Updated: December 11, 2025, ~6:00 a.m. ET
Key points
- Costco (NASDAQ: COST) closed Wednesday at $874.41, down 1.58%, near the bottom of its 52‑week range after a multi‑day slide. [1]
- Early premarket indications around 6 a.m. ET show light trading, with quotes near $876, roughly +0.2% vs. Wednesday’s close, suggesting a flat-to-slightly-firmer open. [2]
- Costco reports fiscal Q1 2026 earnings after the bell today, with Wall Street expecting EPS of about $4.26–$4.27 on roughly $67.2 billion in revenue. [3]
- Options traders are braced for a ~4% post‑earnings move, notably larger than Costco’s historical average reaction of ~2.5%. [4]
- November sales data show 8.1% net sales growth and 6.9% comparable‑sales growth, but multi‑year trends in U.S. comps have cooled, which has weighed on the stock. [5]
- Analysts broadly rate Costco a “Buy”/“Moderate Buy”, with average 12‑month targets around $1,020–$1,090, implying 20–25% upside from current levels. [6]
- A special dividend today is viewed as unlikely despite Costco’s strong balance sheet and history of sizable one‑off payouts. [7]
Note: This article is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Costco stock premarket on December 11, 2025
Costco heads into earnings day on the back foot. Shares closed Wednesday, Dec. 10 at $874.41, down 1.58% on the session and extending a recent downtrend. [8]
Over the past year, the stock has fallen roughly 12%, even as Costco’s underlying business continues to grow. [9] Several recent analyses point out that 2025 has been a rare “off year” for Costco shares, which are slightly negative year‑to‑date while the S&P 500 has gained about 17%, a sharp reversal from years in which Costco regularly outpaced the index. [10]
In early premarket trading today, real‑time feeds from futures and equity platforms show thin volume and indicative quotes near $876, about 0.2% above Wednesday’s close, suggesting a relatively calm open despite the looming earnings catalyst. [11]
From a technical and valuation standpoint:
- 52‑week range: roughly $871 to $1,078. [12]
- Market cap: about $388–$394 billion. [13]
- Trailing P/E: around 48x earnings, with a P/E/G ratio near 6.0, signalling a premium multiple even after the pullback. [14]
- Dividend: an annualized $5.20 per share, for a yield of about 0.6% at current prices. [15]
In other words, Costco is entering earnings priced like a high‑quality growth compounder, not a beaten‑down value stock, even as the share price sits near 2025 lows.
What Wall Street expects from Costco’s Q1 2026 earnings
Costco will report fiscal first‑quarter 2026 results (the 12 weeks ended November 23, 2025) after the market close this afternoon. [16]
Consensus estimates
Across several data providers, expectations are tightly clustered:
- Earnings per share (EPS):
- Around $4.26–$4.27. [17]
- Revenue:
- Roughly $67.1–$67.3 billion, implying about 8% growth year‑on‑year, consistent with Costco’s reported Q1 net sales growth of 8.2%. [18]
Recent Zacks research notes that Costco has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last two quarters, with an average positive surprise just under 1%. [19] Last quarter, Costco delivered EPS of $5.87 versus a consensus of $5.81, alongside revenue of $86.16 billion, also slightly above expectations. [20]
Options market setup
Options data highlighted by TipRanks shows traders pricing in about a 4% move in either direction following tonight’s report—roughly $32 per share at current prices. That compares with a historical average earnings‑day move of ~2.5% for Costco, suggesting elevated event risk this time around. [21]
Trefis analysis of past earnings days finds that Costco has posted positive one‑day returns after earnings about 63% of the time over the last five years (12 up vs. 7 down sessions), though that success rate drops modestly when focusing only on the last three years. [22]
November sales: strong top line, slower multi‑year trends
Costco already gave investors a sneak preview of the quarter with its November 2025 sales release, which covers most of Q1.
Key figures from the company’s disclosure and subsequent coverage: [23]
- Net sales for November (4 weeks ended Nov. 30):
- $23.64 billion, up 8.1% year‑over‑year.
- Net sales for the 12‑week Q1 period:
- $65.98 billion, up 8.2% vs. the prior year.
- Net sales for the first 13 weeks (including an extra week in some regions):
- $71.97 billion, also +8.2% YoY.
- Comparable sales (ex‑gas and FX):
- Total company: +6.9% for November.
- U.S.: +6.0%
- Canada: +6.9%
- Other international: +11.4%
- Digital/“digitally enabled” sales:
- Mid‑teens growth, with one report citing ~16% year‑over‑year increases in e‑commerce channels.
On the surface, these are healthy, high‑single‑digit growth numbers for a mature retailer. But investors have honed in on a subtle slowdown in multi‑year trends:
- MarketWatch notes that U.S. comparable sales growth decelerated, with the two‑year compounded U.S. growth rate dropping from about 12.5% in October to roughly 10.1% in November, even as comps remained positive. [24]
That deceleration, combined with a rich valuation, has contributed to pressure on the share price, even though the underlying business is still expanding steadily.
Special dividend buzz: history says “not impossible,” fundamentals say “unlikely”
Whenever Costco reports a major earnings update, investors start whispering about one of Wall Street’s favorite events: a Costco special dividend.
A detailed 24/7 Wall St. piece reviews Costco’s special‑dividend track record and concludes that a new special payout on Dec. 11 is possible but unlikely: [25]
- Costco has paid large special dividends roughly every three years:
- $15 per share in December 2023
- $10 in 2020
- $7 in 2017
- $5–7 in earlier cycles
- These special distributions have typically come during periods of above‑trend fundamentals and strong share‑price momentum.
- In contrast, 2025 is a rare “soft” year for Costco’s stock, which is down a bit year‑to‑date while the broader market has surged. [26]
The same analysis points out that:
- November comps slowed to around mid‑single‑digit growth.
- Costco is still trading at a lofty forward P/E near 40, even after the pullback. [27]
With that backdrop, the article’s author argues that management is more likely to conserve its war chest—despite a sizable cash pile and low debt levels—unless Q1 results are decisively ahead of expectations.
The takeaway:
Don’t count on a special dividend tonight. If it happens, it would be a positive surprise, not a base‑case scenario.
Strategic backdrop: tariffs, membership strength and e‑commerce
Tariff lawsuit and political backdrop
Beyond earnings, Costco is drawing attention for a rare legal challenge to U.S. trade policy.
A Washington Post report describes how Costco has become the only major U.S. retailer to sue the Trump administration over tariffs, seeking refunds on levies paid on imported goods. [28]
Key points from that coverage:
- Costco filed its case in the Court of International Trade, aiming to preserve its ability to recoup tariffs if the Supreme Court ultimately rules against broad tariff powers under a 1977 emergency law. [29]
- Roughly one‑third of Costco’s sales involve imported goods, so potential refunds would meaningfully benefit margins if the company prevails. [30]
- The move underscores Costco’s unusual confidence in its brand and customer loyalty; the article notes more than 145 million members globally, with a U.S. renewal rate above 92%. [31]
For investors, the tariff case is a non‑core but potentially material upside catalyst over the medium term, adding another layer to the Costco investment story.
Membership engine still humming
Membership remains Costco’s superpower:
- 24/7 Wall St. highlights that global renewal rates hover around 90%, a figure supported by Costco’s own disclosures and long‑term data. [32]
- Store count has expanded steadily, with management adding dozens of new locations over the last few years and planning about 35 new warehouses for fiscal 2026, including relocations. [33]
Last year’s membership fee hike—about $5 more for standard members and $10 more for Executive members—drove a double‑digit increase in membership fee revenue, but also created tougher year‑over‑year comparisons for Q1 2026. [34]
So far, there is no sign of widespread churn. Analysts will still be listening closely on tonight’s call for:
- Renewal trends by tier
- Growth in Executive memberships
- Any evidence that higher fees are impacting sign‑ups, particularly in more price‑sensitive regions
E‑commerce: good, but not Walmart‑level hypergrowth
Costco’s digital strategy remains supportive but not dominant in the story.
A recent comparison by 24/7 Wall St. notes that: [35]
- Costco’s e‑commerce grew about 13.6% in its latest quarter, while
- Walmart’s online business jumped 27%, supported by heavy investment in logistics and same‑day fulfillment.
Despite slower digital growth, Costco:
- Delivers double‑digit net income growth (around 10.9%),
- Maintains operating margins around 3.9%, and
- Continues to lean on its high‑volume, membership‑driven warehouse model rather than chasing every online trend. [36]
This has led some commentators to position Costco as the “steady compounder” in big‑box retail, with Walmart increasingly framed as the higher‑octane e‑commerce transformation story.
What analysts and models are saying about Costco’s valuation
Despite the 2025 share‑price slump, Wall Street still likes Costco—though often with a caution about valuation.
Street ratings and price targets
Different datasets paint a broadly consistent picture:
- Barchart / Zacks data: “Moderate Buy” consensus, with a mean rating around 4.06 out of 5 (where 5 is Strong Buy), based on about 34 analysts. [37]
- TipRanks: “Moderate Buy” with 16 Buys and 8 Holds in the past three months; average price target ~$1,091.79, implying nearly 25% upside from recent prices. [38]
- StockAnalysis: consensus “Buy” from 24 analysts, with a 12‑month target around $1,071, roughly 22.5% above the current price. [39]
- MarketBeat/other summaries: average target in the $1,020–$1,030 range with a similar “Moderate Buy” stance. [40]
In short, the Street still expects Costco to go higher over the next year, but the projected upside—roughly a low‑to‑mid‑20s percentage gain—is modest compared to the company’s long‑term track record.
Long‑term scenario models
24/7 Wall St. takes a longer view with a detailed price‑projection model: [41]
- Their internal 2025 year‑end target for Costco is about $1,013, based on EPS of $17.80 and a P/E of 51—roughly 13% upside from today’s level.
- For 2030, they imagine Costco earning about $27.70 per share and trading at 37x earnings, which would put the stock near $1,600, roughly 75–80% above current prices.
These forecasts assume:
- Continued high‑single‑digit revenue growth
- Modest margin expansion driven by scale and technology
- A still‑premium but more moderate P/E multiple than today
The critical caveat: Costco’s current P/E near the high 40s already bakes in a lot of optimism, so growth or margin disappointments can cause outsized share‑price swings, as investors have seen in several recent earnings reactions. [42]
Bull vs. bear: what’s at stake in tonight’s report?
The bullish case heading into earnings
Bulls will point to several positives:
- Resilient top‑line growth: November’s 8.1% sales increase and 6.9% comp growth show Costco still gaining ground, even as some peers struggle. [43]
- Membership “moat”: Renewal rates around 90–92%, a membership base exceeding 145 million, and strong loyalty give Costco a recurring‑revenue engine few retailers can match. [44]
- Balance sheet and cash generation: Low leverage and consistent free cash flow give Costco flexibility to keep raising dividends, fund capex and, occasionally, pay special dividends or consider a stock split. [45]
- Long‑term compounding record: Over the last five years, Costco’s stock price has roughly doubled, far outpacing many retail peers, thanks to steady earnings and multiple expansion. [46]
For long‑term, lower‑turnover investors, a temporary slump in a still‑dominant franchise can look like an opportunity—especially when headline worries focus on decelerating, not declining, growth.
The bearish case
Skeptics, however, see reasons to stay cautious:
- Valuation risk: Even after the sell‑off, Costco trades at ~48x trailing earnings and a P/E/G ratio around 6, levels that leave little room for missteps. [47]
- Slowing comps: November’s multi‑year U.S. comp trend cooled, and analysts are watching closely to see whether higher fees and stretched consumers cap further acceleration. [48]
- Macro and political uncertainty: Tariff disputes, potential labor pressures (including prior strike‑authorization rumblings from warehouse workers), and a choppy economic outlook could all pressure margins and sentiment. [49]
- Relative opportunity cost: Some analysts argue that other retailers—particularly Walmart—offer faster growth at lower multiples, making Costco look like an expensive “safety trade” rather than a bargain. [50]
From this perspective, Costco may need a clean beat plus upbeat commentary to justify its multiple and re‑ignite the stock.
What today’s setup means for investors
Heading into Q1 2026 results, Costco’s setup can be summed up as:
- Fundamentals: Solid, with high‑single‑digit sales growth, strong membership metrics and expanding digital channels. [51]
- Sentiment: Cautious, after a rare year of underperformance and worries about moderating U.S. comps. [52]
- Valuation: Still demanding, though less extreme than at prior peaks. [53]
- Event risk: Elevated, with options implying a ~4% swing after earnings versus a historical ~2.5% reaction. [54]
For short‑term traders, the message is clear: expect volatility tonight, and recognize that both an upside breakout and a further pullback are very much on the table, depending on comps, margins and management’s tone on the consumer.
For longer‑term investors, the question is more nuanced: Does tonight’s report reinforce Costco’s long‑term compounding story at slightly better prices, or does it signal that the era of premium‑multiple, double‑digit returns is cooling?
Either way, Costco’s premarket calm belies the importance of the numbers to come.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
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