $1.166B a year earlier)
- Total revenue:$67.307B
- Comparable sales (total company):6.4%
- Digitally enabled comparable sales:20.5% [4]
Reuters also highlighted that Costco beat estimates as shoppers bought both essentials and discretionary items ahead of the holidays, and noted strength supported by Costco’s value positioning and private-label strategy. [5]
Why the stock fell anyway: renewal-rate optics, valuation pressure, and “missing” catalysts
The core debate isn’t whether Costco is a high-quality retailer. It’s whether the stock price already reflects that—especially after years of multiple expansion.
Several themes repeatedly show up in today’s writeups:
1) Membership renewal rates dipped slightly
In the earnings call, Costco disclosed that at Q1 end:
- U.S. & Canada renewal rate:92.2%
- Worldwide renewal rate:89.7%
- Both were down 10 basis points from the prior quarter. [6]
Management attributed the softness largely to more members signing up online, who renew at slightly lower rates than warehouse sign-ups, while pointing to early success using targeted communications to reduce the decline. [7]
2) Investors remain sensitive to any sign of slowing momentum
Even with a beat, the market has been treating Costco like a “premium growth staple,” and that means high expectations for traffic, renewal trends, and operating leverage. Commentary this week has emphasized that Costco is still executing, but the stock is being repriced as expectations recalibrate. [8]
3) Special dividend / stock split chatter didn’t turn into an immediate catalyst
Post-earnings coverage has noted that some investors were watching for a “headline” catalyst (such as a special dividend or split discussion), and the absence of that kind of surprise can leave shares vulnerable when the valuation is rich. [9]
The “renewal rate” debate is now central to Costco stock forecasts
Today (Dec. 17), TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating and kept a $1,175 price target, directly addressing concerns about renewal rates. [10]
What made that note travel:
- TD Cowen flagged that membership fee income represented ~55% of EBIT in Q1 fiscal 2026, reinforcing how important (and resilient) the membership stream is to the model. [11]
- The firm also argued that modest changes in membership fee income do not mechanically translate into dramatic EPS shocks in the near term. [12]
This stands in sharp contrast to the bearish framing from Roth/MKM, which downgraded Costco to Sell and set a $769 price target, citing “weakening metrics” including renewal-rate drift and slowing paid member trends when adjusted for new store openings. [13]
Analyst price targets and ratings: Costco has bulls, but the bears are louder this week
Costco is experiencing an unusually public split between:
- Long-term compounder believers (who see this as a “buy-the-dip” setup), and
- Valuation/expectations skeptics (who argue the multiple is still too high if growth normalizes)
Here are the most-discussed rating actions and targets in circulation:
Bullish-to-constructive takes
- TD Cowen: Buy, $1,175 target (reiterated today). [14]
- UBS: reiterated Buy after the quarter, highlighting sustained comps and traffic, and viewing the renewal dip as manageable. [15]
- Bernstein: Outperform, raised target to $1,146, arguing the selloff created an opportunity and citing Costco’s underlying growth outlook. [16]
- Bernstein’s recap also referenced other bullish stances after earnings, including Goldman Sachs Buy ($1,171) and BofA Buy ($1,095), plus Telsey Outperform ($1,100) and Mizuho Neutral ($950). [17]
More cautious stances
- Truist: kept Hold, cut target to $926 from $1,033, noting valuation and member-growth concerns. [18]
- Roth/MKM:Sell, $769 target (the big “outlier” call that helped drive the selloff). [19]
Where “consensus” sits today
Depending on the tracker:
- MarketBeat lists an average 12‑month target around $991 (updated Dec. 17). [20]
- Benzinga’s displayed consensus target is higher (around $1,056), with a range that explicitly includes Roth’s $769 as the low end. [21]
Differences like this typically come from timing, included brokers, and how firms treat older targets, but the takeaway is consistent: Wall Street still leans positive overall—yet the dispersion has widened. [22]
Today’s technical and valuation analysis: “stabilization” vs. “still expensive”
December 17 also brought a wave of more technical or model-driven commentary:
Technical view (short-term)
A widely circulated Investing.com analysis described Costco printing a “hammer” candlestick near $857 and mapped potential resistance zones around the high‑$800s and low‑$900s, while pointing to support in the low‑$840s area. [23]
Fundamental “guru model” view
A Nasdaq-hosted Validea report rated Costco 77% under a Buffett-inspired “Patient Investor” style screen—positive overall, but not a top-tier score (Validea flags 80%+ as more compelling in that framework). [24]
DCF “fair value” view
Simply Wall St published a valuation note today suggesting Costco could be overvalued on its DCF assumptions (it cited an overvaluation estimate of roughly 48%). [25]
How to read this mix: the market is essentially arguing about whether Costco’s premium multiple is a feature (quality + durability) or a bug (limited upside unless growth accelerates further).
E-commerce and “digital Costco” is becoming part of the bull case again
One of the most investor-friendly storylines in the recent earnings cycle is that Costco is increasingly able to layer digital growth onto its warehouse engine.
A MediaPost recap of the quarter highlighted:
- Record Black Friday e-commerce sales of about $250 million (as cited by Morningstar commentary in that piece)
- AI-enabled operational improvements (for example, better in-stocks in pharmacy)
- Membership revenue rising sharply even as renewal rates dipped slightly [26]
This matters for the stock because it addresses a long-running bear argument that Costco’s model is “warehouse-first” and therefore structurally capped online. Recent data points are increasingly used to rebut that.
Macro backdrop: value retail tailwinds, but tariff and price pressures linger
A new Telsey Advisory Group outlook note (reported today) argued that retailers enter 2026 with improving sales prospects, but that tariff-driven price pressure could persist into mid‑2026, and that AI adoption is becoming a competitive differentiator. Costco was included among Telsey’s “top picks.” [27]
Separately, Axios and other outlets emphasized Costco’s lawsuit over tariffs—an issue that matters not just politically, but because it affects sourcing costs and category pricing decisions. [28]
Institutional and insider activity: filings show mixed moves, high institutional ownership
Today’s filings-driven alerts are not “core catalysts,” but they add color to positioning:
- A MarketBeat recap said Sage Capital Advisors reduced its Costco stake (selling shares) while other institutions initiated or adjusted positions, underscoring the mixed flows during the drawdown. [29]
- The same coverage highlighted insider selling over recent months, including transactions by senior executives, while noting institutional ownership around the high‑60% range in its compiled data. [30]
Insider selling is common and not automatically bearish, but in a valuation-sensitive tape it can amplify the narrative that the market wants “proof” of the next leg of upside.
What to watch next for Costco stock
From here, Costco investors are likely to focus on a short list of catalysts and data points:
- Monthly sales updates
Costco continues to publish monthly sales releases (including its recently posted November sales results and comps detail), which can quickly shift sentiment if traffic or ticket trends surprise. [31] - Next scheduled investor dates
Costco’s investor calendar indicates upcoming events including December Sales Results (Jan. 7, 2026) and the Annual Shareholders’ Meeting (Jan. 15, 2026). [32] - Membership renewal-rate stabilization
More commentary is likely as analysts track whether online cohorts “season” and renew more like warehouse signups over time—especially as Costco invests in targeted member communications. [33] - Tariffs and sourcing strategy
If tariff policy shifts, or if Costco’s legal challenge progresses, it could affect pricing decisions and margin narratives—particularly in imported discretionary categories. [34]
Bottom line: Costco remains a quality business—COST stock is now a valuation and expectations story
On the fundamentals, Costco just delivered what many companies would love to report: 8%+ sales growth, a 14% rise in membership fee revenue, solid comps, and a surge in digitally enabled sales. [35]
But the stock’s 2025 narrative has shifted into something more nuanced: even great businesses can go sideways (or down) when the market decides the multiple needs to compress—especially when membership metrics show even a modest wobble and when competition and macro uncertainty give investors alternatives. [36]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. investor.costco.com, 4. investor.costco.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.fool.com, 7. www.fool.com, 8. www.marketwatch.com, 9. www.marketwatch.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.benzinga.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. simplywall.st, 26. www.mediapost.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.axios.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. investor.costco.com, 32. investor.costco.com, 33. www.fool.com, 34. www.axios.com, 35. investor.costco.com, 36. www.marketwatch.com
