New York time check: It’s 2:07 PM ET on Friday, December 26, 2025.
U.S. stocks are trading in a post-Christmas, low-volume session with major indexes hovering near record levels but drifting modestly lower midday—an environment that can magnify small moves in individual names like Costco. [1]
Against that backdrop, Costco Wholesale Corporation (Nasdaq: COST) is little changed intraday as investors weigh a familiar Costco story: strong execution and resilient demand, but a stock that still trades at a premium valuation—making expectations harder to beat.
Costco stock price today (COST): where shares are trading now
As of the latest available trading update, Costco stock is around $872.21, up about $0.35 from the prior close (fractional move), with an intraday range roughly from $868.51 to $877.00.
Two important context notes for today’s tape:
- The U.S. stock market is open today (Dec. 26) for normal hours, after being closed on Christmas Day and closing early on Christmas Eve. [2]
- Holiday week liquidity is typically thinner, so investors often treat midday price action with extra caution—especially in mega-cap consumer names that can “float” with the index. [3]
Why Costco is in focus: the market is pricing “great company” vs. “great stock”
Costco’s fundamentals have remained durable, but the stock debate into year-end has centered on whether operational strength is already fully reflected in valuation.
A key reason Costco is structurally attractive is that it doesn’t rely primarily on merchandise markups for profitability. The company’s membership-fee economics are widely viewed as a core driver of earnings power and resilience through cycles. [4]
At the same time, several recent analyses have pointed out that even strong results can be met with a muted stock reaction when the market is already paying up for quality. [5]
The latest earnings picture: strong Q1 FY2026 results, with membership and digital doing the heavy lifting
Costco’s most recent quarterly update (its first quarter of fiscal 2026, ended Nov. 23, 2025) showed net sales up 8.2% to about $65.98 billion. [6]
Independent coverage of that report highlighted several investor-relevant points:
- Costco beat expectations as shoppers leaned into value ahead of the holidays, with comparable sales up 6.4%—above the consensus estimate cited in coverage. [7]
- The quarter also reinforced Costco’s ability to drive growth through membership fee revenue and digital momentum (a theme that’s become increasingly important for big-box retail narratives heading into 2026). [8]
From Costco’s filed quarterly report for the period, membership fee revenue rose 14% to $1.329 billion, and renewal rates remained high, though they dipped slightly: 92.2% in the U.S./Canada and 89.7% worldwide at quarter-end, with Costco noting the mix shift toward more online/digital sign-ups in its renewal-rate math. [9]
What Costco’s FY2025 results say about the “engine” behind COST stock
Stepping back to the full fiscal year, Costco reported FY2025 net sales of $269.9 billion and membership fees of $5.323 billion. [10]
Costco’s annual filing also details how sticky that revenue base tends to be:
- Membership fee revenue increased 10% in FY2025, and Costco reported renewal rates of 92.3% (U.S./Canada) and 89.8% (worldwide) at year-end—again noting that higher online sign-ups can modestly pressure measured renewal rates. [11]
These figures matter for investors because they help explain why COST often trades like a “quality compounder”: recurring-like membership revenue can cushion margins even when retail pricing gets competitive.
The valuation question: why “good news” hasn’t always lifted the stock
Several recent takes have underscored a key issue: Costco can deliver solid growth and still see the stock stall if investors want either:
- a bigger upside surprise, or
- a capital return catalyst (like a special dividend), or
- a cheaper entry multiple.
One widely read post-earnings review pointed to valuation and the absence of a special dividend as reasons the market’s reaction to strong results was subdued, even with Costco beating EPS expectations and remaining operationally strong. [12]
Wall Street forecasts for Costco stock: where analyst targets cluster now
Across mainstream consensus trackers, analysts remain broadly constructive on Costco, but targets imply a wide dispersion.
- MarketWatch’s analyst compilation shows an average target price around $1,041.89 and an “Overweight”-leaning average recommendation. [13]
- Other aggregators similarly show targets clustering in the low $1,000s with a broad range (bull and bear cases reflecting the valuation debate). [14]
Recent upgrades and downgrades investors are citing
Costco has seen notable rating divergence in December:
- A MarketWatch report highlighted Roth Capital analyst Bill Kirk taking a rare Sell stance and cutting his price target to $769, citing concerns such as weaker membership trends, rising competition, and demographic/structural headwinds—though the same piece notes many analysts remain positive. [15]
- Meanwhile, Costco has also appeared on “top upgrades/downgrades” roundups that included Northcoast upgrading Costco with a higher target (often cited at $1,100)—a reminder that the Street is split between “premium quality” and “premium price” narratives. [16]
The competitive backdrop: rivals are investing, and that’s part of the Costco conversation
Even for a dominant warehouse club, competition matters for how investors model long-run growth.
Recent reporting pointed to BJ’s Wholesale Club expanding in Texas, highlighting how peers continue pushing into Costco-heavy regions. [17]
This competitive angle also shows up in bearish analyst frameworks (e.g., concerns about Sam’s Club and BJ’s stepping up investments), even as bulls argue Costco’s scale and member value proposition remain difficult to match. [18]
Key dates and catalysts: what investors should watch before the next session
Because today is a holiday-week session, attention often shifts quickly from intraday noise to the next hard catalyst. Costco’s own IR calendar lists several near-term events, including:
- December Sales Results scheduled for January 7, 2026 [19]
- Shareholders’ Meeting on January 15, 2026 [20]
- January Sales Results scheduled for February 4, 2026 [21]
For earnings watchers, multiple calendars estimate Costco’s next earnings report around early March 2026 (estimated timing based on historical reporting cadence). [22]
What the broader market setup means for COST heading into year-end
Today’s macro tone matters because Costco often trades as a “quality defensive growth” name—meaning it can move with risk appetite, yields, and index flows.
Right now, investors are balancing:
- A Santa Claus rally window that market commentators watch closely for sentiment (even while emphasizing it’s not a standalone signal). [23]
- A market still near highs into year-end, where forecasts for 2026 vary—from bullish index targets to warnings about valuation risk. [24]
For Costco specifically, this kind of tape tends to reward clear, data-driven upside (sales trends, renewal rates, digital growth) and can punish anything that looks like deceleration, because the stock’s multiple leaves less room for “just okay.”
Is the exchange closed right now? No—but here’s what to know once it closes
Because it’s 2:07 PM ET, the NYSE/Nasdaq regular session is still open (9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET). [25]
If you’re reading this after the bell:
- Costco’s next “real” price discovery often comes from scheduled releases (monthly sales updates) rather than thin after-hours trading. [26]
- The next regular session after today’s close will be the next weekday session (markets are closed over the weekend).
- Keep an eye on holiday calendar effects: the exchanges were closed on Dec. 25 and had an early close on Dec. 24, which can distort short-term comparisons and volume signals. [27]
Bottom line for investors watching Costco stock (COST) into 2026
Costco is entering 2026 with:
- demonstrably strong sales momentum in its latest quarter, [28]
- high renewal rates and growing membership fee revenue, [29]
- and a market narrative split between “best-in-class execution” and “valuation already reflects it.” [30]
In a quiet post-holiday market, COST may not move dramatically on its own without new information—but investors are already looking ahead to the next set of monthly sales numbers and membership/traffic signals that can confirm (or challenge) the premium-quality thesis. [31]
Sources and experts cited (links)
- Costco Q1 FY2026 operating results (company release) [32]
- Costco FY2025 operating results (company release) [33]
- Costco Form 10‑K (SEC filing) [34]
- Costco quarterly filing details (SEC filing) [35]
- Reuters coverage of Costco’s Q1 beat [36]
- Barron’s post-earnings valuation/catalyst analysis [37]
- MarketWatch on Roth Capital analyst Bill Kirk’s Sell call [38]
- MarketWatch analyst estimates snapshot [39]
- Costco investor calendar (upcoming events) [40]
- AP on Dec. 26 market conditions [41]
- NYSE trading hours/holiday calendar [42]
- Nasdaq trading hours/holiday schedule [43]
References
1. apnews.com, 2. www.cbsnews.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. www.businessinsider.com, 5. www.barrons.com, 6. investor.costco.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.investopedia.com, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. investor.costco.com, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. www.marketwatch.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. finance.yahoo.com, 17. www.mysanantonio.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. investor.costco.com, 20. investor.costco.com, 21. investor.costco.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketwatch.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. investor.costco.com, 27. www.cbsnews.com, 28. investor.costco.com, 29. www.sec.gov, 30. www.barrons.com, 31. investor.costco.com, 32. investor.costco.com, 33. investor.costco.com, 34. www.sec.gov, 35. www.sec.gov, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.barrons.com, 38. www.marketwatch.com, 39. www.marketwatch.com, 40. investor.costco.com, 41. apnews.com, 42. www.nyse.com, 43. www.nasdaq.com
