Last verified
17.20¢
per lb · August 24, 11:58 GMT
Sugar Futures Retreat as India’s Import Quota Deflates a 27% Rally
Raw sugar’s three-week surge broke sharply on Monday. ICE futures fell 2.3% to 17.20 cents a pound at 11:58 GMT, retreating from last Thursday’s 18.26-cent peak. The reversal followed India’s challenge to the shortage narrative that drove the rally.
Sugar · ICE No. 11 · Market/Asset/Sector
India broke the squeeze. Weather still owns the tail risk.
A 1-million-ton import quota is large versus India’s thin opening buffer, but small beside annual use. That explains the sudden futures retreat without proving a durable global surplus.
Data cut: August 25, 2026, 05:06 EDT · ICE Sugar No. 11 session active (03:30–13:00 EDT)
Session move
−2.3%
Monday intraday Reuters reference
Retreat from peak
−5.8%
versus 18.26¢ on August 20
Peak three-week run
+27%
ADMIS estimate at last week’s high
Price path: squeeze, then policy reset
Reference points combine closing/last prices and the verified August 20 high; they are not a continuous settlement series.
India quota math
Quota: 1.0m tons · opening stocks: 3.5m · consumption midpoint: 28.25m.
Global balance dashboard
| Signal | Reading | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| India 2025/26 output | 27.9m tons | Near use |
| India annual use | 28.0–28.5m | Tight |
| Brazil sugar 2026/27 | 42.89m, −2.9% | Bullish tail |
| Brazil cane ethanol | 29.98bn L, +9.7% | Cane competition |
| U.S. stocks/use 2026/27 | 14.8%, +1.3pp MoM | Buffer |
Scenario map
Bear case · policy arrivesFast Indian quota allocation, smooth Brazilian arrivals and sustained harvest pace keep pressure below the 18.26¢ peak.
Base case · volatile rangeImports cool the squeeze while lower opening stocks and Brazil’s smaller sugar forecast keep weather premium alive.
Bull case · crop risk winsEl Niño damage or a stronger Brazilian ethanol mix tightens export supply and forces a retest of 18.26¢.
What moves next
Indian quota awardsApplication window and actual arrival timing
Brazilian crushCane pace, sugar mix and hedge selling
17.20¢ referenceWhether Monday’s retreat finds support
18.26¢ peakBreakout test for renewed scarcity pricing
Transmission
| Confectionery | High sugar hurts margins |
| Beverages | Input pressure rises |
| Cane processors | Price support helps |
| Ethanol | Competes for cane |
Sources: Reuters, Reuters market report via Business Recorder, Conab, USDA ERS, and ICE. Calculations: 1.0/3.5=28.6%; 1.0/28.25=3.5%; 17.20/18.26−1=−5.8%. Market figures are time-stamped and may change.
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