Costco Stock (COST) Update Dec. 12, 2025: Earnings Beat, Digital Sales Surge, Tariff Lawsuit Risk

Updated today: Dec. 12, 2025

Costco Wholesale Corporation (Nasdaq: COST) ended this week with investors weighing a familiar mix: strong fundamentals and resilient member demand, versus a premium valuation and the kind of “great-but-not-great-enough” expectations that can mute the stock’s reaction even after an earnings beat.

COST closed at $884.47 on Friday, Dec. 12, leaving shares near the lower end of their 52-week range of roughly $871 to $1,078. ^[1] This week’s price action was choppy around Thursday’s earnings, but net-net the stock finished close to flat week-over-week based on recent closes. ^[2]

Below is what moved Costco stock this week, what analysts are forecasting now, and the key catalysts investors are watching in the week ahead.

Costco stock price today: where COST stands after earnings

Last close (Dec. 12): $884.47 ^[3]
52-week range: about $871–$1,078 ^[4]
Valuation snapshot: Yahoo Finance shows Costco at roughly ~47x trailing earnings and ~44x forward earnings (figures vary by data provider and estimate set). ^[5]

The headline from the tape: Costco is still being priced like a “high-quality compounder” — but when the bar is that high, the market often wants either a major upside surprise, a clear re-acceleration, or a shareholder-return catalyst to push the stock meaningfully higher.

The big Costco news this week: Q1 FY2026 results beat expectations

Costco’s main catalyst was its fiscal Q1 2026 report (12 weeks ended Nov. 23, 2025). ^[6]

Key earnings highlights (what the company reported)

Costco reported:

Net sales:$65.98B, up 8.2% year over year ^[7]
Total revenue:$67.31B (including membership fees) ^[8]
Membership fees:$1.329B (membership income growth highlighted at +14%) ^[9]
Net income:$2.001B ^[10]
Diluted EPS:$4.50 ^[11]

On the demand side, Costco posted:

Total company comparable sales:+6.4% ^[12]
Digitally-enabled comparable sales:+20.5% ^[13]
Comparable traffic:+3.1% and comparable ticket:+3.2% ^[14]

And on profitability/expense discipline, the company’s Q1 supplemental materials highlighted:

Gross margin:11.32% (shown as +4 bps vs. Q1 FY’25) ^[15]
SG&A:9.60% (shown as -1 bp vs. Q1 FY’25) ^[16]

Membership remains the engine — but renewal rates are being watched closely

If you want the “Costco stock thesis” in one line, it’s this: membership economics + scale + value perception.

This quarter’s membership metrics were still strong in absolute terms:

Paid memberships:81.4 million (+5.2%) ^[17]
Total cardholders:145.9 million (+5.1%) ^[18]
Executive memberships:39.7 million ^[19]
Executive members represented 74.3% of sales (per the supplemental slide) ^[20]

But the datapoint the market keeps circling is renewal rate:

Worldwide renewal rate:89.7% ^[21]
U.S./Canada renewal rate:92.2% ^[22]

Several market commentaries this week pointed to the renewal rate as one reason investors stayed cautious despite the earnings beat. ^[23]

Why Costco stock didn’t “rip” higher on a beat

Even with a clean top- and bottom-line beat, Costco stock’s immediate reaction was subdued, and several outlets described investors as effectively saying: “Yes, but what else?” ^[24]

Here are the biggest reasons being cited:

1) The valuation bar is still high

Multiple reports this week pegged Costco’s forward multiple in the low-to-mid 40x range, which is still well above the broader market’s typical multiple. ^[25]

2) Special dividend expectations fizzled (for now)

Barron’s reported that one factor behind disappointment was the absence of a new special dividend announcement, noting Costco’s history of occasional special dividends (and describing investor expectations heading into this report). ^[26]

A separate pre-earnings piece also argued a special dividend announcement on Dec. 11 looked unlikely. ^[27]

3) Renewals and traffic are becoming “the debate,” not the sales beat

Investors can admire +6.4% comps and +3.1% traffic while still worrying about whether traffic stays durable as comparisons get tougher and as Costco’s model matures in North America. ^[28]

Digital momentum is real — and it’s changing what “Costco growth” looks like

Costco’s digital performance was one of the most clearly bullish datapoints in the earnings package:

Digitally-enabled comparable sales:+20.5% ^[29]
E-commerce site traffic:+24% and e-commerce average order value:+13% (per supplemental slide) ^[30]

The company’s Q1 supplemental materials also called out top digital categories including pharmacy, gold/jewelry, tires, small electrics, apparel, and majors. ^[31]

From a stock perspective, the strategic importance is straightforward: if Costco can keep scaling digital without eroding its core warehouse economics, it gives the market a new reason to pay up for the business.

Another headline investors are pricing in: Costco’s tariff lawsuit

One of the more unusual (and potentially financially meaningful) threads around Costco stock right now is its role in litigation challenging tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Recent reporting notes that Costco filed suit challenging tariffs imposed under IEEPA, seeking refunds, and joining a broader legal fight over executive-branch tariff authority. ^[32]

The issue matters for Costco because it is a high-volume importer across multiple categories; any sustained tariff burden can pressure costs, sourcing complexity, and pricing strategy — while refunds (if realized) could be a financial tailwind.

There’s also a near-term procedural angle: reporting highlighted that some plaintiffs sought urgent relief tied to Customs liquidation timelines, with Dec. 15 cited in connection with when entries could begin liquidating in certain contexts. ^[33]

Important nuance: litigation outcomes and timing are inherently uncertain. For investors, the practical takeaway is that tariff policy risk has become a more explicit “headline factor” around Costco than it used to be.

Costco’s operational playbook: tech, checkout speed, and cost discipline

Another under-the-radar but potentially valuation-relevant theme this week was management commentary on productivity tools.

One report highlighted that Costco locations adopting pre-scan technology have seen checkout speed improvements of up to 20%, and described additional technology initiatives (including AI use cases around pharmacy pricing comparisons and inventory workflows). ^[34]

Costco’s Q1 supplemental deck also emphasized digital enhancements such as personalized recommendations, improved product display pages to raise conversion, and continued search improvements. ^[35]

For COST investors, these details matter because they speak directly to the question the market keeps asking at ~40+ forward earnings: Can Costco keep expanding while protecting operating leverage and member experience?

Other Costco headlines from the past few days

November sales report: steady holiday runway

Earlier in the month, Costco reported November net sales of $23.64B (+8.1%) for the four weeks ended Nov. 30, with total company comps +6.9% for that four-week period and digitally-enabled comps also positive. ^[36]

Board update: Gina Raimondo nomination

Costco also announced the nomination of Gina Raimondo to its board. ^[37]

Product recalls: low financial impact, but headline risk

Costco maintains an active recalls/notice page for certain products and locations. These items are typically not financially material for a company of Costco’s scale, but they can generate short-term consumer headlines. ^[38]

Wall Street forecasts: where analysts see COST going from here

Analyst opinions shifted quickly after earnings — and not always in the same direction. Several firms trimmed price targets while maintaining generally constructive long-term views (a common pattern when a stock is expensive: analysts like the company, but debate the multiple).

Recent analyst notes and target changes (reported in the last 1–2 days)

Goldman Sachs: price target lowered to $1,171 from $1,218; Buy maintained (per report). ^[39]
Truist: price target cut to $926 from $1,033; Hold maintained. ^[40]
HSBC: price target reduced to $1,045 from $1,060; Hold maintained. ^[41]
UBS: reiterated Buy, with commentary that Costco’s multiple has compressed versus earlier in the year and that concerns are focused on traffic/renewals. ^[42]

Consensus targets: still generally above the current price, but not unanimously bullish

Depending on the dataset, reported consensus targets cluster around the low-to-mid $1,000s, implying mid-teens to low-20s percentage upside from the high-$800s share price — but with wide dispersion.

MarketBeat cited an average price target around $1,005 and a mix of Buy/Hold ratings. ^[43]
Another aggregation put the average forecast around $1,071 with a wide low-to-high range (again: methodology varies by aggregator). ^[44]

What that means for the week ahead: after a major print, estimate revisions and follow-on analyst notes can continue to move the stock — especially when the market is debating “premium multiple vs. premium execution.”

Week ahead outlook for Costco stock: key catalysts to watch (Dec. 15–19)

Costco has already delivered the week’s biggest company-specific catalyst (earnings). So next week’s movement is likely to be driven by: (1) post-earnings repositioning, (2) macro data that shapes consumer-spending sentiment, and (3) any incremental news on tariffs, delivery economics, or membership behavior.

1) U.S. retail sales data (macro catalyst)

U.S. retail sales are a closely watched barometer for consumer demand — and for how the market values retail/consumer names. One widely used calendar shows the next U.S. retail sales release on Dec. 16, 2025. ^[45]

A hotter or weaker-than-expected print can move sentiment across the retail complex, including Costco.

2) Costco’s membership narrative: renewals + traffic

Next week, the market will likely keep focusing on:

whether traffic growth (+3.1%) is sustainable, ^[46]
and whether renewal rates (89.7% worldwide) stabilize as Costco continues to grow digitally. ^[47]

This is less about “new numbers” and more about how investors interpret the earnings details as the news cycle cools.

3) Tariff litigation headlines and policy chatter

Because tariffs were explicitly discussed in recent coverage of Costco and the broader legal/policy fight, any new developments could create incremental volatility — even if the ultimate financial impact is distant. ^[48]

4) Operational updates: store hours, productivity, and delivery partnerships

There’s an emerging thread around store-hour tweaks and operational efficiency. Broader reporting earlier this year described expanded/earlier access for Executive members at some locations. ^[49]

And this week’s reporting on pre-scan technology and AI use cases keeps attention on whether Costco can improve throughput and service while controlling costs. ^[50]

The bull case vs. bear case for COST right now

A realistic bull case

Mid-single-digit comps with positive traffic and ticket continue. ^[51]
Membership income remains durable and grows at a healthy clip. ^[52]
Digital remains a structural growth lever (20%+ digitally-enabled comps). ^[53]
Costco keeps executing expansion plans (supplemental materials outline warehouse growth expectations into FY’26). ^[54]

A realistic bear case

The premium multiple proves “sticky” on the downside if traffic or renewal rates soften. ^[55]
Tariff outcomes or other cost pressures create margin headwinds (even modest margin moves matter when valuation is high). ^[56]
Investor expectations for catalysts (like a special dividend) keep getting deferred. ^[57]

Bottom line: Costco’s business looks strong — Costco stock is about the multiple

Costco’s latest quarter reinforced why the company is widely viewed as one of the highest-quality retailers in the market: solid sales growth, strong membership economics, and standout digital momentum. ^[58]

But COST’s stock performance near its 52-week low is also a reminder that, at a premium valuation, execution needs to be not just strong — but strong enough to change the narrative. ^[59]

If you want the key question for next week, it’s this: Does the market start re-rating Costco on digital + membership durability, or does it keep treating COST as “great business, fully priced”?

References

Costco Stock (COST) Update Dec. 12, 2025: Earnings Beat, Digital Sales Surge, Tariff Lawsuit Risk — What to Watch Next Week