Updated Dec. 14, 2025
Cotton is ending 2025 with a familiar feel: a tight trading range, stubbornly soft demand signals, and a market that keeps looking for a catalyst big enough to break it out of the low‑60s cents-per-pound zone.
The latest benchmark numbers underline that “range-bound” tone. USDA’s weekly spot market review put average U.S. spot quotations (base quality, seven designated markets) at 60.33 cents/lb for the week ending Dec. 11, while the ICE March 2026 contract ended that same week at 63.97 cents/lb. [1] Meanwhile, international pricing remains notably higher: the Cotlook A Index was 73.95 cents/lb on Dec. 12 (and 74.20 cents/lb on Dec. 11 in USDA’s weekly table). [2]
So where does cotton go for the rest of December 2025? The short answer is that the market still looks like a “two-speed” story—firm-ish international benchmarks versus capped U.S. futures, weighed down by big-picture supply and demand math.
Below is what’s driving price expectations into year-end, and a practical December 2025 cotton forecast based on the latest government outlooks and fresh market commentary.
Where cotton prices stand in mid-December 2025
Several closely watched reference points are clustering in a way that matters for the rest of the month:
- U.S. spot: 7‑market average 60.33 cents/lb (week ending Dec. 11). [3]
- ICE futures (benchmark): March 2026 settlement 63.97 cents/lb at week’s end. [4]
- International indicator: Cotlook A Index 73.95 cents/lb (Dec. 12). [5]
That spread between U.S. futures and the A Index isn’t “wrong”—it reflects differences in location, freight, qualities, and how each benchmark is constructed. But it does shape trader psychology: ICE can feel cheap relative to the A Index, while mills still see plenty of supply, especially with Brazil’s export machine running and global stocks staying elevated.
The newest USDA outlook: more stocks, weaker U.S. price expectations
The most market-moving fundamental update in the last few days is USDA’s December WASDE revision for cotton.
USDA: U.S. production nudged up; mill use cut again
In the December WASDE narrative, USDA raised projected 2025/26 U.S. cotton production to 14.3 million bales (up 1% month over month) and cut U.S. mill use to 1.6 million bales, described as the lowest in almost 150 years. Ending stocks are projected at 4.5 million bales (32.6% of disappearance). [6]
Just as important for expectations into year-end, USDA reduced the projected 2025/26 season‑average farm price to 60 cents/lb. [7]
USDA: global stocks-to-use still heavy
On the global side, USDA described slightly lower production, consumption, and trade, but higher ending stocks, with the global stocks‑to‑use ratio holding at 64%—a level that tends to discourage sustained rallies unless demand clearly improves. [8]
USDA trade team: demand trimmed, trade trimmed, futures “around 64”
USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service also framed the month as a modestly weaker demand picture: global consumption forecast down (to about 118.6 million bales), global trade down (to about 43.7 million bales), and global ending stocks up (to about 76.0 million bales). The same report notes ICE futures had fallen to around 64 cents/lb since the previous WASDE update. [9]
In plain terms, the USDA suite of December updates leans fundamentally bearish-to-neutral: no supply shock, no demand surge, and a price “anchor” (60 cents season average) that makes it harder for the market to justify a lasting move back into the 70s without a new story.
What fresh market commentary says: “caught in the range” near 63–65 cents
Recent Reuters market notes echo what the chart has shown: cotton keeps trying to lift, but it keeps meeting selling.
In one session last week, Reuters reported March cotton around the mid‑64s and quoted a market view that cotton is “caught in the range,” with potential to drift back toward lows around 63 cents. [10] Another Reuters update described demand as sluggish after lackluster export sales, and cited a broker expectation that March could hold a near‑term range from roughly 63.0 to 65.20 cents/lb. [11]
That 63–65-ish band matters because it lines up with how many hedgers behave in December: merchants and producers often use bounces toward resistance to price or add hedges, while mills step in selectively when the market dips.
Demand remains the pressure point: export sales and textiles
The market’s biggest near-term problem is not “too much cotton today,” but too little urgency from buyers.
Reuters reports last week highlighted weak export sales and explicitly tied price softness to demand concerns. [12] In the same flow of coverage, Reuters also made the broader point that when the global economy strengthens, textiles tend to follow—raising cotton demand—implying that macro uncertainty is still a headwind. [13]
On the structural side, USDA’s continuing cuts to U.S. mill use are a reminder that a large share of cotton demand growth has shifted offshore over many years; when global apparel orders slow, cotton feels it quickly. [14]
Supply and trade flows: Brazil’s exports, India’s imports, and Australia’s smaller crop
Brazil: another export-heavy season
Brazil remains central to the global supply narrative. USDA’s Economic Research Service expects Brazil to export a record 14.5 million bales in 2025/26, up year on year, supported by record supplies. [15]
On the ground, Reuters reported Brazilian exporters see 2025/26 shipments rising about 10% to roughly 3.2 million metric tons, citing competitiveness, diversified buyers, and stronger Indian buying. [16]
The implication for December 2025 pricing is straightforward: big Brazilian availability makes it hard for rallies to sustain unless demand clearly accelerates.
India: duty-free window supports near-term import pull
India has been a swing factor in late 2025 because imports became more attractive. Reuters reported India’s cotton imports were projected to hit a record high in 2025/26, supported by duty exemption through Dec. 31 and reduced domestic output. [17]
That dovetails with Reuters’ Brazil export story, which said India’s duty exemption has boosted purchases and that India represented about 16% of Brazil’s cotton exports so far this season. [18]
For December, that duty-free deadline is one of the more concrete “calendar catalysts” the cotton market has: it can influence buying timing, shipping programs, and short-term sentiment.
Australia: ABARES forecasts a smaller 2025/26 crop
Australia is a smaller player than Brazil or the U.S., but its high-quality exports matter. ABARES forecast Australia’s cotton lint production falling 23% to 943,000 tonnes in 2025–26, largely due to reduced planted area (including water availability constraints). [19]
A smaller Australian crop is mildly supportive at the margin—but by itself it has not been enough to flip the global balance sheet.
Macro cross-currents: Fed cuts, the dollar, and energy-linked competition from polyester
Cotton is also trading in a macro environment that has shifted quickly in the last several days.
- Reuters reported the Federal Reserve cut rates this week, while signaling caution about the path ahead. [20]
- Reuters also reported the U.S. dollar index had been weaker in December and had recently bounced off a two-month low. [21]
A softer dollar can help U.S. cotton exports by making dollar-priced commodities cheaper to foreign buyers—one reason Reuters noted ICE cotton found support from a weaker dollar in early-December trading. [22]
Energy matters too, because cotton competes with synthetics in many end uses. In the same Reuters market update, oil was cited as climbing and potentially lifting polyester prices, reducing polyester’s appeal and offering cotton a bit of relative support. [23]
Cotton price forecast for December 2025
Putting the latest USDA fundamentals, trade-flow signals, and near-term market commentary together, December 2025 still looks like a range-first market—unless a demand shock arrives.
Base case (most likely): sideways-to-slightly lower into year-end
Expected range (rest of December 2025):
- ICE March 2026 cotton: 62.5 to 65.5 cents/lb, with the “magnet” zone around 63–65. This aligns with recent Reuters-reported expectations that March cotton may oscillate between roughly 63.0 and 65.20 in the near term. [24]
- U.S. spot (7‑market average): 59.5 to 62.0 cents/lb, tracking the recent 60-handle weekly averages unless basis shifts sharply. [25]
- Cotlook A Index: 72 to 76 cents/lb, consistent with current mid‑70s readings and a market still digesting heavy stocks. [26]
Why this is the base case:
- USDA’s December outlook points to higher U.S. stocks and a lower season-average farm price forecast of 60 cents/lb, which tends to cap aggressive upside in the absence of a demand rebound. [27]
- Global stocks remain high with a 64% stocks-to-use ratio, reinforcing the “plenty of cotton available” narrative. [28]
- Export competition stays intense with Brazil expecting strong shipments and diversified buyers. [29]
Bullish scenario: a late-December breakout above 66 cents
A move above ~66 cents becomes more plausible if multiple supports stack up at once:
- A clear improvement in demand indicators (export sales surprises higher, stronger mill buying),
- The dollar stays soft or weakens further,
- Oil strengthens enough to keep polyester prices firm,
- India’s buying remains active into the end‑December duty‑exemption window. [30]
Even then, global stocks and Brazil’s export capacity are likely to make rallies choppy, not straight lines.
Bearish scenario: slipping back toward 60 cents
A drop toward 60–62 cents becomes more likely if:
- Export sales remain consistently disappointing,
- Risk-off markets strengthen the dollar,
- Global macro sentiment weakens, hitting textile orders,
- USDA revisions keep adding to stocks. [31]
This is also consistent with recent market commentary that cotton could revisit lows around 63 cents and struggle to sustain recoveries without stronger demand. [32]
What longer-term forecasts imply beyond December
Even though this article is focused on December 2025, it’s useful context that institutional and intergovernmental forecasts remain wide—a sign of genuine uncertainty about demand and policy.
- The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has a 2025/26 Cotlook A forecast range of 62 to 91 cents/lb, with a midpoint of 74—close to where the A Index is trading now. [33]
- Reuters also reported J.P. Morgan sees more upside further out, including a 75 cents/lb forecast for Q4 2026. [34]
Those outlooks don’t negate the near-term range—but they do help explain why the market can feel “quiet until it isn’t.”
The bottom line for December 2025
The most defensible cotton price forecast for December 2025 is a continuation of the low‑to‑mid‑60s trading band for ICE futures, with spot pricing hanging closer to 60 cents and the A Index staying in the low-to-mid 70s.
The reason isn’t mystery—it’s math: stocks are high, and the clearest demand signals remain cautious. At the same time, currency moves, energy-linked competition with polyester, and India’s late-December import dynamics are giving the market just enough support to avoid a clean breakdown.
Note: This article is market analysis, not financial advice. Commodity prices are volatile and can move sharply on weather, policy, and macroeconomic surprises.
References
1. www.ams.usda.gov, 2. www.cotlook.com, 3. www.ams.usda.gov, 4. www.ams.usda.gov, 5. www.cotlook.com, 6. www.usda.gov, 7. www.usda.gov, 8. www.usda.gov, 9. apps.fas.usda.gov, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. www.tradingview.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. www.usda.gov, 15. ers.usda.gov, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.tradingview.com, 19. www.agriculture.gov.au, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. www.ams.usda.gov, 26. www.cotlook.com, 27. www.usda.gov, 28. www.usda.gov, 29. www.tradingview.com, 30. www.tradingview.com, 31. www.tradingview.com, 32. www.tradingview.com, 33. icac.org, 34. www.tradingview.com
