Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) heads into Thursday’s U.S. session sitting near its 2025 lows, just hours before it reports fiscal Q1 2026 earnings after the closing bell on December 11, 2025. The stock is under pressure despite solid sales growth, a resilient membership base and fresh boardroom news, while investors also weigh a high‑stakes tariff lawsuit and a new Federal Reserve rate cut.
Here’s what happened to COST after the bell on December 10 – and what traders and long‑term investors should know before the market opens on December 11.
Where Costco Stock Stands After Wednesday’s Close
Price action
According to daily price data, Costco shares fell about 1.6% on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, closing around $874.41 after trading between $871.09 (the intraday low) and roughly $889.58 (the intraday high). [1]
That low in the $871–872 range marks a fresh 52‑week low, a level also flagged by MarketBeat and StockInvest’s technical feeds. [2]
After the bell, electronic trading kept COST hovering near that closing level, with most data providers showing the stock trading in the mid‑$870s, broadly unchanged from the official close. [3]
From market darling to laggard (for now)
Over the last few months:
- COST has erased its 2025 gains, with multiple sources putting the recent three‑month drawdown near 10% and the year‑to‑date performance flat to slightly negative. [4]
- A six‑month lookback from Nasdaq/Motley Fool shows a hypothetical $10,000 Costco investment (with dividends reinvested) turning into about $8,769 by December 9, a roughly –12.3% total return, even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq‑100 moved higher over the same period. [5]
Zoom out, though, and Costco is still a long‑term crusher: over three‑ and five‑year horizons it has comfortably beaten both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100 on a total‑return basis. [6]
So into the December 11 open, the setup is: excellent long‑term record, strong business, but a stock that’s correcting hard from a previously “nosebleed” valuation.
Fundamentals Still Solid: November Sales and Q1 Setup
The selling pressure is not about collapse in Costco’s operations. If anything, the latest monthly and quarterly sales data show a retailer that’s still very much in growth mode.
November and Q1 sales
In a December 3 update, Costco reported: [7]
- November 2025 net sales:
- $23.64 billion, up 8.1% year‑over‑year
- First 12 weeks of fiscal Q1 2026 (through November 23):
- Net sales $65.98 billion, up 8.2% vs. the prior year
- First 13 weeks (retail fiscal metric):
- Net sales $71.97 billion, also up about 8.2%
- Comparable sales (same‑store basis):
- Total company comps up 6.9% for November
- Q1 comps up 6.4% for the quarter
- U.S. comps around 6%, Canada mid‑6%, and other international high‑single‑digits
Digital channels were the standout: Costco and several third‑party write‑ups highlighted mid‑teens growth in “digitally enabled” or e‑commerce sales, showing that the historically brick‑and‑concrete warehouse chain is steadily strengthening its online muscle. [8]
But growth is decelerating at the margin
A MarketWatch analysis pointed out that U.S. comp growth has cooled modestly – mid‑5% in November versus higher levels earlier in the year – and that two‑year “stacked” growth has eased as well. That deceleration, even from still‑healthy levels, helped knock COST into negative territory for 2025. [9]
Wall Street loves growth; it loves accelerating growth; it gets twitchy when growth slows even a bit. Costco is currently living in that twitchy zone.
Earnings Catalyst: What Wall Street Expects on December 11
Costco will report fiscal Q1 2026 results after the market closes on Thursday, December 11, 2025, with the conference call scheduled for later that afternoon. [10]
Across several earnings previews, the Street is clustering around:
- Revenue: roughly $67.0–67.3 billion, about 8% year‑over‑year growth [11]
- Earnings per share (EPS): around $4.24–4.28, implying mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit EPS growth vs. last year’s Q1 [12]
TipRanks notes that options traders are pricing in roughly a 4% move (about $32 per share) in either direction on the earnings reaction, compared with a historical average closer to 2.5%. [13]
In other words, expect volatility around the report: the market is bracing for a bigger‑than‑usual reaction.
Key items analysts say they’ll watch: [14]
- Comparable sales, especially in the U.S.
- Membership metrics – renewal rates, paid member count, and Executive membership mix
- E‑commerce and “digitally enabled” sales growth
- Margins, given tariff and cost headwinds
- Any hints on special dividends, buybacks or pricing strategy
Legal Overhang: Tariff Lawsuit and a Pending Supreme Court Decision
One of the more unusual storylines in the Costco investment case right now is legal rather than retail.
Costco is among dozens of import‑heavy companies that have filed lawsuits seeking refunds of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) during the prior administration. [15]
Here’s why that matters:
- The U.S. Supreme Court is weighing the legality of those IEEPA tariffs, with a decision possible in the near term. Analysts estimate tens of billions of dollars in potential refunds may be at stake across corporate America. [16]
- A Reuters interview with the current U.S. trade chief suggested that, even if the Court rules against the tariffs, the government believes it can “replicate” roughly $200 billion of tariff revenue using other legal mechanisms – so even a victory doesn’t guarantee tariff relief for importers in the long run. [17]
For Costco specifically, the potential outcomes range from:
- Positive surprise: Significant tariff refunds could eventually bolster Costco’s already strong cash position and might be directed to special dividends, capex, or membership investments.
- Status quo or mild negative: The Court decision is narrower than hoped, refunds are limited, or new tariffs fill the gap – which would keep pressure on gross margins and supply chains.
Most preview notes treat this as a medium‑term optionality story rather than Thursday‑morning news. But headlines out of the Supreme Court (or Treasury/Customs on refund mechanics) could easily influence sentiment over the coming weeks. [18]
Boardroom News: Gina Raimondo Nomination
On December 4, Costco announced the nomination of former U.S. Commerce Secretary and Rhode Island governor Gina Raimondo to its board of directors. [19]
Why investors care:
- Raimondo brings deep experience in trade, industrial policy and technology regulation, areas directly relevant to Costco’s tariff exposure, global sourcing and digital expansion.
- Her presence alongside other high‑profile directors underscores Costco’s emphasis on policy and regulatory expertise at the board level.
This is not a near‑term earnings catalyst, but it strengthens the strategic and governance narrative around the company – something long‑term institutional investors watch closely.
What Analysts and Models Are Saying About COST
Despite the price slide, Wall Street is far from abandoning Costco.
Street rating and price targets
MarketBeat data show Costco with a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with roughly 19 Buy ratings and 13 Holds, and an average 12‑month price target around $1,020–1,030, implying mid‑teens upside from the current price. [20]
TipRanks, aggregating a slightly different analyst set, reports 16 Buys and 8 Holds over the last three months, with an average target near $1,092, or roughly 25% upside from the mid‑$870s. [21]
However:
- The stock is still trading at a price‑to‑earnings multiple around the high‑40s to low‑50s, depending on which trailing or forward metric you use – rich for a mature retailer. [22]
- Some research pieces (including Seeking Alpha commentary) explicitly downgrade Costco on valuation grounds, arguing that even a high‑quality business can be a poor short‑term investment if you pay too much for it. [23]
In short: fundamental sentiment is broadly positive; valuation sentiment is conflicted.
Quant and technical forecasts
Algorithmic and technical‑analysis sites are almost comically more pessimistic than the average human analyst right now.
- StockInvest.us currently labels COST a “Strong Sell candidate”, citing a falling trend, multiple sell signals from moving averages and a projected three‑month range that leans toward further downside, with a high probability of prices staying below the mid‑$870s unless the trend breaks. [24]
- CoinCodex, which blends technical indicators into a quantitative forecast, lists: [25]
- Short‑term (next 5 days): expects a modest rebound toward about $888–$890, a gain of around 1–2% from current prices.
- By early January 2026: baseline forecast around $826.76, about –7% below today’s price.
- One‑year forecast: around $768, implying double‑digit downside.
- 2030 forecast: roughly $1,200, which would be ~36% above current levels, but still below many long‑run fundamental scenarios.
Both services stress that these are model outputs, not guarantees, and they lean heavily on recent price action and technical data, not detailed views on Costco’s business.
Long‑term fundamental forecasts
On the more fundamental side, a recent 24/7 Wall St. model projects Costco’s earnings and valuation out to 2030, using assumed EPS growth and gradually normalizing P/E multiples. Their base case envisions: [26]
- 2025 “fair value”: around $1,013
- 2030 price target: roughly $1,600, about 79% above the current share price, assuming EPS near $27.70 and a 37x P/E
That’s not a prediction in the “crystal ball” sense, but it does reflect a common institutional thesis: if Costco keeps compounding its membership, sales and cash flows, a high valuation multiple might remain justified for years.
Macro Backdrop: Fed Cut and Risk Sentiment
Just to spice things up, Costco’s earnings week coincides with a fresh Federal Reserve rate cut.
On December 10, 2025, the Fed: [27]
- Cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%, its third cut of 2025
- Signaled a likely pause in further cuts for now, with policymakers divided about the path in 2026
Lower rates, all else equal, tend to support high‑quality, long‑duration “compounder” stocks like Costco, because future cash flows are discounted at a lower rate. On the flip side, if the market interprets the Fed’s language as “hawkish” or worries that growth is slowing, it may keep pulling money toward defensive cash and bonds rather than richly valued equities.
So the macro context is weirdly two‑sided: supportive for Costco’s long‑term story, but not necessarily a short‑term floor for the stock.
Five Things to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 11, 2025
Here’s a practical checklist for Thursday morning.
1. Pre‑market trading and key price levels
Watch where COST trades in pre‑market:
- Support zone: The new 52‑week low around $871 is now the first obvious support. A decisive break below that could embolden technically minded sellers. [28]
- Near‑term resistance: Quant and technical models point to the high‑$880s to low‑$890s as a short‑term target/resistance zone. [29]
If COST opens significantly below the modelled “fair opening” in the high‑$870s (StockInvest pegs a fair open near $878), that would signal continued risk‑off sentiment. [30]
2. Any new headlines on tariffs or Costco’s lawsuit
Even small headlines about:
- The Supreme Court’s timeline on the IEEPA case
- Interim rulings on tariff refunds
- Or commentary from administration officials on tariff policy “Plan B”
could nudge Costco and other big importers before earnings. The amounts at stake are large enough that markets will at least try to price them. [31]
3. Sector and index tone after the Fed decision
Monitor:
- Retail and consumer‑staples ETFs vs. the broader S&P 500
- Moves in peers like Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale and Target, which often trade as a loose group [32]
If risk appetite is strong and “quality defensive growth” stocks catch a bid after the Fed, COST might find a bid too. If the market tilts instead toward “cheap cyclicals” or cash‑heavy trades, Costco could remain under pressure even with no new company‑specific bad news.
4. Expectations around a special dividend or capital return
Costco has a history of occasional massive special dividends, which naturally encourages speculation whenever it sits on a big cash hoard.
A recent 24/7 Wall St. analysis looked at whether Costco might announce another special dividend with this Q1 report and came to a cautious conclusion: [33]
- Cash and balance sheet strength could support a special payout.
- But softer recent share performance and moderating comps reduce the odds of an immediate announcement.
Heading into Thursday, investors should not assume a special dividend will be unveiled, though it remains a wild card if earnings materially beat expectations.
5. How different types of investors might react
Reactions to Thursday’s open – and to the after‑hours earnings report – will likely diverge by style:
- Short‑term traders and quants
- Watching technical levels, options flows and the 4% implied move band closely. [34]
- Valuation‑sensitive investors
- Some see Costco as still “too expensive” relative to slower growth; others see a high‑quality compounder trading at one of its better entry points in years. [35]
- Long‑only dividend and quality funds
- Focused on membership growth, renewal rates, pricing power and any hints about the next multi‑year capital‑return playbook, including ordinary dividend growth and potential future specials. [36]
Expect the opening tape on December 11 to be choppy as these groups all try to update their Costco story at once.
What It Means for Investors – Without the Hype
Putting all of this together:
- Business: Still strong. High‑single‑digit sales growth, resilient comps, surging digital and a sticky membership model. [37]
- Stock price: Sitting near a new 52‑week low after a meaningful multi‑month pullback. [38]
- Valuation: Still high by traditional metrics, but far below peak multiples; whether that’s “cheap enough” is the core debate. [39]
- Catalyst risk: Q1 earnings and guidance, plus tariff litigation and the new Fed path, make the near‑term outlook unusually event‑heavy. [40]
For short‑term traders, Costco into December 11 is a classic “volatility event” name: important support nearby, high options‑implied move, clear macro overlay.
For long‑term investors, the more interesting question is philosophical: How much are you willing to pay for a business that keeps winning memberships, comp sales and cash‑flow share, even when the stock spends long stretches disappointing momentum‑hunters?
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. coincodex.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. investor.costco.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.marketwatch.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.barrons.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.barrons.com, 19. investor.costco.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. seekingalpha.com, 24. stockinvest.us, 25. coincodex.com, 26. 247wallst.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. coincodex.com, 30. stockinvest.us, 31. www.barrons.com, 32. www.marketwatch.com, 33. 247wallst.com, 34. www.tipranks.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. investor.costco.com, 38. stockanalysis.com, 39. www.marketbeat.com, 40. www.tipranks.com
