NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 10:32 a.m. ET — Market closed
Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) enters the final trading days of 2025 with U.S. equity markets shut for the weekend—and investors using the downtime to reassess a stock that has pulled back from its 2025 highs even as the retailer continues to post solid sales growth and resilient membership economics.
COST last finished the regular session on Friday at $873.35, and was little changed in late extended trading. [1]
A quiet year-end tape sets the backdrop for Monday
Friday’s post-Christmas session was characterized by thin volume and limited catalysts, with major U.S. indexes ending nearly flat and investors watching for whether the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” period can extend into early January. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, told Reuters that after a strong five-day run, markets were “catching our breath,” while still seeing time left in the seasonal window for upside bias. [2]
That broader backdrop matters for Costco shareholders because COST has increasingly traded like a “quality compounder” whose valuation is sensitive to shifting risk appetite—especially during low-liquidity, headline-driven sessions.
Costco stock price check: where COST stands going into the next session
Here are the key reference points investors are using heading into Monday’s open:
- Last regular-session price: $873.35
- After-hours indication (Friday): roughly $873 (fractionally lower)
- Valuation: roughly 46–47x trailing earnings (depending on data source)
- 52-week range: approximately $844 to $1,078
- Trend gauges: COST remains below commonly watched moving averages cited in market data summaries (a sign that the multi-month pullback is still a factor for short-term traders). [3]
The last 24–48 hours: what’s new on Costco stock
While Costco itself hasn’t released a headline corporate update over the weekend, several widely-circulated market notes and filings have shaped the current conversation around COST.
1) “Great business, pricey stock” remains the core debate
A newly published Nasdaq.com commentary by Neil Patel (The Motley Fool) argues Costco’s membership model continues to be the central profit engine, citing low merchandise markups and recurring fee income—while also emphasizing that even after the pullback, COST still trades at a premium valuation by broad-market standards. [4]
The piece also frames a key investor reality: Costco may rarely look “cheap” on conventional multiples because the market tends to pay up for the company’s stability and scale—an argument that continues to divide value-oriented investors from quality-growth buyers. [5]
2) A fresh valuation case built around cash flow
In a weekend Barchart analysis, Mark R. Hake, CFA highlights Costco’s free-cash-flow strength and improving cash-flow margins, arguing the stock’s pullback could be creating a more attractive entry point. The analysis references a recent trough around the low-to-mid $800s during the week and outlines a valuation framework that implies meaningful upside if cash-flow assumptions persist. [6]
3) Wells Fargo’s target cut keeps “valuation” front and center
A separate market note circulated late Friday highlighted Wells Fargo analyst Edward Kelly trimming his price target to $900 from $1,000 while maintaining an Equal Weight stance, pointing to a “mixed setup” for retail into 2026 but reiterating that Costco’s membership model remains a differentiator. [7]
4) Northcoast turns more bullish on global runway
Another widely shared note summarized Northcoast Research upgrading Costco to Buy with a $1,100 target. Analyst Chuck Cerankosky pointed to international expansion opportunities and described Costco’s overseas growth as “consistently successful,” while also discussing balance-sheet flexibility (including the possibility of another special dividend). [8]
5) New institutional-position headlines add a sentiment layer
A cluster of year-end SEC filing coverage also hit the wires. MarketBeat highlighted fresh or increased institutional positions (including Apollon Wealth Management and Regent Peak Wealth Advisors) and reiterated that institutional ownership remains a major feature of COST’s shareholder base. These aren’t fundamental catalysts on their own, but they contribute to the narrative that long-only investors continue to treat dips as opportunities—while insider selling over recent months remains worth monitoring as context. [9]
Fundamentals: the latest official Costco results still show steady momentum
The most recent company-reported operating update (fiscal Q1 2026, ended Nov. 23, 2025) underscores why many long-term investors remain constructive even amid valuation debate:
- Net sales:$65.98 billion, up 8.2% year over year
- Total revenue:$67.307 billion (including membership fees)
- Membership fees:$1.329 billion (reported as a line item)
- Comparable sales:+6.4% companywide (reported and adjusted)
- Digitally-enabled comparable sales:+20.5%
- Net income:$2.001 billion ($4.50 diluted EPS)
- Warehouse footprint:923 warehouses globally (company-reported count) [10]
Those figures continue to reinforce Costco’s core investment case: high-frequency shopping behavior supported by fee income and a value proposition that tends to hold up even when consumers become more selective.
Forecasts and analyst outlook: what Wall Street expects for COST
Consensus views vary by provider (because of different analyst universes and methodologies), but two commonly referenced snapshots show a broadly constructive stance—paired with a wide dispersion of targets:
- StockAnalysis (21 analysts): consensus rating “Buy” and an average price target around $1,054 (roughly ~21% upside from the last close), with targets ranging from about $769 to $1,225. [11]
- MarketBeat (33 analysts): consensus rating “Moderate Buy” and an average target around $992, with the high end near $1,200 (MarketBeat also flags an outlier low target in its dataset). [12]
What’s notable right now isn’t just the upside implied by averages—it’s the spread. That dispersion reflects a genuine market disagreement about whether Costco’s premium multiple is justified (or vulnerable) as 2026 approaches.
What investors should know before the next trading session
Because the market is closed today, the practical question becomes: what could matter most when trading resumes Monday?
Key market drivers to watch
Reuters’ “week ahead” outlook highlights several forces that can move high-multiple large caps into year-end:
- Fed-related catalysts: Minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting are expected in the holiday-shortened week ahead, and investors remain highly focused on the path of rate cuts in 2026. [13]
- Year-end positioning: Reuters also notes that portfolio adjustments and light volumes can exaggerate price swings—important for a widely held mega-cap like Costco. [14]
- Index milestones and rotation: With the S&P 500 hovering near major psychological levels, strategists such as Paul Nolte (Murphy & Sylvest) have described bullish momentum as supportive absent an external shock, while the market also watches rotation away from crowded areas and into more moderately valued segments. [15]
Costco-specific items to keep on the radar
For Costco stock specifically, investors will likely focus on:
- Valuation sensitivity: Commentary this weekend again emphasized that COST’s premium multiple can compress quickly if sentiment shifts—even when fundamentals remain intact. [16]
- Membership durability: Analysts continue to cite renewal-rate strength and the recurring nature of fee income as central to the bull case. [17]
- International expansion and capital returns: The more bullish side of the Street is leaning into global runway and balance-sheet flexibility (including the potential for special dividends). [18]
- Technical levels and recent lows: Multiple market notes referenced a recent late-December dip into the $850 area, making that zone a commonly watched support reference into Monday. [19]
Bottom line for Costco stock (COST) heading into Monday
Costco closes the weekend with a familiar setup: strong operating trends and a loyal membership base, contrasted with a valuation that keeps even optimistic analysts debating how much upside is left in the near term.
With U.S. markets reopening Monday for the final sessions of 2025—and macro catalysts like Fed minutes and year-end portfolio moves looming—COST investors will likely be watching whether the stock can stabilize above late-December support while the broader market navigates thin liquidity and an unusually milestone-heavy tape. [20]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.barchart.com, 7. finviz.com, 8. www.insidermonkey.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. investor.costco.com, 11. stockanalysis.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. finviz.com, 18. www.insidermonkey.com, 19. www.barchart.com, 20. www.reuters.com
